The St Leger in greyhound racing is... … worth having a look at as a betting proposition.

There is not a lot to go on at the moment because most of the 24 dogs left in at this stage have only have only run once over the 668m at Wimbledon.

I’ve produced a graph of the times available but they are mostly only one black dot below each dog graph.

You might say: well why not wait for another run before making graphs? A reasonable point; except that at this stage in the competition all the best prices are available – and at 1/4 odds for 4 places in the Final!.

There is quite a lot that can be on view when you put all 4 graphs together and there is as much information as the bookies have got – but set out in an easy to assess graphical way that allows you to take a position on what you think the outcome will be. And remember the bookies are locked into their own self-imposed 120% - 140% tissue. You’re not locked into anything. And bookies make mistakes – so if you can see an edge capitalise on it !

It is good to have a strategy; whatever it is - must surely be better than betting dogs on a whim. Surely?

So lets look at a strategy for making some money in the Final; or the individual heats. Whatever.. but you study the graphs and make your own mind up after I’ve put to you what I’m thinking about strategy.

It is nice to bet the winner in the final but it’s not essential and with 24 dogs it could be anything that wins - no matter how good the favourite is.

So the first job is to try to get a couple, at least, to run with and hopefully reach the final.

In order to achieve that the dogs we choose need to have a realistic chance of progressing in first, second or third place into the semi-finals.

To help us choose, all the best ‘split times’ are on the graphs to help us with the fastest starters. Plus – I have put all Ladbrokes prices at the bottom of each dog column. Although that shouldn’t be the biggest influence!

Let’s look at heat No 1 as an example :

Trap 1 looks out of it with poor times and a poor split time. Trap 6 doesn’t look, on the (slim) evidence, although a fast starter, much better even though it won its last heat. It could be a false position because Greenwell Flash… I know to be a good dog.
As I am in the game of eliminating dogs I would pass over trap 5 which looks a bit erratic so out it goes too. Leaving 2, 3 and 4 as realistic options.

I have put red marks at the bottom of all 4 of the graphs to indicate what looks like good prices of dogs with a realistic chance of progressing to the semis (and ultimately to the Finals). Therefore the two with good figures on Heat No 1 (with red marks) would be trap 2 and trap 4, both at 12/1. If you fancy a bet on either of those they are at good prices. I'm passing on those until the semis come up.

I don’t propose to go through every graph right now but I have indicated with the red marking what I would be thinking of betting. Of course I will be totally wrong on some of my choices – but being 'right' is not the point it is about having a method that is important.

At this point I will leave you to work out what you think are good options. I have only made up my mind to bet two at big prices: trap 4 Droopys Riquelme Heat No 3, 40/1 Ladbrokes ( I don’t think it will win the contest but I believe it can make the Final.)

The other is trap 2 Danas Black Heat No4, 100/1 Ladbrokes which could win a very poor heat and maybe, just maybe...
squeeze into the Final. The reason I say that is that I saw the video of its last race on Sky tv where it ran into 2nd place and I have looked at its lifetime form and there are good reasons for the 4 poor runs that you see on the graphs. Of course I don’t expect it to win the competition.

I’m also doing two straight tricasts on Heat No1 (something usually I advise people not to do; see an earlier blog in the archives..) using the number 3 Big Brett Coal (based on the graph data) as a 3rd place banker in both bets. The other two dogs trap 2 Vatican Jinky to win with Iceman Brutus trap 4 to be 2nd on the first bet and Iceman Brutus to win on bet No2 with Vatican Jinky in 2nd place.(Obviously I will lose one of those bets)

You must be wondering why I would do that and not an ‘always tricast’ ? Well first of all that is how I see it turning out. Secondly I don’t think this tricast would pay that much (could be wrong!) with 3 fancied runners, and thirdly two bets at 1 point straight saves 4 points (an always tricast costs 6 points). Of course if they all get placed in the wrong order – I lose, which I’m prepared to do (so that I can use the 4 points ‘saved’(?) somewhere else…) There is plenty more betting to come in this contest…

N.B. Enlarge the graphs with a left click with the mouse to open them up in another window.

Come racing!!