A good Final is in prospect...

...because the 6 dogs in the Greyhound St Leger look evenly matched.

The two ‘significant improvers’– looking at the graph at the bottom of the page - are Lenson Joker, trap 4 and and Westmead Aoifa, trap 6. Both dogs ought to give a good account of themselves and it is difficult to exclude Westmead Aoifa from the calculations because of the reputation of Nick Savva, its trainer, who always gets that little bit extra out of his dogs.

But there are 3 mighty competitors in traps 1, 2, 3; Iceman Brutus, Directors Chair and Spiridon Lewis to contend with, and I think these 3 will fight out the finish.

I’ve put my money on Iceman Brutus, not the fastest starter - that's Directors Chair – but a tough nut to crack . Therefore I’ve increased my stake on him by another 2 points at 6/1 to win the Wimbledon Final.
I hope Local Knowledge trap 5, doesn’t turn up again to win and spoil the party as he did to put my Tricast down in the first semi-final heat!

In the second heat of the semi-final I had my 3 selections in the Tricast frame - but the wrong way round.

My total loss: 4 points. (You could say: it serves me right for not making it a Combination Tricast– it paid £41.21 but I had a definite plan… it just didn’t work this time.)

Sad to say, Greenwell Flash the dog that wrecked my Tricast in the quarter finals, suffered a leg injury and had to be put down; poor thing. It is a great loss to its Scottish trainer.

Study the graph and come to your own conclusions; I’ve told you what I’m doing. Best of luck…

The split times, indicting the fastest starters are listed at the top of the graph and there are 4 rail runners; and two middle seeds in trap 5 and 6.

Come racing!!

Rockingham was 3rd...

...in the final of the Irish Laurels netting me a 25 points return on my 1 point ew bet; 1/4 odds 4 places.

The race was spoiled by the withdrawal of Droopy Robino the odds on ante post favourite. It was fortunate for me, though, having a dog at 100/1 in a 5 dog race.

The Final was won by Catunda Harry, Tyrur Laurel 2nd and Rockingham 3rd. I’ve never taken much notice of the weights of the dogs before but I looked at the result and Rockingham was the lightest by a good margin in the race. It makes me wonder if at this level of racing you need to have a really strong well made dog to succeed ? I may consider that in future.

I lost track a little with my investments on this race (because I often bet after I do my blog) and doing my sums I reckon I made a total profit on the Laurels of 27. 25 points. Which wasn’t bad.

The good thing about betting dogs at this class of racing is that it is likely that dogs will all be trying. It is half the battle if you can put money down with some confidence that it is unlikely that your dog has been stopped!

Now to the Greyhound St Leger…

My tricast was unsuccessful in heat 1 of the Quarter Finals . The dog that let me down was my 3rd place banker: Big Brett Coal. The dog I was scared of Greenwell Flash ran into 3rd spot. So I lost 2 points.

Droopy Requiem (my ante post bet) was in the lead most of the way in its race but could not sustain the pace. Lost 2 points ante post.

Danes Black (also anante post bet) was last, in its race. Lost 2 points. So that’s my ante post bets up in the air!

Of the 9 red marks, indicating dogs that might qualify at a good price, I put at the bottom of the graph on my previous bog …6 out of the 9 got through… and didn’t I just have to pick 2 of the 3 that failed. Yup!!

So, what about the semi finals? You will find them on the two graphs I have supplied. Please enlarge them in a separate window.

Have a look and see if the there are any good bets there. Discreet Cat doesn’t seem to have the figures to qualify in the first heat and Local Knowledge, which I think is a good dog, might struggle to get home.

I’m going to try another straight Tricast bet using trap 1 Directors Chair and trap 2 Iceman Brutus with Vatican Junky as my third place banker. That will be 2 bets at 1 point each bet.

I’m trying the same bet in the 2nd heat using trap 1 Spiridon Louis and trap 6 Westmead Aoifa with Lenson Joker as my 3rd place banker.

I like to set myself little challenges – and Iceman Brutus helped me win a good Tricast doing this same bet earlier in the season. If I lose it will only cost me 4 points…

Looking at Ladbrokes prices for the Final I can see only 4 prices of any value after two heats:

Iceman Brutus: my price1/1; Ladbrokes 6/1– excellent value.
Directors Chair: my price 2/1: Ladbrokes 7/1- excellent value
Westmead Aoifa: my price 2/1 Ladbrokes 4/1- good value.
Greenwell Flash: my price 4/1; Ladbrokes 16/1–very good value.

I fancy Iceman Brutus to win the competition so I will bet it 2 points win. I should really bet it in the semi so that if it wins it pays for the bet!

Come racing!!

The St Leger in greyhound racing is... … worth having a look at as a betting proposition.

There is not a lot to go on at the moment because most of the 24 dogs left in at this stage have only have only run once over the 668m at Wimbledon.

I’ve produced a graph of the times available but they are mostly only one black dot below each dog graph.

You might say: well why not wait for another run before making graphs? A reasonable point; except that at this stage in the competition all the best prices are available – and at 1/4 odds for 4 places in the Final!.

There is quite a lot that can be on view when you put all 4 graphs together and there is as much information as the bookies have got – but set out in an easy to assess graphical way that allows you to take a position on what you think the outcome will be. And remember the bookies are locked into their own self-imposed 120% - 140% tissue. You’re not locked into anything. And bookies make mistakes – so if you can see an edge capitalise on it !

It is good to have a strategy; whatever it is - must surely be better than betting dogs on a whim. Surely?

So lets look at a strategy for making some money in the Final; or the individual heats. Whatever.. but you study the graphs and make your own mind up after I’ve put to you what I’m thinking about strategy.

It is nice to bet the winner in the final but it’s not essential and with 24 dogs it could be anything that wins - no matter how good the favourite is.

So the first job is to try to get a couple, at least, to run with and hopefully reach the final.

In order to achieve that the dogs we choose need to have a realistic chance of progressing in first, second or third place into the semi-finals.

To help us choose, all the best ‘split times’ are on the graphs to help us with the fastest starters. Plus – I have put all Ladbrokes prices at the bottom of each dog column. Although that shouldn’t be the biggest influence!

Let’s look at heat No 1 as an example :

Trap 1 looks out of it with poor times and a poor split time. Trap 6 doesn’t look, on the (slim) evidence, although a fast starter, much better even though it won its last heat. It could be a false position because Greenwell Flash… I know to be a good dog.
As I am in the game of eliminating dogs I would pass over trap 5 which looks a bit erratic so out it goes too. Leaving 2, 3 and 4 as realistic options.

I have put red marks at the bottom of all 4 of the graphs to indicate what looks like good prices of dogs with a realistic chance of progressing to the semis (and ultimately to the Finals). Therefore the two with good figures on Heat No 1 (with red marks) would be trap 2 and trap 4, both at 12/1. If you fancy a bet on either of those they are at good prices. I'm passing on those until the semis come up.

I don’t propose to go through every graph right now but I have indicated with the red marking what I would be thinking of betting. Of course I will be totally wrong on some of my choices – but being 'right' is not the point it is about having a method that is important.

At this point I will leave you to work out what you think are good options. I have only made up my mind to bet two at big prices: trap 4 Droopys Riquelme Heat No 3, 40/1 Ladbrokes ( I don’t think it will win the contest but I believe it can make the Final.)

The other is trap 2 Danas Black Heat No4, 100/1 Ladbrokes which could win a very poor heat and maybe, just maybe...
squeeze into the Final. The reason I say that is that I saw the video of its last race on Sky tv where it ran into 2nd place and I have looked at its lifetime form and there are good reasons for the 4 poor runs that you see on the graphs. Of course I don’t expect it to win the competition.

I’m also doing two straight tricasts on Heat No1 (something usually I advise people not to do; see an earlier blog in the archives..) using the number 3 Big Brett Coal (based on the graph data) as a 3rd place banker in both bets. The other two dogs trap 2 Vatican Jinky to win with Iceman Brutus trap 4 to be 2nd on the first bet and Iceman Brutus to win on bet No2 with Vatican Jinky in 2nd place.(Obviously I will lose one of those bets)

You must be wondering why I would do that and not an ‘always tricast’ ? Well first of all that is how I see it turning out. Secondly I don’t think this tricast would pay that much (could be wrong!) with 3 fancied runners, and thirdly two bets at 1 point straight saves 4 points (an always tricast costs 6 points). Of course if they all get placed in the wrong order – I lose, which I’m prepared to do (so that I can use the 4 points ‘saved’(?) somewhere else…) There is plenty more betting to come in this contest…

N.B. Enlarge the graphs with a left click with the mouse to open them up in another window.

Come racing!!

The Final of Irish Laurels...

..looks like it is at the mercy of the favourite Droopys Robhino; but you never know..

I had mixed fortune in the semi-finals with Nawhobberthadda, which I had bet at 10/1 to win the Final, getting took out by Big Time Gent (a dog I had bet at 25/1 ew to win the semi- final race); with my other dog, Rockingham (which I have bet at 100/1 ew to win the Final, also) running into 3rd spot and qualifying for the Final on 20th October! Well I never…! I did fancy Nawhobberthada to win the Final so I’m sorry I lost it.

Droopys Robhino made one of its worst runs yet at 28.89 sec yet managed to win the first semi-final. It was reported that it got bumped at one point so that accounts for it; and it had a slow start. The split time you see on the graph is an earlier race at the track.

I lost 2 points on Big time Gent and 2 on Rockingham – I bet them, really, to get 2nd place (to pick up ew money) and it didn’t happen. But, again I forgot to mention that I had won 1 and 1/2 points on Nawhobberthada on the Quarter Final. I don’t think I have lost much at this stage as I have had ‘bets to nothing’ – I’ll calculate it next week.

So, let’s take a look at how the graph looks at the final stage..

It’s a case of 4 railers up against two middle runners; although I class Tyrur Laurel (2nd in the 550yards Irish Greyhound Derby this year; this is 525 yards) as a wide runner, after its recent exploits running from trap 6, which seems to suit it. Notice that it has the best split time; from an older race.

Coolnakilla Star looks out of it in trap 5 and Rockingham on the evidence on the graph doesn’t look like it has the figures to win; I was expecting it to improve on its last run and the fact that it was beaten 5 1/2 lengths by Droopys Robhino in the quarter final seems to suggest that it had reached its limit on time performance. If it finishes in the first 4 I will be quite happy because that’s all that I expected of it when I made my bet early on in the competition.

Droopys Robhino should surely win on the times it has put up; although Finals have a habit of going wrong. If Droopy fails I think it will be a good tussle between Spider Said in trap 1,with a fast starting 3.32 sectional time and Tyrur Laurel and – not out of it, even with a 2 poor runs - Catunda Harry in trap3. Let’s hope it will be a good Final. Lots of luck!

The ‘R’ on the graph denotes rails runner and the ‘M’ means middle runner.

Come racing!!

Semi-final stage in the Irish Laurels...
...and it gets more exciting.

Droopys Robhino continues to set up some good times and looks the one to beat in semi–final No1. But often in dog racing there are surprises; that is why it is worth having a look for something at a reasonable price to beat it so I’ve placed a 1 point ew (1/4 odds 1.2.) on an outsider Big Time Gent, trap 3.

I don’t think it is a forlorn hope, because studying the graph for the first semi-final, I see that before the contest really got going it did a 28.47 over the 525yards and it has a 3rd best (shared) trapping time not far off Droopys’ split time although I concede that its last two runs aren’t anything special… they are on a par with the rest except for Nawhobberthadda. At 25/1 I just have to have a go, hoping of course for it to gain a second slot at least. Tyrur Laurel has its favourite trap 6 box and is sure to give it's backers a good run like it did in the Derby.

The second semi-final could be won by any of the six dogs, looking at the graph. Farloe Jester, trap 1, like Big Time Gent above shows a good time on its first run and at 5/1 to win the semi it will have its supporters as will Catunda Harry at 4/5 but I have bet 1 point ew on Rockingham, trap 2 at 10/1
( Ladbrokes prices).

Rockingham ran well against Droopys Robhino in the quarter-final finishing 2nd beaten 5 lengths; but still at a better time than the dogs in the other heats (apart from Nawhobberthadda) - and it has the fastest split time in this semi final. It is still available at 50/1 to win the final ew 1.2.3 places. Winning the final is a tall order but I think it will qualify. I haven’t made up my mind about betting at 50’s.. we will see…!

Rockingham did me a good turn in running into 2nd place in the above race at 16/1 as I picked up 4 points profit which gives me ‘a bet- to- zilch’ (nothing) on Rockingham at 100/1…

My trio bet for small stakes I talked about in my last blog a came to nothing. It was a waste of money.

The bet I put on the Irish Puppy Derby, Kriptonite was 2nd beaten by its litter brother Royal Treason so I lost 2 points.

However, there has been some controversy about the result as it is reported a dog got loose from a holding area and cut across the track and impeded Kriptonite preventing it from winning the race. Paddy Power and Cashmen bookmakers have declared Kryptonite the ‘moral winner’ and will pay out on bets involving that dog. Unfortunately my bet is on at Ladbrokes so I won’t benefit. Look out for those two dogs in the future they should figure prominently in coming events.

There are some good prices still available in the Q/Finals and the Final so please study the graphs and then make up your mind - but don’t blame the graphs if you lose!!

(Left click on the graphs to enlarge them.)

Come racing!!

The Irish Laurels look interesting...

... so let's have a go at finding some each way value.

I have already bet Nawhobberthadda at 10/1 (it is now 12/1) because it had run well in the Irish Greyhound Derby and for no other reason. It is still in the contest with two improving runs so I’m still hopeful of it reaching the final.

Now the quarter final stages have been reached we have some data to go on. I’ve prepared the 4 graphs below which may be helpful when you consider what you might bet. As usual, the Roman Numerals show the best split times and you can enlarge the graphs by a left click on the mouse.

Droopys Robinho looks, on the graph, unbeatable; but we have seen dead certs come a cropper before in these high class events; so have a go and see if you can identify one that will give you a run for your money at a good ew price.

It is useful to see all the times displayed in graphic form as it helps you identify at least a couple in each race that don’t look as though they will ‘cut the mustard’. Usually these are the ones that the bookies have already identified and are at long prices. If you can eliminate a couple it can give you a better ‘edge’ for finding the winner.

I’ve scanned the graph looking for a possible addition to Nawhobberthadda (where do they dream up a name like that? And what the hell does it mean? If it wins I won’t complain; though.) I was looking for an improving dog at a big ew price and I’ve come up with Rockingham, trap 2, in the 3rd Quarter final. It is 3rd best on the sectional time and is within striking distance of crossing that green line on the graph with further improvement and at 100/1 one point ew 4 places seems not a bad bet.

It is in the toughest heat though with Droopys Robinho, trap 5, so I’ll settle for 2nd place; I’ve bet it at 16/1 to get a 2nd spot in the Quarter Finals also, if it does that it pays for the bet in the final. Oh! I forgot to say that I bet Nawhobberthadda in its last race, which it won, so I have ‘a bet to nothing’ in the final.

Searching through the form, and the graphs, here are the dogs I expect to qualify for the semi-finals, in order of
importance :

Quarter Final No 1

Catunda Francie, trap 3.
Spider Said, trap 4.
Catunda Harry, trap1.

Quarter Final No2

Tyrur Lee, trap 1.
Rossacredibility, trap 5.
Cherokee Playboy, trap 2.

Quarter Final No 3

Droopys Robinho, trap5.
Rockingham, trap2.
Roxholme Ryan, trap 6.

Quarter Final No 4

Nawhobberthadda, trap 6.
Catunda Deano, trap 1.
Express Eclipse, trap 3.

There are always upsets in greyhound betting through spills etc. so for that reason ,for a bit of fun with the Quarter Finals, I’ve selected 4 possible ‘upsets’ to put on a low stakes yankee:

Spider Said, trap 4 at 3/1; Cherokee Playboy, trap 2 at 10/1; Roxholme Ryan trap 6 at 5/1. With a bit of luck I might win something…

That’s all for now except to say I hope that Kryptonite wins the Puppy Derby at Harolds Cross, in Ireland tonight, as I have bet it at 4/1.

Come racing!!