Update on Blue Square 480m Final …
… at Coventry stadium.
Minnies Premier was last in a 5 dog race; it simply did not have enough experience but I think it will eventually turn out to be a good dog. I lost 2 points on it.
Barnfield On Air was the worthy winner of the Blue Square 480 Cup.
In the Romford Puppy Derby my two selections Westmead Keawn and Mustang Garcia finished 1st and 4th.
I won 16 points on Westmead Keawn and lost 2 points on Mustang Garcia.
The all England Cup at Newcastle was unprofitable for me as I lost 2 points on Killieford Brave; 6th in the semi final.
Magna Action qualified for the Final but ran a bad race finishing last in a 5 dog race.
Yet this dog, I believe, will improve as it comes from the fine kennel of trainer Barry Draper.
So my profit on those bets was: 8 points. Not a lot; it is not easy to place ante post bets from a great number at entry stage – but it’s certainly interesting as you can track your selections through the heats and get a buzz each time the dogs run.
Win or lose...
I probably won’t be tackling any races until sometime in December, as I have other things to do, but I will be on the look out for more opportunities nonetheless. So look out for my next venture with this on line dog racing diary (or blog, as it is called).
In the meantime…
Come racing!!
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Spiridon Louis deserved to win…
…the Greyhound St Leger.
My selection: Iceman Brutus, in trap 1, ran a fairly good race but unfortunately finished last!
The writing was on the wall early on with the outside dogs winning at Wimbledon, so I was resigned to the fact that Iceman Brutus wasn’t going to win and when it drifted to 7/1 on course, it was clear that the bookies had got it right. Ah! well. Too bad! I lost 14 points on the exercise; from the beginning of the first heats to the final. In ante post betting you are lucky if you get one through to the final, so I was pleased from that point of view, to have a runner.
What about the fate of my other ante post bets?
Well one that I posted a while ago, Temple Lad at 33/1 got to the semi final of the Blue Square 480 Cup at Coventry and then dipped out, it was last, too!
After I had posted that one…I did an additional bet for the Final at Coventry, which is run tonight (Thursday, 8th Nov), called Minnies Premier at 40/1 which has reached the final, although it’s chance of winning doesn’t seem very good as it is up against the Coventry 480 track record holder, Barnfield On Air. As usual, though, I’m only looking for a place as the bet is for 1st 2nd or 3rd spot.
Two other bets I have running in the Romford Puppy Cup Final look quite promising (unfortunately, although I made some graphs on this competition I didn’t manage to post them on my blog ).
The dogs in question are: Westmead Keawn; 2 points win at 5/1 and 2 points win at 3/1; and a 1 point each way bet on Mustang Garcia at 14/1. I would make the most money from these bets if Westmead Keawn won and Mustang Garcia finished in, at least, 3rd place.
The All England Cup is in progress at present, run at Newcastle, so I have placed two ante post bets on: Magna Action at 20/1 and Killieford Brave 33/1; both each way. The selections were made from graphs but they are drawn in the same semi final and only the first two home can reach the final. (There’s 3 semi finals in this competition).
Killieford Brave is a lightly raced greyhound and on looking up it’s lifetime form I see that it was 2nd to Barnfield On Air during it’s career. I guess that’s what swayed me; plus, I think you can’t win at gambling unless you take a chance on something now and then. So even though it may be found 'wanting' I think it is worth taking a chance on.
If you fancy any of the above, feel free to bet them– sorry I can’t post any graphs at present.. but I’ll let you know how I get on– win or lose!
Come racing!!
…the Greyhound St Leger.
My selection: Iceman Brutus, in trap 1, ran a fairly good race but unfortunately finished last!
The writing was on the wall early on with the outside dogs winning at Wimbledon, so I was resigned to the fact that Iceman Brutus wasn’t going to win and when it drifted to 7/1 on course, it was clear that the bookies had got it right. Ah! well. Too bad! I lost 14 points on the exercise; from the beginning of the first heats to the final. In ante post betting you are lucky if you get one through to the final, so I was pleased from that point of view, to have a runner.
What about the fate of my other ante post bets?
Well one that I posted a while ago, Temple Lad at 33/1 got to the semi final of the Blue Square 480 Cup at Coventry and then dipped out, it was last, too!
After I had posted that one…I did an additional bet for the Final at Coventry, which is run tonight (Thursday, 8th Nov), called Minnies Premier at 40/1 which has reached the final, although it’s chance of winning doesn’t seem very good as it is up against the Coventry 480 track record holder, Barnfield On Air. As usual, though, I’m only looking for a place as the bet is for 1st 2nd or 3rd spot.
Two other bets I have running in the Romford Puppy Cup Final look quite promising (unfortunately, although I made some graphs on this competition I didn’t manage to post them on my blog ).
The dogs in question are: Westmead Keawn; 2 points win at 5/1 and 2 points win at 3/1; and a 1 point each way bet on Mustang Garcia at 14/1. I would make the most money from these bets if Westmead Keawn won and Mustang Garcia finished in, at least, 3rd place.
The All England Cup is in progress at present, run at Newcastle, so I have placed two ante post bets on: Magna Action at 20/1 and Killieford Brave 33/1; both each way. The selections were made from graphs but they are drawn in the same semi final and only the first two home can reach the final. (There’s 3 semi finals in this competition).
Killieford Brave is a lightly raced greyhound and on looking up it’s lifetime form I see that it was 2nd to Barnfield On Air during it’s career. I guess that’s what swayed me; plus, I think you can’t win at gambling unless you take a chance on something now and then. So even though it may be found 'wanting' I think it is worth taking a chance on.
If you fancy any of the above, feel free to bet them– sorry I can’t post any graphs at present.. but I’ll let you know how I get on– win or lose!
Come racing!!
Thursday, October 25, 2007
A good Final is in prospect...
...because the 6 dogs in the Greyhound St Leger look evenly matched.
The two ‘significant improvers’– looking at the graph at the bottom of the page - are Lenson Joker, trap 4 and and Westmead Aoifa, trap 6. Both dogs ought to give a good account of themselves and it is difficult to exclude Westmead Aoifa from the calculations because of the reputation of Nick Savva, its trainer, who always gets that little bit extra out of his dogs.
But there are 3 mighty competitors in traps 1, 2, 3; Iceman Brutus, Directors Chair and Spiridon Lewis to contend with, and I think these 3 will fight out the finish.
I’ve put my money on Iceman Brutus, not the fastest starter - that's Directors Chair – but a tough nut to crack . Therefore I’ve increased my stake on him by another 2 points at 6/1 to win the Wimbledon Final.
I hope Local Knowledge trap 5, doesn’t turn up again to win and spoil the party as he did to put my Tricast down in the first semi-final heat!
In the second heat of the semi-final I had my 3 selections in the Tricast frame - but the wrong way round.
My total loss: 4 points. (You could say: it serves me right for not making it a Combination Tricast– it paid £41.21 but I had a definite plan… it just didn’t work this time.)
Sad to say, Greenwell Flash the dog that wrecked my Tricast in the quarter finals, suffered a leg injury and had to be put down; poor thing. It is a great loss to its Scottish trainer.
Study the graph and come to your own conclusions; I’ve told you what I’m doing. Best of luck…
The split times, indicting the fastest starters are listed at the top of the graph and there are 4 rail runners; and two middle seeds in trap 5 and 6.
Come racing!!
...because the 6 dogs in the Greyhound St Leger look evenly matched.
The two ‘significant improvers’– looking at the graph at the bottom of the page - are Lenson Joker, trap 4 and and Westmead Aoifa, trap 6. Both dogs ought to give a good account of themselves and it is difficult to exclude Westmead Aoifa from the calculations because of the reputation of Nick Savva, its trainer, who always gets that little bit extra out of his dogs.
But there are 3 mighty competitors in traps 1, 2, 3; Iceman Brutus, Directors Chair and Spiridon Lewis to contend with, and I think these 3 will fight out the finish.
I’ve put my money on Iceman Brutus, not the fastest starter - that's Directors Chair – but a tough nut to crack . Therefore I’ve increased my stake on him by another 2 points at 6/1 to win the Wimbledon Final.
I hope Local Knowledge trap 5, doesn’t turn up again to win and spoil the party as he did to put my Tricast down in the first semi-final heat!
In the second heat of the semi-final I had my 3 selections in the Tricast frame - but the wrong way round.
My total loss: 4 points. (You could say: it serves me right for not making it a Combination Tricast– it paid £41.21 but I had a definite plan… it just didn’t work this time.)
Sad to say, Greenwell Flash the dog that wrecked my Tricast in the quarter finals, suffered a leg injury and had to be put down; poor thing. It is a great loss to its Scottish trainer.
Study the graph and come to your own conclusions; I’ve told you what I’m doing. Best of luck…
The split times, indicting the fastest starters are listed at the top of the graph and there are 4 rail runners; and two middle seeds in trap 5 and 6.
Come racing!!
Monday, October 22, 2007
Rockingham was 3rd...
...in the final of the Irish Laurels netting me a 25 points return on my 1 point ew bet; 1/4 odds 4 places.
The race was spoiled by the withdrawal of Droopy Robino the odds on ante post favourite. It was fortunate for me, though, having a dog at 100/1 in a 5 dog race.
The Final was won by Catunda Harry, Tyrur Laurel 2nd and Rockingham 3rd. I’ve never taken much notice of the weights of the dogs before but I looked at the result and Rockingham was the lightest by a good margin in the race. It makes me wonder if at this level of racing you need to have a really strong well made dog to succeed ? I may consider that in future.
I lost track a little with my investments on this race (because I often bet after I do my blog) and doing my sums I reckon I made a total profit on the Laurels of 27. 25 points. Which wasn’t bad.
The good thing about betting dogs at this class of racing is that it is likely that dogs will all be trying. It is half the battle if you can put money down with some confidence that it is unlikely that your dog has been stopped!
Now to the Greyhound St Leger…
My tricast was unsuccessful in heat 1 of the Quarter Finals . The dog that let me down was my 3rd place banker: Big Brett Coal. The dog I was scared of Greenwell Flash ran into 3rd spot. So I lost 2 points.
Droopy Requiem (my ante post bet) was in the lead most of the way in its race but could not sustain the pace. Lost 2 points ante post.
Danes Black (also anante post bet) was last, in its race. Lost 2 points. So that’s my ante post bets up in the air!
Of the 9 red marks, indicating dogs that might qualify at a good price, I put at the bottom of the graph on my previous bog …6 out of the 9 got through… and didn’t I just have to pick 2 of the 3 that failed. Yup!!
So, what about the semi finals? You will find them on the two graphs I have supplied. Please enlarge them in a separate window.
Have a look and see if the there are any good bets there. Discreet Cat doesn’t seem to have the figures to qualify in the first heat and Local Knowledge, which I think is a good dog, might struggle to get home.
I’m going to try another straight Tricast bet using trap 1 Directors Chair and trap 2 Iceman Brutus with Vatican Junky as my third place banker. That will be 2 bets at 1 point each bet.
I’m trying the same bet in the 2nd heat using trap 1 Spiridon Louis and trap 6 Westmead Aoifa with Lenson Joker as my 3rd place banker.
I like to set myself little challenges – and Iceman Brutus helped me win a good Tricast doing this same bet earlier in the season. If I lose it will only cost me 4 points…
Looking at Ladbrokes prices for the Final I can see only 4 prices of any value after two heats:
Iceman Brutus: my price1/1; Ladbrokes 6/1– excellent value.
Directors Chair: my price 2/1: Ladbrokes 7/1- excellent value
Westmead Aoifa: my price 2/1 Ladbrokes 4/1- good value.
Greenwell Flash: my price 4/1; Ladbrokes 16/1–very good value.
I fancy Iceman Brutus to win the competition so I will bet it 2 points win. I should really bet it in the semi so that if it wins it pays for the bet!
Come racing!!
...in the final of the Irish Laurels netting me a 25 points return on my 1 point ew bet; 1/4 odds 4 places.
The race was spoiled by the withdrawal of Droopy Robino the odds on ante post favourite. It was fortunate for me, though, having a dog at 100/1 in a 5 dog race.
The Final was won by Catunda Harry, Tyrur Laurel 2nd and Rockingham 3rd. I’ve never taken much notice of the weights of the dogs before but I looked at the result and Rockingham was the lightest by a good margin in the race. It makes me wonder if at this level of racing you need to have a really strong well made dog to succeed ? I may consider that in future.
I lost track a little with my investments on this race (because I often bet after I do my blog) and doing my sums I reckon I made a total profit on the Laurels of 27. 25 points. Which wasn’t bad.
The good thing about betting dogs at this class of racing is that it is likely that dogs will all be trying. It is half the battle if you can put money down with some confidence that it is unlikely that your dog has been stopped!
Now to the Greyhound St Leger…
My tricast was unsuccessful in heat 1 of the Quarter Finals . The dog that let me down was my 3rd place banker: Big Brett Coal. The dog I was scared of Greenwell Flash ran into 3rd spot. So I lost 2 points.
Droopy Requiem (my ante post bet) was in the lead most of the way in its race but could not sustain the pace. Lost 2 points ante post.
Danes Black (also anante post bet) was last, in its race. Lost 2 points. So that’s my ante post bets up in the air!
Of the 9 red marks, indicating dogs that might qualify at a good price, I put at the bottom of the graph on my previous bog …6 out of the 9 got through… and didn’t I just have to pick 2 of the 3 that failed. Yup!!
So, what about the semi finals? You will find them on the two graphs I have supplied. Please enlarge them in a separate window.
Have a look and see if the there are any good bets there. Discreet Cat doesn’t seem to have the figures to qualify in the first heat and Local Knowledge, which I think is a good dog, might struggle to get home.
I’m going to try another straight Tricast bet using trap 1 Directors Chair and trap 2 Iceman Brutus with Vatican Junky as my third place banker. That will be 2 bets at 1 point each bet.
I’m trying the same bet in the 2nd heat using trap 1 Spiridon Louis and trap 6 Westmead Aoifa with Lenson Joker as my 3rd place banker.
I like to set myself little challenges – and Iceman Brutus helped me win a good Tricast doing this same bet earlier in the season. If I lose it will only cost me 4 points…
Looking at Ladbrokes prices for the Final I can see only 4 prices of any value after two heats:
Iceman Brutus: my price1/1; Ladbrokes 6/1– excellent value.
Directors Chair: my price 2/1: Ladbrokes 7/1- excellent value
Westmead Aoifa: my price 2/1 Ladbrokes 4/1- good value.
Greenwell Flash: my price 4/1; Ladbrokes 16/1–very good value.
I fancy Iceman Brutus to win the competition so I will bet it 2 points win. I should really bet it in the semi so that if it wins it pays for the bet!
Come racing!!
Friday, October 19, 2007
The St Leger in greyhound racing is...
… worth having a look at as a betting proposition.
There is not a lot to go on at the moment because most of the 24 dogs left in at this stage have only have only run once over the 668m at Wimbledon.
I’ve produced a graph of the times available but they are mostly only one black dot below each dog graph.
You might say: well why not wait for another run before making graphs? A reasonable point; except that at this stage in the competition all the best prices are available – and at 1/4 odds for 4 places in the Final!.
There is quite a lot that can be on view when you put all 4 graphs together and there is as much information as the bookies have got – but set out in an easy to assess graphical way that allows you to take a position on what you think the outcome will be. And remember the bookies are locked into their own self-imposed 120% - 140% tissue. You’re not locked into anything. And bookies make mistakes – so if you can see an edge capitalise on it !
It is good to have a strategy; whatever it is - must surely be better than betting dogs on a whim. Surely?
So lets look at a strategy for making some money in the Final; or the individual heats. Whatever.. but you study the graphs and make your own mind up after I’ve put to you what I’m thinking about strategy.
It is nice to bet the winner in the final but it’s not essential and with 24 dogs it could be anything that wins - no matter how good the favourite is.
So the first job is to try to get a couple, at least, to run with and hopefully reach the final.
In order to achieve that the dogs we choose need to have a realistic chance of progressing in first, second or third place into the semi-finals.
To help us choose, all the best ‘split times’ are on the graphs to help us with the fastest starters. Plus – I have put all Ladbrokes prices at the bottom of each dog column. Although that shouldn’t be the biggest influence!
Let’s look at heat No 1 as an example :
Trap 1 looks out of it with poor times and a poor split time. Trap 6 doesn’t look, on the (slim) evidence, although a fast starter, much better even though it won its last heat. It could be a false position because Greenwell Flash… I know to be a good dog.
As I am in the game of eliminating dogs I would pass over trap 5 which looks a bit erratic so out it goes too. Leaving 2, 3 and 4 as realistic options.
I have put red marks at the bottom of all 4 of the graphs to indicate what looks like good prices of dogs with a realistic chance of progressing to the semis (and ultimately to the Finals). Therefore the two with good figures on Heat No 1 (with red marks) would be trap 2 and trap 4, both at 12/1. If you fancy a bet on either of those they are at good prices. I'm passing on those until the semis come up.
I don’t propose to go through every graph right now but I have indicated with the red marking what I would be thinking of betting. Of course I will be totally wrong on some of my choices – but being 'right' is not the point it is about having a method that is important.
At this point I will leave you to work out what you think are good options. I have only made up my mind to bet two at big prices: trap 4 Droopys Riquelme Heat No 3, 40/1 Ladbrokes ( I don’t think it will win the contest but I believe it can make the Final.)
The other is trap 2 Danas Black Heat No4, 100/1 Ladbrokes which could win a very poor heat and maybe, just maybe...
squeeze into the Final. The reason I say that is that I saw the video of its last race on Sky tv where it ran into 2nd place and I have looked at its lifetime form and there are good reasons for the 4 poor runs that you see on the graphs. Of course I don’t expect it to win the competition.
I’m also doing two straight tricasts on Heat No1 (something usually I advise people not to do; see an earlier blog in the archives..) using the number 3 Big Brett Coal (based on the graph data) as a 3rd place banker in both bets. The other two dogs trap 2 Vatican Jinky to win with Iceman Brutus trap 4 to be 2nd on the first bet and Iceman Brutus to win on bet No2 with Vatican Jinky in 2nd place.(Obviously I will lose one of those bets)
You must be wondering why I would do that and not an ‘always tricast’ ? Well first of all that is how I see it turning out. Secondly I don’t think this tricast would pay that much (could be wrong!) with 3 fancied runners, and thirdly two bets at 1 point straight saves 4 points (an always tricast costs 6 points). Of course if they all get placed in the wrong order – I lose, which I’m prepared to do (so that I can use the 4 points ‘saved’(?) somewhere else…) There is plenty more betting to come in this contest…
N.B. Enlarge the graphs with a left click with the mouse to open them up in another window.
Come racing!!
… worth having a look at as a betting proposition.There is not a lot to go on at the moment because most of the 24 dogs left in at this stage have only have only run once over the 668m at Wimbledon.
I’ve produced a graph of the times available but they are mostly only one black dot below each dog graph.
You might say: well why not wait for another run before making graphs? A reasonable point; except that at this stage in the competition all the best prices are available – and at 1/4 odds for 4 places in the Final!.
There is quite a lot that can be on view when you put all 4 graphs together and there is as much information as the bookies have got – but set out in an easy to assess graphical way that allows you to take a position on what you think the outcome will be. And remember the bookies are locked into their own self-imposed 120% - 140% tissue. You’re not locked into anything. And bookies make mistakes – so if you can see an edge capitalise on it !
It is good to have a strategy; whatever it is - must surely be better than betting dogs on a whim. Surely?
So lets look at a strategy for making some money in the Final; or the individual heats. Whatever.. but you study the graphs and make your own mind up after I’ve put to you what I’m thinking about strategy.
It is nice to bet the winner in the final but it’s not essential and with 24 dogs it could be anything that wins - no matter how good the favourite is.
So the first job is to try to get a couple, at least, to run with and hopefully reach the final.
In order to achieve that the dogs we choose need to have a realistic chance of progressing in first, second or third place into the semi-finals.
To help us choose, all the best ‘split times’ are on the graphs to help us with the fastest starters. Plus – I have put all Ladbrokes prices at the bottom of each dog column. Although that shouldn’t be the biggest influence!
Let’s look at heat No 1 as an example :
Trap 1 looks out of it with poor times and a poor split time. Trap 6 doesn’t look, on the (slim) evidence, although a fast starter, much better even though it won its last heat. It could be a false position because Greenwell Flash… I know to be a good dog.
As I am in the game of eliminating dogs I would pass over trap 5 which looks a bit erratic so out it goes too. Leaving 2, 3 and 4 as realistic options.
I have put red marks at the bottom of all 4 of the graphs to indicate what looks like good prices of dogs with a realistic chance of progressing to the semis (and ultimately to the Finals). Therefore the two with good figures on Heat No 1 (with red marks) would be trap 2 and trap 4, both at 12/1. If you fancy a bet on either of those they are at good prices. I'm passing on those until the semis come up.
I don’t propose to go through every graph right now but I have indicated with the red marking what I would be thinking of betting. Of course I will be totally wrong on some of my choices – but being 'right' is not the point it is about having a method that is important.
At this point I will leave you to work out what you think are good options. I have only made up my mind to bet two at big prices: trap 4 Droopys Riquelme Heat No 3, 40/1 Ladbrokes ( I don’t think it will win the contest but I believe it can make the Final.)
The other is trap 2 Danas Black Heat No4, 100/1 Ladbrokes which could win a very poor heat and maybe, just maybe...
squeeze into the Final. The reason I say that is that I saw the video of its last race on Sky tv where it ran into 2nd place and I have looked at its lifetime form and there are good reasons for the 4 poor runs that you see on the graphs. Of course I don’t expect it to win the competition.
I’m also doing two straight tricasts on Heat No1 (something usually I advise people not to do; see an earlier blog in the archives..) using the number 3 Big Brett Coal (based on the graph data) as a 3rd place banker in both bets. The other two dogs trap 2 Vatican Jinky to win with Iceman Brutus trap 4 to be 2nd on the first bet and Iceman Brutus to win on bet No2 with Vatican Jinky in 2nd place.(Obviously I will lose one of those bets)
You must be wondering why I would do that and not an ‘always tricast’ ? Well first of all that is how I see it turning out. Secondly I don’t think this tricast would pay that much (could be wrong!) with 3 fancied runners, and thirdly two bets at 1 point straight saves 4 points (an always tricast costs 6 points). Of course if they all get placed in the wrong order – I lose, which I’m prepared to do (so that I can use the 4 points ‘saved’(?) somewhere else…) There is plenty more betting to come in this contest…
N.B. Enlarge the graphs with a left click with the mouse to open them up in another window.
Come racing!!
Monday, October 15, 2007
The Final of Irish Laurels...
..looks like it is at the mercy of the favourite Droopys Robhino; but you never know..
I had mixed fortune in the semi-finals with Nawhobberthadda, which I had bet at 10/1 to win the Final, getting took out by Big Time Gent (a dog I had bet at 25/1 ew to win the semi- final race); with my other dog, Rockingham (which I have bet at 100/1 ew to win the Final, also) running into 3rd spot and qualifying for the Final on 20th October! Well I never…! I did fancy Nawhobberthada to win the Final so I’m sorry I lost it.
Droopys Robhino made one of its worst runs yet at 28.89 sec yet managed to win the first semi-final. It was reported that it got bumped at one point so that accounts for it; and it had a slow start. The split time you see on the graph is an earlier race at the track.
I lost 2 points on Big time Gent and 2 on Rockingham – I bet them, really, to get 2nd place (to pick up ew money) and it didn’t happen. But, again I forgot to mention that I had won 1 and 1/2 points on Nawhobberthada on the Quarter Final. I don’t think I have lost much at this stage as I have had ‘bets to nothing’ – I’ll calculate it next week.
So, let’s take a look at how the graph looks at the final stage..
It’s a case of 4 railers up against two middle runners; although I class Tyrur Laurel (2nd in the 550yards Irish Greyhound Derby this year; this is 525 yards) as a wide runner, after its recent exploits running from trap 6, which seems to suit it. Notice that it has the best split time; from an older race.
Coolnakilla Star looks out of it in trap 5 and Rockingham on the evidence on the graph doesn’t look like it has the figures to win; I was expecting it to improve on its last run and the fact that it was beaten 5 1/2 lengths by Droopys Robhino in the quarter final seems to suggest that it had reached its limit on time performance. If it finishes in the first 4 I will be quite happy because that’s all that I expected of it when I made my bet early on in the competition.
Droopys Robhino should surely win on the times it has put up; although Finals have a habit of going wrong. If Droopy fails I think it will be a good tussle between Spider Said in trap 1,with a fast starting 3.32 sectional time and Tyrur Laurel and – not out of it, even with a 2 poor runs - Catunda Harry in trap3. Let’s hope it will be a good Final. Lots of luck!
The ‘R’ on the graph denotes rails runner and the ‘M’ means middle runner.
Come racing!!
..looks like it is at the mercy of the favourite Droopys Robhino; but you never know..
I had mixed fortune in the semi-finals with Nawhobberthadda, which I had bet at 10/1 to win the Final, getting took out by Big Time Gent (a dog I had bet at 25/1 ew to win the semi- final race); with my other dog, Rockingham (which I have bet at 100/1 ew to win the Final, also) running into 3rd spot and qualifying for the Final on 20th October! Well I never…! I did fancy Nawhobberthada to win the Final so I’m sorry I lost it.
Droopys Robhino made one of its worst runs yet at 28.89 sec yet managed to win the first semi-final. It was reported that it got bumped at one point so that accounts for it; and it had a slow start. The split time you see on the graph is an earlier race at the track.
I lost 2 points on Big time Gent and 2 on Rockingham – I bet them, really, to get 2nd place (to pick up ew money) and it didn’t happen. But, again I forgot to mention that I had won 1 and 1/2 points on Nawhobberthada on the Quarter Final. I don’t think I have lost much at this stage as I have had ‘bets to nothing’ – I’ll calculate it next week.
So, let’s take a look at how the graph looks at the final stage..
It’s a case of 4 railers up against two middle runners; although I class Tyrur Laurel (2nd in the 550yards Irish Greyhound Derby this year; this is 525 yards) as a wide runner, after its recent exploits running from trap 6, which seems to suit it. Notice that it has the best split time; from an older race.
Coolnakilla Star looks out of it in trap 5 and Rockingham on the evidence on the graph doesn’t look like it has the figures to win; I was expecting it to improve on its last run and the fact that it was beaten 5 1/2 lengths by Droopys Robhino in the quarter final seems to suggest that it had reached its limit on time performance. If it finishes in the first 4 I will be quite happy because that’s all that I expected of it when I made my bet early on in the competition.
Droopys Robhino should surely win on the times it has put up; although Finals have a habit of going wrong. If Droopy fails I think it will be a good tussle between Spider Said in trap 1,with a fast starting 3.32 sectional time and Tyrur Laurel and – not out of it, even with a 2 poor runs - Catunda Harry in trap3. Let’s hope it will be a good Final. Lots of luck!
The ‘R’ on the graph denotes rails runner and the ‘M’ means middle runner.
Come racing!!
Monday, October 08, 2007
Semi-final stage in the Irish Laurels...
...and it gets more exciting.
Droopys Robhino continues to set up some good times and looks the one to beat in semi–final No1. But often in dog racing there are surprises; that is why it is worth having a look for something at a reasonable price to beat it so I’ve placed a 1 point ew (1/4 odds 1.2.) on an outsider Big Time Gent, trap 3.
I don’t think it is a forlorn hope, because studying the graph for the first semi-final, I see that before the contest really got going it did a 28.47 over the 525yards and it has a 3rd best (shared) trapping time not far off Droopys’ split time although I concede that its last two runs aren’t anything special… they are on a par with the rest except for Nawhobberthadda. At 25/1 I just have to have a go, hoping of course for it to gain a second slot at least. Tyrur Laurel has its favourite trap 6 box and is sure to give it's backers a good run like it did in the Derby.
The second semi-final could be won by any of the six dogs, looking at the graph. Farloe Jester, trap 1, like Big Time Gent above shows a good time on its first run and at 5/1 to win the semi it will have its supporters as will Catunda Harry at 4/5 but I have bet 1 point ew on Rockingham, trap 2 at 10/1
( Ladbrokes prices).
Rockingham ran well against Droopys Robhino in the quarter-final finishing 2nd beaten 5 lengths; but still at a better time than the dogs in the other heats (apart from Nawhobberthadda) - and it has the fastest split time in this semi final. It is still available at 50/1 to win the final ew 1.2.3 places. Winning the final is a tall order but I think it will qualify. I haven’t made up my mind about betting at 50’s.. we will see…!
Rockingham did me a good turn in running into 2nd place in the above race at 16/1 as I picked up 4 points profit which gives me ‘a bet- to- zilch’ (nothing) on Rockingham at 100/1…
My trio bet for small stakes I talked about in my last blog a came to nothing. It was a waste of money.
The bet I put on the Irish Puppy Derby, Kriptonite was 2nd beaten by its litter brother Royal Treason so I lost 2 points.
However, there has been some controversy about the result as it is reported a dog got loose from a holding area and cut across the track and impeded Kriptonite preventing it from winning the race. Paddy Power and Cashmen bookmakers have declared Kryptonite the ‘moral winner’ and will pay out on bets involving that dog. Unfortunately my bet is on at Ladbrokes so I won’t benefit. Look out for those two dogs in the future they should figure prominently in coming events.
There are some good prices still available in the Q/Finals and the Final so please study the graphs and then make up your mind - but don’t blame the graphs if you lose!!
(Left click on the graphs to enlarge them.)
Come racing!!
...and it gets more exciting.
Droopys Robhino continues to set up some good times and looks the one to beat in semi–final No1. But often in dog racing there are surprises; that is why it is worth having a look for something at a reasonable price to beat it so I’ve placed a 1 point ew (1/4 odds 1.2.) on an outsider Big Time Gent, trap 3.
I don’t think it is a forlorn hope, because studying the graph for the first semi-final, I see that before the contest really got going it did a 28.47 over the 525yards and it has a 3rd best (shared) trapping time not far off Droopys’ split time although I concede that its last two runs aren’t anything special… they are on a par with the rest except for Nawhobberthadda. At 25/1 I just have to have a go, hoping of course for it to gain a second slot at least. Tyrur Laurel has its favourite trap 6 box and is sure to give it's backers a good run like it did in the Derby.
The second semi-final could be won by any of the six dogs, looking at the graph. Farloe Jester, trap 1, like Big Time Gent above shows a good time on its first run and at 5/1 to win the semi it will have its supporters as will Catunda Harry at 4/5 but I have bet 1 point ew on Rockingham, trap 2 at 10/1
( Ladbrokes prices).
Rockingham ran well against Droopys Robhino in the quarter-final finishing 2nd beaten 5 lengths; but still at a better time than the dogs in the other heats (apart from Nawhobberthadda) - and it has the fastest split time in this semi final. It is still available at 50/1 to win the final ew 1.2.3 places. Winning the final is a tall order but I think it will qualify. I haven’t made up my mind about betting at 50’s.. we will see…!
Rockingham did me a good turn in running into 2nd place in the above race at 16/1 as I picked up 4 points profit which gives me ‘a bet- to- zilch’ (nothing) on Rockingham at 100/1…
My trio bet for small stakes I talked about in my last blog a came to nothing. It was a waste of money.
The bet I put on the Irish Puppy Derby, Kriptonite was 2nd beaten by its litter brother Royal Treason so I lost 2 points.
However, there has been some controversy about the result as it is reported a dog got loose from a holding area and cut across the track and impeded Kriptonite preventing it from winning the race. Paddy Power and Cashmen bookmakers have declared Kryptonite the ‘moral winner’ and will pay out on bets involving that dog. Unfortunately my bet is on at Ladbrokes so I won’t benefit. Look out for those two dogs in the future they should figure prominently in coming events.
There are some good prices still available in the Q/Finals and the Final so please study the graphs and then make up your mind - but don’t blame the graphs if you lose!!
(Left click on the graphs to enlarge them.)
Come racing!!
Thursday, October 04, 2007
The Irish Laurels look interesting...
... so let's have a go at finding some each way value.
I have already bet Nawhobberthadda at 10/1 (it is now 12/1) because it had run well in the Irish Greyhound Derby and for no other reason. It is still in the contest with two improving runs so I’m still hopeful of it reaching the final.
Now the quarter final stages have been reached we have some data to go on. I’ve prepared the 4 graphs below which may be helpful when you consider what you might bet. As usual, the Roman Numerals show the best split times and you can enlarge the graphs by a left click on the mouse.
Droopys Robinho looks, on the graph, unbeatable; but we have seen dead certs come a cropper before in these high class events; so have a go and see if you can identify one that will give you a run for your money at a good ew price.
It is useful to see all the times displayed in graphic form as it helps you identify at least a couple in each race that don’t look as though they will ‘cut the mustard’. Usually these are the ones that the bookies have already identified and are at long prices. If you can eliminate a couple it can give you a better ‘edge’ for finding the winner.
I’ve scanned the graph looking for a possible addition to Nawhobberthadda (where do they dream up a name like that? And what the hell does it mean? If it wins I won’t complain; though.) I was looking for an improving dog at a big ew price and I’ve come up with Rockingham, trap 2, in the 3rd Quarter final. It is 3rd best on the sectional time and is within striking distance of crossing that green line on the graph with further improvement and at 100/1 one point ew 4 places seems not a bad bet.
It is in the toughest heat though with Droopys Robinho, trap 5, so I’ll settle for 2nd place; I’ve bet it at 16/1 to get a 2nd spot in the Quarter Finals also, if it does that it pays for the bet in the final. Oh! I forgot to say that I bet Nawhobberthadda in its last race, which it won, so I have ‘a bet to nothing’ in the final.
Searching through the form, and the graphs, here are the dogs I expect to qualify for the semi-finals, in order of
importance :
Quarter Final No 1
Catunda Francie, trap 3.
Spider Said, trap 4.
Catunda Harry, trap1.
Quarter Final No2
Tyrur Lee, trap 1.
Rossacredibility, trap 5.
Cherokee Playboy, trap 2.
Quarter Final No 3
Droopys Robinho, trap5.
Rockingham, trap2.
Roxholme Ryan, trap 6.
Quarter Final No 4
Nawhobberthadda, trap 6.
Catunda Deano, trap 1.
Express Eclipse, trap 3.
There are always upsets in greyhound betting through spills etc. so for that reason ,for a bit of fun with the Quarter Finals, I’ve selected 4 possible ‘upsets’ to put on a low stakes yankee:
Spider Said, trap 4 at 3/1; Cherokee Playboy, trap 2 at 10/1; Roxholme Ryan trap 6 at 5/1. With a bit of luck I might win something…
That’s all for now except to say I hope that Kryptonite wins the Puppy Derby at Harolds Cross, in Ireland tonight, as I have bet it at 4/1.
Come racing!!
... so let's have a go at finding some each way value.
I have already bet Nawhobberthadda at 10/1 (it is now 12/1) because it had run well in the Irish Greyhound Derby and for no other reason. It is still in the contest with two improving runs so I’m still hopeful of it reaching the final.
Now the quarter final stages have been reached we have some data to go on. I’ve prepared the 4 graphs below which may be helpful when you consider what you might bet. As usual, the Roman Numerals show the best split times and you can enlarge the graphs by a left click on the mouse.
Droopys Robinho looks, on the graph, unbeatable; but we have seen dead certs come a cropper before in these high class events; so have a go and see if you can identify one that will give you a run for your money at a good ew price.
It is useful to see all the times displayed in graphic form as it helps you identify at least a couple in each race that don’t look as though they will ‘cut the mustard’. Usually these are the ones that the bookies have already identified and are at long prices. If you can eliminate a couple it can give you a better ‘edge’ for finding the winner.
I’ve scanned the graph looking for a possible addition to Nawhobberthadda (where do they dream up a name like that? And what the hell does it mean? If it wins I won’t complain; though.) I was looking for an improving dog at a big ew price and I’ve come up with Rockingham, trap 2, in the 3rd Quarter final. It is 3rd best on the sectional time and is within striking distance of crossing that green line on the graph with further improvement and at 100/1 one point ew 4 places seems not a bad bet.
It is in the toughest heat though with Droopys Robinho, trap 5, so I’ll settle for 2nd place; I’ve bet it at 16/1 to get a 2nd spot in the Quarter Finals also, if it does that it pays for the bet in the final. Oh! I forgot to say that I bet Nawhobberthadda in its last race, which it won, so I have ‘a bet to nothing’ in the final.
Searching through the form, and the graphs, here are the dogs I expect to qualify for the semi-finals, in order of
importance :
Quarter Final No 1
Catunda Francie, trap 3.
Spider Said, trap 4.
Catunda Harry, trap1.
Quarter Final No2
Tyrur Lee, trap 1.
Rossacredibility, trap 5.
Cherokee Playboy, trap 2.
Quarter Final No 3
Droopys Robinho, trap5.
Rockingham, trap2.
Roxholme Ryan, trap 6.
Quarter Final No 4
Nawhobberthadda, trap 6.
Catunda Deano, trap 1.
Express Eclipse, trap 3.
There are always upsets in greyhound betting through spills etc. so for that reason ,for a bit of fun with the Quarter Finals, I’ve selected 4 possible ‘upsets’ to put on a low stakes yankee:
Spider Said, trap 4 at 3/1; Cherokee Playboy, trap 2 at 10/1; Roxholme Ryan trap 6 at 5/1. With a bit of luck I might win something…
That’s all for now except to say I hope that Kryptonite wins the Puppy Derby at Harolds Cross, in Ireland tonight, as I have bet it at 4/1.
Come racing!!
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Express Ego was my only success…
…in the Irish Greyhound Derby.
The winner was Paul Hennessy’s Tyrur Rhino in 20.73 sec with a 27 spot improvement from its previous best of 30.00 sec. It makes me wonder how such improvement is brought about… But there you have it…
Second dog home, Tyrur Laurel, was trained by the same trainer and Express Ego was 3rd.
My portfolio of bets did not recover from the exit of Farloe Black, Goldstar Lee and Si Senor in the semi finals and Groovy Stan, my last bet in the final, who did not finish, as he suffered a leg injury.
Some of my bets at the beginning of the competition were ‘a bet to nil’ as I had bet the dogs in the heats which they duly won.
The bets falling into this category were :
1 point ew Farloe Black .
1 point ew All Heart.
2 points win Si Senor.
So, there were no losses there.
The bets I lost on, were:
1 point ew Boherash Niall.
1point ew Youllhavetogo.
2 points win Groovy Stan.
Loss: 6 points.
I had a return of 4 points with Express Ego running into 3rd place in the final.
Therefore my total loss was 2 points on the Irish Greyhound Derby.
I’m disappointed I did not make a profit; but maybe better luck next time.
In the meantime …I'll look out for the next ante-post challenge.
Come Racing!!
…in the Irish Greyhound Derby.
The winner was Paul Hennessy’s Tyrur Rhino in 20.73 sec with a 27 spot improvement from its previous best of 30.00 sec. It makes me wonder how such improvement is brought about… But there you have it…
Second dog home, Tyrur Laurel, was trained by the same trainer and Express Ego was 3rd.
My portfolio of bets did not recover from the exit of Farloe Black, Goldstar Lee and Si Senor in the semi finals and Groovy Stan, my last bet in the final, who did not finish, as he suffered a leg injury.
Some of my bets at the beginning of the competition were ‘a bet to nil’ as I had bet the dogs in the heats which they duly won.
The bets falling into this category were :
1 point ew Farloe Black .
1 point ew All Heart.
2 points win Si Senor.
So, there were no losses there.
The bets I lost on, were:
1 point ew Boherash Niall.
1point ew Youllhavetogo.
2 points win Groovy Stan.
Loss: 6 points.
I had a return of 4 points with Express Ego running into 3rd place in the final.
Therefore my total loss was 2 points on the Irish Greyhound Derby.
I’m disappointed I did not make a profit; but maybe better luck next time.
In the meantime …I'll look out for the next ante-post challenge.
Come Racing!!
Thursday, September 06, 2007
The shocks continue in the Irish Greyhound Derby…… with the exit of Farloe Black and Si Senor.
I had 4 dogs left in at the semi-final stage and now I’m left with one: Express Ego.
Of the dogs left in at the Final stage the British dog attached to Pelaw Grange racetrack in England, Groovy Stan, trap 3, has claims on his best time of 29.64 in an earlier round – but is he capable of raising his game to that level again with recent figures on a downturn? I think he can win; because, if he hits top form, 29.64 is the sort of time that a Derby is won in...
The thing that will count against him is, that he has a reputation as a ‘biter’ who turns his head on the run-in if any dog dares to challenge him. Still, I can’t ignore that early 'best time' so I will put a 2 point win bet on him at Ladbrokes price of 4/1 to provide a further shock by being a British winner of the Irish greyhound Derby!
My choice for 2nd place is Ardkill Jamie, trap 1, who has proved how tough he can be; and, as he did in the semi, I think Tyrer Laurel, trap 6, might cruise down the outside and pick up, at least, 3rd place.
I would love Express Ego to win it, but I’ll settle for, at least, 4th place in order to bring back a little e.w. money.
With all the favourites exiting in previous heats, it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to burgle this race–I can but hope!
As usual, study the graph and see what you think. It is interesting to see that the best split time (indicated on the graph by Roman Numerals) is held by Express Ego and an outsider, So Determined, trap 4... Now, that would be a big upset if he won!! (in this Derby - not impossible).
Come racing!!
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Another heat from hell…
…in the Irish Greyhound Derby looms with 5 railers and one wide runner in the first semi-final heat.
The second heat looks more balanced with 2 railers, 2 middles, and 2 wides
So, where are we now with selections? Well I considered the prices on offer and the performances of dogs so far, and decided to take my own advice and added 3 more dogs at tempting prices with 1 point ew bets before the quarter–final stage last Saturday morning. I have to be careful, though, or I will box myself in and end up with no profit. (But then at my stakes... it is only a spot of fun!). It was fortunate that I did the extra bets as I lost Goldstar Lee, which looked a certainty to win its race in, of all things a 5 dog heat – it was last!
So, where are we now with selections? Well I considered the prices on offer and the performances of dogs so far, and decided to take my own advice and added 3 more dogs at tempting prices with 1 point ew bets before the quarter–final stage last Saturday morning. I have to be careful, though, or I will box myself in and end up with no profit. (But then at my stakes... it is only a spot of fun!). It was fortunate that I did the extra bets as I lost Goldstar Lee, which looked a certainty to win its race in, of all things a 5 dog heat – it was last!
The 3 I added were: Youllhavetogo 25/1 ew, Express Ego 20/1 ew and Ciaras Castle 14/1 ew.
Ciaras Castle went straight out that evening and cost me two points - so that was that…
Of the four, I now have 3 of them : Youllhavetogo, trap 2, Farloe Black, trap3, and Express Ego, trap 5, are all drawn together in first semi ; the heat from hell.
With all the shocks so far with the exit of Razldazl Billy, Bar The Devil and Goldstar Lee I won’t be surprised whatever happens.
Now, with the aid of the graphs I have produced, I will take a look at how I think the semi-final heats will go without being biased towards the selections I have already bet.
If Farloe Black, trap 3, in heat No 1 keeps up the good work, and having the best split time of 3.38 sec, I can’t see him being beaten except if there is a mad dash to the rails leading to crowding. I expect his speed will help him, here,to avoid trouble.
My second choice in the same heat is Ardkill Jamie who is a tough dog that has returned to form and won’t give in easily.
Tyrur Laurel should have a dream run in the wide berth, trap 6, and should get a place, and if there is enough trouble could steal it!
I have one selection in the second semi; Si Senor. He certainly has early figures good enough to win the whole contest but will he produce them? He has the best sectional time, very marginally, from Tyrur Rhino and Groovy Stan. If he pings the lids I think he will qualify and, indeed ,win the heat. If he comes back to his best he should be unstoppable.
I’m going for Groovy Stan to be placed 2nd with good early performance figures and a good split time.
I was between So Determined and Toosey Blue, the only English hope, for the 3rd spot. I’m going for So Determined after his last bad run, again, because the split time is slightly better than Toosey Blue’s.
At this stage, and the Final stage, trainers seem to pull out some amazing performances from their charges – remember the improvement of Razldazl Billy to take the crown? So be prepared!
The Roman Numerals on the graphs are the best split times. If you wish to enlarge the graph, left click on the mouse. If you make your selection from the graph and get it wrong, don’t blame the graph – it is only a tool.
Ciaras Castle went straight out that evening and cost me two points - so that was that…
Of the four, I now have 3 of them : Youllhavetogo, trap 2, Farloe Black, trap3, and Express Ego, trap 5, are all drawn together in first semi ; the heat from hell.
With all the shocks so far with the exit of Razldazl Billy, Bar The Devil and Goldstar Lee I won’t be surprised whatever happens.
Now, with the aid of the graphs I have produced, I will take a look at how I think the semi-final heats will go without being biased towards the selections I have already bet.
If Farloe Black, trap 3, in heat No 1 keeps up the good work, and having the best split time of 3.38 sec, I can’t see him being beaten except if there is a mad dash to the rails leading to crowding. I expect his speed will help him, here,to avoid trouble.
My second choice in the same heat is Ardkill Jamie who is a tough dog that has returned to form and won’t give in easily.
Tyrur Laurel should have a dream run in the wide berth, trap 6, and should get a place, and if there is enough trouble could steal it!
I have one selection in the second semi; Si Senor. He certainly has early figures good enough to win the whole contest but will he produce them? He has the best sectional time, very marginally, from Tyrur Rhino and Groovy Stan. If he pings the lids I think he will qualify and, indeed ,win the heat. If he comes back to his best he should be unstoppable.
I’m going for Groovy Stan to be placed 2nd with good early performance figures and a good split time.
I was between So Determined and Toosey Blue, the only English hope, for the 3rd spot. I’m going for So Determined after his last bad run, again, because the split time is slightly better than Toosey Blue’s.
At this stage, and the Final stage, trainers seem to pull out some amazing performances from their charges – remember the improvement of Razldazl Billy to take the crown? So be prepared!
The Roman Numerals on the graphs are the best split times. If you wish to enlarge the graph, left click on the mouse. If you make your selection from the graph and get it wrong, don’t blame the graph – it is only a tool.
Come racing!!
Friday, August 24, 2007
Seven dogs to win the Irish Greyhound Derby …
… could, at the quarter final stage, be the following:
Farloe Black 8/1 Coral
Si Senor 6/1 Coral
Ardkill Jamie 3/1 Coral
Goldstar Lee12/1 Coral
Ciaras Castle 12/1 Coral
and
Express Ego 16/1 Coral
Youllhavetogo 25/1 Coral
The last two being sporting bets at a good each way price 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3.4 in the final.
I’ve been tracking them and come up with the list following list; the last two being no forlorn hopes.
I saw the last round on Sky Sports Channel yesterday; here are my thoughts on the performances backed up by their times over 3 rounds :
Farloe Black –well clear; good effort.
Si Senor – pathetic run into 3rd spot but his figures show he could win it.
Ardkill Jamie - a determined effort; hard fought; but we know he is capable of better.
Goldstar Lee - Impressive run from this dog sired by Brett Lee; capable of going all the way.
Ciaras Castle – very impressive.
Express Ego – a significant improver ran a cracker to beat stable mate Si Senor.( Senor has better figures though).
Youlhavetogo - out like a bullet then fast, fast, fast. Worth an interest at 25/1.( haven’t bet it yet but may do).
So how do I stand at this stage with my bets?
All Heart at 80/1 ran no race at all and was eliminated.
Boherash Niall 150 /1 wasn’t disgraced but also exited.
Goldstar Lee is still in and running well.
Farloe Black is doing well so far.
Si Senor, my main hope, needs to get his act together or he will bite the dust.
As usual in these contests you usually have two of your fancies drawn in the same heat and that is what has happened with Farloe Black and Si Senor. It will give me chance to see who is the better dog and they both might qualify for the semis.
Unfortunately Razledazle Billy ran a stinker and Bar The Devil also and both were eliminated. It is a bit of a shame really to see such good dogs go but I suppose the others have a bit of a chance now.
What of the ‘significant improvers’ I gave in my last blog ?
Catunda Deano ; Ballyard Carl and Forest Scholes all got knocked out (I didn’t bet any of them!).
The others are running ok.
The Quarter Final heats are tomorrow Saturday 25th Aug ; my idea of the 4 heat winners are :
Heat 1 Farloe Black
Heat 2 Ardkill Jamie
Heat 3 Youllhavetogo
Heat 4 Goldstar Lee.
Get on now before the good prices go if you fancy anything from what I’ve said.
Whatever… good luck.
Come racing!!
… could, at the quarter final stage, be the following:
Farloe Black 8/1 Coral
Si Senor 6/1 Coral
Ardkill Jamie 3/1 Coral
Goldstar Lee12/1 Coral
Ciaras Castle 12/1 Coral
and
Express Ego 16/1 Coral
Youllhavetogo 25/1 Coral
The last two being sporting bets at a good each way price 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3.4 in the final.
I’ve been tracking them and come up with the list following list; the last two being no forlorn hopes.
I saw the last round on Sky Sports Channel yesterday; here are my thoughts on the performances backed up by their times over 3 rounds :
Farloe Black –well clear; good effort.
Si Senor – pathetic run into 3rd spot but his figures show he could win it.
Ardkill Jamie - a determined effort; hard fought; but we know he is capable of better.
Goldstar Lee - Impressive run from this dog sired by Brett Lee; capable of going all the way.
Ciaras Castle – very impressive.
Express Ego – a significant improver ran a cracker to beat stable mate Si Senor.( Senor has better figures though).
Youlhavetogo - out like a bullet then fast, fast, fast. Worth an interest at 25/1.( haven’t bet it yet but may do).
So how do I stand at this stage with my bets?
All Heart at 80/1 ran no race at all and was eliminated.
Boherash Niall 150 /1 wasn’t disgraced but also exited.
Goldstar Lee is still in and running well.
Farloe Black is doing well so far.
Si Senor, my main hope, needs to get his act together or he will bite the dust.
As usual in these contests you usually have two of your fancies drawn in the same heat and that is what has happened with Farloe Black and Si Senor. It will give me chance to see who is the better dog and they both might qualify for the semis.
Unfortunately Razledazle Billy ran a stinker and Bar The Devil also and both were eliminated. It is a bit of a shame really to see such good dogs go but I suppose the others have a bit of a chance now.
What of the ‘significant improvers’ I gave in my last blog ?
Catunda Deano ; Ballyard Carl and Forest Scholes all got knocked out (I didn’t bet any of them!).
The others are running ok.
The Quarter Final heats are tomorrow Saturday 25th Aug ; my idea of the 4 heat winners are :
Heat 1 Farloe Black
Heat 2 Ardkill Jamie
Heat 3 Youllhavetogo
Heat 4 Goldstar Lee.
Get on now before the good prices go if you fancy anything from what I’ve said.
Whatever… good luck.
Come racing!!
Friday, August 17, 2007
Update on 2007 Irish Greyhound Derby…
...my 4 dogs ran not bad although I was a bit disappointed in Goldstar Lee’s performance in finishing 3rd in it’s heat ; still, it qualifies for the next round on Saturday,19th August, at Shelbourne Park.
I watched a re-run of the heats on Sky Sports channel and can report that Ardkill Jamie has returned to form and also Bar The Devil who ran a great race
Well, the punters will have a chance to see who is the better dog because they both meet in the opening heat on Saturday with the current derby champion Razldazle Billy who will run from trap 4 . It should be a good contest and I expect all three to go through to the next stage.
I put 1 point win on All Heart at 3/1 to win its heat, which it won in great style, so I have an 80/1 ‘bet to nothing’ on the final and Si Senor won at short odds with Farloe Black at 6/4 also winning; so those bets are also almost paid for. Goldstar Lee cost me 1 point because of its 3rd place.
Farloe Black and All Heart meet in the same heat on Saturday but I expect them both to qualify. Fingers crossed!
In the course of my deliberations on the last heat results I came across what I term ‘Significant Improvers’.
The are :-
Ardkill Jamie (no surprise there.)
Ballymac Flight
Catunda Deano
Ballyard Carl
Jaxareback
Toosey Blue
Forest Scholes (no surprise there after it’s great display in the English Derby.)
They are all available at pretty good prices at this stage but at the moment I will just observe how they run.
One dog, Boherash Niall, who hasn’t an improved run, in fact two at equal times, ran a good race into 2nd place with Ardkill Jamie the winner.
I was impressed by its determination to win so I have placed a 1 point ew bet at 150/1 with Betfred to win the final.
That’s five in my portfolio now to take on the favourite Razldazl Billy. Let’s see how they get on.
Come racing!!
...my 4 dogs ran not bad although I was a bit disappointed in Goldstar Lee’s performance in finishing 3rd in it’s heat ; still, it qualifies for the next round on Saturday,19th August, at Shelbourne Park.
I watched a re-run of the heats on Sky Sports channel and can report that Ardkill Jamie has returned to form and also Bar The Devil who ran a great race
Well, the punters will have a chance to see who is the better dog because they both meet in the opening heat on Saturday with the current derby champion Razldazle Billy who will run from trap 4 . It should be a good contest and I expect all three to go through to the next stage.
I put 1 point win on All Heart at 3/1 to win its heat, which it won in great style, so I have an 80/1 ‘bet to nothing’ on the final and Si Senor won at short odds with Farloe Black at 6/4 also winning; so those bets are also almost paid for. Goldstar Lee cost me 1 point because of its 3rd place.
Farloe Black and All Heart meet in the same heat on Saturday but I expect them both to qualify. Fingers crossed!
In the course of my deliberations on the last heat results I came across what I term ‘Significant Improvers’.
The are :-
Ardkill Jamie (no surprise there.)
Ballymac Flight
Catunda Deano
Ballyard Carl
Jaxareback
Toosey Blue
Forest Scholes (no surprise there after it’s great display in the English Derby.)
They are all available at pretty good prices at this stage but at the moment I will just observe how they run.
One dog, Boherash Niall, who hasn’t an improved run, in fact two at equal times, ran a good race into 2nd place with Ardkill Jamie the winner.
I was impressed by its determination to win so I have placed a 1 point ew bet at 150/1 with Betfred to win the final.
That’s five in my portfolio now to take on the favourite Razldazl Billy. Let’s see how they get on.
Come racing!!
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Razldazl Billy will be a hard nut to crack…
…in the Irish Greyhound Derby at Shelbourne Park in September.
But this is the time to get a big price if you fancy anything to beat him; he’s standing at around 4/1 but I will be looking for a dog to take him on although his recent form in winning the Boyle Sport Champion Stakes makes him a formidable opponent.
Before the Champion Stakes I put a 2 point win bet on Sie Senor at 12/1 to win the Derby, now it is on offer at 14/1 after an indifferent run in that contest..Still, we will see how well it does!
After day two of the 1st round heats I placed a bet 1 point ew at 25/1 on Farloe Black because of his very good time of 29.61 over the 550 yards at Shelbourne Park, I won’t increase it until I see what happens in the next round.
I have made a list of 27 where I think the winner is likely to be found…
I hope it will also indicate where the value could be.
List after the first round proper :-
4/1 favourite Razledazle Billy – awesome winner of 2006 Derby.
Bar The Devil 33/1 Ladbrokes; not running well at present; pass for now.
Holyromanemperor 12/1 Ladbrokes, great time on last run; price too short for my purposes; pass.
Sie Senor 4/1 Coral; not firing at present but still a force to be reckoned with; bet already made.
Farloe Black 25/1 with Coral; good value bet already placed.
Tyrur Bertie 33/1 Coral; 2nd to Razldazle Billy in the Champion Stakes; got a bye in the 1st round, good value bet but I will pass at the moment.
Groovy Stan 25/1 Ladbrokes a significant improver.
Micks Savings 33/1 Ladbrokes; last place in the Champion Stakes but not disgraced; not big enough price. It has stamina, but pass.
Team Captain 33/1 Ladbrokes; beaten a length in a race by Phoenix Paddy, pass for now.
Uncle Jer 66/1 Betfred. Good price for a significant improver. Pass for present.
Alexandrova 33/1 Ladbrokes. A significant improver but will wait and see how it progresses; pass.
Side Sage 25/1 Ladbrokes an improver, pass.
Tyrur Gold 20/1 Ladbrokes 3rd to Farloe Black and Alexandrova in 1st round. Not a bad price but, for now, pass.
Goldstar Lee 33/1 Ladbrokes. A Brett Lee dog. Was 3rd in the Champion Stakes. This dog has battled with the best of them. Definite bet at 33’s.
Aries Son 150/1 Ladbrokes; possibilities, pass
Line Of Fire 25/1; little value bet. Pass
Galdare Charlie 100/1 Ladbrokes. Pass
All Heart 88/1 Ladbrokes . Very promising. Beat Loyal Honcho by 5 lengths. Definite bet.
Ballydoyle Bret 100/1 Betfred. A Brett Lee dog. Will pass at present.
Farloe Jester 33/1 Coral. Pass
Ciaras Castle 50/1 Coral. Promising. Pass.
Large Mac 50/1 Ladbroke. Promising. Pass
Skywalker Dream 200/1 Coral. Pass
Shelbouurne Aston 100/1. Lightly raced. Worth keeping an eye on. For now, pass.
Three dogs that might end up in the final are Forest Scholes 25/1, Ullid Conor 80/1 and Eye On the Veto 40/1 Totesport. But I have to see some improvement in them before I would back them.
In conclusion…
… my additional bets added to Sie Senor and Farloe Black wagers will be Goldstar Lee 33/1 and All heart 80/1 both each way.
Come racing!!
…in the Irish Greyhound Derby at Shelbourne Park in September.
But this is the time to get a big price if you fancy anything to beat him; he’s standing at around 4/1 but I will be looking for a dog to take him on although his recent form in winning the Boyle Sport Champion Stakes makes him a formidable opponent.
Before the Champion Stakes I put a 2 point win bet on Sie Senor at 12/1 to win the Derby, now it is on offer at 14/1 after an indifferent run in that contest..Still, we will see how well it does!
After day two of the 1st round heats I placed a bet 1 point ew at 25/1 on Farloe Black because of his very good time of 29.61 over the 550 yards at Shelbourne Park, I won’t increase it until I see what happens in the next round.
I have made a list of 27 where I think the winner is likely to be found…
I hope it will also indicate where the value could be.
List after the first round proper :-
4/1 favourite Razledazle Billy – awesome winner of 2006 Derby.
Bar The Devil 33/1 Ladbrokes; not running well at present; pass for now.
Holyromanemperor 12/1 Ladbrokes, great time on last run; price too short for my purposes; pass.
Sie Senor 4/1 Coral; not firing at present but still a force to be reckoned with; bet already made.
Farloe Black 25/1 with Coral; good value bet already placed.
Tyrur Bertie 33/1 Coral; 2nd to Razldazle Billy in the Champion Stakes; got a bye in the 1st round, good value bet but I will pass at the moment.
Groovy Stan 25/1 Ladbrokes a significant improver.
Micks Savings 33/1 Ladbrokes; last place in the Champion Stakes but not disgraced; not big enough price. It has stamina, but pass.
Team Captain 33/1 Ladbrokes; beaten a length in a race by Phoenix Paddy, pass for now.
Uncle Jer 66/1 Betfred. Good price for a significant improver. Pass for present.
Alexandrova 33/1 Ladbrokes. A significant improver but will wait and see how it progresses; pass.
Side Sage 25/1 Ladbrokes an improver, pass.
Tyrur Gold 20/1 Ladbrokes 3rd to Farloe Black and Alexandrova in 1st round. Not a bad price but, for now, pass.
Goldstar Lee 33/1 Ladbrokes. A Brett Lee dog. Was 3rd in the Champion Stakes. This dog has battled with the best of them. Definite bet at 33’s.
Aries Son 150/1 Ladbrokes; possibilities, pass
Line Of Fire 25/1; little value bet. Pass
Galdare Charlie 100/1 Ladbrokes. Pass
All Heart 88/1 Ladbrokes . Very promising. Beat Loyal Honcho by 5 lengths. Definite bet.
Ballydoyle Bret 100/1 Betfred. A Brett Lee dog. Will pass at present.
Farloe Jester 33/1 Coral. Pass
Ciaras Castle 50/1 Coral. Promising. Pass.
Large Mac 50/1 Ladbroke. Promising. Pass
Skywalker Dream 200/1 Coral. Pass
Shelbouurne Aston 100/1. Lightly raced. Worth keeping an eye on. For now, pass.
Three dogs that might end up in the final are Forest Scholes 25/1, Ullid Conor 80/1 and Eye On the Veto 40/1 Totesport. But I have to see some improvement in them before I would back them.
In conclusion…
… my additional bets added to Sie Senor and Farloe Black wagers will be Goldstar Lee 33/1 and All heart 80/1 both each way.
Come racing!!
Monday, July 09, 2007
These Westmeads are hard to beat …
… in a final!
Westmead Lord didn’t win a round but wins the final of the Greyhound Derby from trap 6. Take nothing away from this dog it was fast out the traps and stayed on well to resist the challenge of Loyal Honcho (trap 5). How does Nick Savva manage to get such improvement in the Westmeads when it comes to the final ? He is a great trainer; with luck on his side.
Loyal Honcho didn’t trap well and ran only up to its average time and I think that trap 6 would have suited it better. I don’t think it recovered from its poor performance in the semi-final although it was running on at the finish. It wasn’t good enough on the night.
One dog that did improve on its performance, though ,was 3rd placed Forest Scholes (trap 1) with a 28.74 sec time. Could it come back next year and break the bogie of trap 1 (which has never housed the Greyhound Derby winner)? It is a possibility, provided it got through to the final and then was awarded trap 1. You never know. I wonder what the odds would be on that happening? Anyway keep your eye on Forest Scholes in the future.
I bet Amarillo Slim 3rd in last years final and Loyal Honcho 2nd in this years final – maybe I will get the winner of the 2008 renewal. Eh!
Now comes the reckoning: My betting exploits in total cost me a loss of 19 points on the Derby. The only pick-up was the each way money on 14/1 Loyal Honcho for 2nd place. Ah! Well! It was a good try from something around 100 dogs in the contest.
With the number of mishaps in the Derby you couldn’t go to war with only one selection and as they dropped out it became more difficult to make a profit. But as usual I got a lot of entertainment out of trying my hand at picking the winner…
Dream Dogs Competition update? I ended up with 90 points–the winner got 136. So, no luck there!.
We will see what’s next on the agenda…Maybe the Irish Greyhound Derby but I might wait until some heats have been run to get rid of some of the no-hopers...And there are other races to consider. As I said, we'll see..
Come racing!!
… in a final!
Westmead Lord didn’t win a round but wins the final of the Greyhound Derby from trap 6. Take nothing away from this dog it was fast out the traps and stayed on well to resist the challenge of Loyal Honcho (trap 5). How does Nick Savva manage to get such improvement in the Westmeads when it comes to the final ? He is a great trainer; with luck on his side.
Loyal Honcho didn’t trap well and ran only up to its average time and I think that trap 6 would have suited it better. I don’t think it recovered from its poor performance in the semi-final although it was running on at the finish. It wasn’t good enough on the night.
One dog that did improve on its performance, though ,was 3rd placed Forest Scholes (trap 1) with a 28.74 sec time. Could it come back next year and break the bogie of trap 1 (which has never housed the Greyhound Derby winner)? It is a possibility, provided it got through to the final and then was awarded trap 1. You never know. I wonder what the odds would be on that happening? Anyway keep your eye on Forest Scholes in the future.
I bet Amarillo Slim 3rd in last years final and Loyal Honcho 2nd in this years final – maybe I will get the winner of the 2008 renewal. Eh!
Now comes the reckoning: My betting exploits in total cost me a loss of 19 points on the Derby. The only pick-up was the each way money on 14/1 Loyal Honcho for 2nd place. Ah! Well! It was a good try from something around 100 dogs in the contest.
With the number of mishaps in the Derby you couldn’t go to war with only one selection and as they dropped out it became more difficult to make a profit. But as usual I got a lot of entertainment out of trying my hand at picking the winner…
Dream Dogs Competition update? I ended up with 90 points–the winner got 136. So, no luck there!.
We will see what’s next on the agenda…Maybe the Irish Greyhound Derby but I might wait until some heats have been run to get rid of some of the no-hopers...And there are other races to consider. As I said, we'll see..
Come racing!!
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Loyal Honcho could do it...…win the Greyhound Derby; that is.
I was disappointed that Loyal Honcho was beaten into 2nd place by the bitch Dilemmas Flight but there are excuses for that because in the semi-final the traps failed to open and the dogs had to be removed from their traps and checked over by the vet.
It did not affect Dilemmas Flight, a more experienced dog, who flew out of the trap on the second attempt, and showed the field a clean pair of heels all the way to the finish!
Loyal Honcho looked all at sea when it emerged out of its trap and it took a long time to catch Dilemmas Flight; a dog that will take a lot of beating in the final.
Looking at the graph the signs are that the three that ought to be involved in the finish are trap 3 Dillemmas Flight, trap 5 Loyal Honcho and trap 6 Westmead Lord.
Loyal Honcho’s figures show that it has some consistently good times except for the last run which shows a dip; if it can recover from the effects of that last run I think it will win.
Dilemmas Flight’s last 4 runs are ultra-consistent and can’t be ignored but I think Loyal Honcho will just shade it. In fact I have placed a further 4 points win on Honcho at 7/4; but I've missed the value because it is available at 9/4 now.
Westmead Lord’s performance looks on a par with Ullid Connor’s, except for its last run and should run a lively race from the outside trap 6.
But anything can happen in the Derby ; remember how Razldazl Billy came from out of the clouds to pulverise the opposition in last year’s Irish Derby ? I hope Ullid Conor doesn’t do the same!
I have 86 points in the Dream Dogs Competition – the leaders have over 100; so I have no chance.
Come racing!!
Friday, June 29, 2007
Bang!Goes my 66/1 shot in the...
... Greyhound Derby; Farloe Premier who got injured and had to be withdrawn. I thought I had a real chance with it when it reached the semi-finals but it wasn't to be. Ah! Well I've got one left, Loyal Honcho who has a chance of reaching the final. Fingers crossed!
I lost Phoenix Paddy with an injury and Eye Onthe Veto got thumped out of it as well. Such is dog racing...
I've done a couple of graphs to compare the 11 runners in the semi-finals; so take a look to see what you think the possible line up will be in the final.
My assessment of the graphs leads me to believe that Ullid Conor T2, Forest Scholes T3 and Westmead lord from graph No 1 will qualify; and Dilemmas Flight T3, Loyal Honcho T5 and Greenwell StormT6 on graph No 2 will do the business and reach the final. Although I think that Loyal Honcho is going to get a run for the money from Dilemmas Flight - it's not cut and dried yet even though Honcho is 7/4 favourite to win the derby.
Farloe Premier's injury has cost me a runner in the Dream Dogs Competition - I was counting on it getting 10 points.
We'll see what happens on Saturday when the semis are run at Wimbledon...
That's all for now.
Come racing!!
... Greyhound Derby; Farloe Premier who got injured and had to be withdrawn. I thought I had a real chance with it when it reached the semi-finals but it wasn't to be. Ah! Well I've got one left, Loyal Honcho who has a chance of reaching the final. Fingers crossed!
I lost Phoenix Paddy with an injury and Eye Onthe Veto got thumped out of it as well. Such is dog racing...
I've done a couple of graphs to compare the 11 runners in the semi-finals; so take a look to see what you think the possible line up will be in the final.
My assessment of the graphs leads me to believe that Ullid Conor T2, Forest Scholes T3 and Westmead lord from graph No 1 will qualify; and Dilemmas Flight T3, Loyal Honcho T5 and Greenwell StormT6 on graph No 2 will do the business and reach the final. Although I think that Loyal Honcho is going to get a run for the money from Dilemmas Flight - it's not cut and dried yet even though Honcho is 7/4 favourite to win the derby.
Farloe Premier's injury has cost me a runner in the Dream Dogs Competition - I was counting on it getting 10 points. We'll see what happens on Saturday when the semis are run at Wimbledon...
That's all for now.
Come racing!!
Monday, June 25, 2007
The Greyhound Derby is in full swing now…
…so, how are we doing?
Well a mixed bag actually, but that’s no surprise as it is devilishly difficult to get your dogs through to the final. Especially when you are going for big early prices looking for each way value!
After the 3rd round I’ve lost three of my original 6: Tyrur Lad, Barnfield On Air, and Eye Onthe Veto. I was disappointed to lose the last one because I really thought it could go all the way. It got badly bumped and that put it out of the race.
But going into the Quarter Finals I still have Phoenix Paddy, Farloe Premier and Loyal Honcho. I am a sucker when I see an improving dog, and I couldn’t resist an each way punt on Nervous Woody at 66/1 Ladbrokes price to try to make the final frame. It will add to my fun – or my misery. We’ll see…
Remember from my last blog I said I was entering six stables in the Dream Dogs Competition? Well I have one stable doing not too badly having 63 points. I must say, though, this competition is akin to stepping on land mines because as the dogs are eliminated you can keep the points you have accumulated but, obviously, you can’t accrue any more for the particular dog; so it is important to move into the next round with as many dogs as possible.
I have 4 dogs (out of six) left in my 5th stable (not surprisingly named dog-a-roo stable) and as there are 4 quarter final heats I was hoping that the 4 dogs would stay apart. But it wasn’t to be… two dogs are in the same race which means that I can only accrue 36 points instead of 40. If they all get through, they could get more points in the semi-finals and, hopefully, the final.
See how you need luck as well as judgement in dog racing!!
The 4 hopeful dogs in the dog-a-roo stable are:
Blonde Dino (trap 4; heat No1)
Zig Zag Dutchy (trap 4; heat No2)
And in the same race, heat 3:
Ullid Conor (trap2) and Phoenix Paddy (trap 5)
The heats are run at Wimbledon tomorrow, Tuesday 26th June. Wish me luck.
Come racing!!
…so, how are we doing?
Well a mixed bag actually, but that’s no surprise as it is devilishly difficult to get your dogs through to the final. Especially when you are going for big early prices looking for each way value!
After the 3rd round I’ve lost three of my original 6: Tyrur Lad, Barnfield On Air, and Eye Onthe Veto. I was disappointed to lose the last one because I really thought it could go all the way. It got badly bumped and that put it out of the race.
But going into the Quarter Finals I still have Phoenix Paddy, Farloe Premier and Loyal Honcho. I am a sucker when I see an improving dog, and I couldn’t resist an each way punt on Nervous Woody at 66/1 Ladbrokes price to try to make the final frame. It will add to my fun – or my misery. We’ll see…
Remember from my last blog I said I was entering six stables in the Dream Dogs Competition? Well I have one stable doing not too badly having 63 points. I must say, though, this competition is akin to stepping on land mines because as the dogs are eliminated you can keep the points you have accumulated but, obviously, you can’t accrue any more for the particular dog; so it is important to move into the next round with as many dogs as possible.
I have 4 dogs (out of six) left in my 5th stable (not surprisingly named dog-a-roo stable) and as there are 4 quarter final heats I was hoping that the 4 dogs would stay apart. But it wasn’t to be… two dogs are in the same race which means that I can only accrue 36 points instead of 40. If they all get through, they could get more points in the semi-finals and, hopefully, the final.
See how you need luck as well as judgement in dog racing!!
The 4 hopeful dogs in the dog-a-roo stable are:
Blonde Dino (trap 4; heat No1)
Zig Zag Dutchy (trap 4; heat No2)
And in the same race, heat 3:
Ullid Conor (trap2) and Phoenix Paddy (trap 5)
The heats are run at Wimbledon tomorrow, Tuesday 26th June. Wish me luck.
Come racing!!
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
I crashed in flames…
…in the Yarmouth TV Trophy.
The nearest I got with my 5 dogs was a miserable 3rd place with Shelbourne Holly in the heats; so I had no runner in the final; I lost 10 points on this exercise!
It was a tough call with dogs having run over several different distances before running in the 843m marathon. But that’s life..
The winner of the William Hill TV Trophy was Spiridon Louis, second Wise Susie and third Mitzie.
Ok having got that out of the way, what about the Blue Square Greyhound Derby over 480m at Wimbledon on 7th July? I always like to have a go at that. Well the early heats have begun which gives us some information to work on and the second round is on Friday 16th June and Saturday 17th June and I have done some work on trying to find a few hopeful, good price ante-post bets, to run with over the next few weeks.
On an earlier blog I said that Eye Onthe Veto might be a dog to consider if it ran in the Derby and Coral had it priced at 50/1 to win the competition at 1/4 odds e.w.1,2,3,4,5,6 places so I put 1 point e.w. without doing any research on it as I was confident it could put up a good show. Mind you it will have to be on its toes in heat 14 on Saturday as it is up against Geordie Parker, Iceman Ross and Zigzag Dutchy. It won’t be easy but it has to win up against good dogs if it has to win the trophy. I bet it to win its first heat at 6/4which it did, which gives me a ‘bet to nothing’ for the final.
But - there is always a ‘but’- I advocated betting Temple Lad at 50/1 for the Derby last year and it ran in the heats to no avail; and another of my long range selections at that time, Amarrillo Slim, is not running in the event; therefore I’m down 4 points before the Derby really begins . Ah! Well … too bad…
Blue Square and the Racing Post are running a really interesting competition in the Derby called Dream Dogs which has a top prize of £5000 in which I will invest £10. It will take a lot of luck to win it but it will give me enormous fun checking on the result of my selections. I will let you know how I am doing – good or bad.
And so to the Derby proper…
I have been through the form and allotted each of the dogs a rating and my price slot and then compared the bookies prices for ‘value’. This is what I intend to run with:-
Tyrur Lee 20/1 Ladbrokes. My price 7/1.
Farloe Premier 66/1 Betfred . My price 9/1.
Loyal Honcho 16/1 Coral. My price 9/1.
Barnfield On Air 14/1 Ladbrokes My price 9/1.
Eye On the Veto 50/1 Coral. My price 6/1.
Phoenix Paddy 7/1 Betfred. My price 5/1.
All, except Phoenix Paddy, 1 point ew.
Phoenix Paddy will be 2points win only.
I have included all these dogs in my selections for the Dream Dogs comp.
Best of luck with your own selections.
Come racing!!
…in the Yarmouth TV Trophy.
The nearest I got with my 5 dogs was a miserable 3rd place with Shelbourne Holly in the heats; so I had no runner in the final; I lost 10 points on this exercise!
It was a tough call with dogs having run over several different distances before running in the 843m marathon. But that’s life..
The winner of the William Hill TV Trophy was Spiridon Louis, second Wise Susie and third Mitzie.
Ok having got that out of the way, what about the Blue Square Greyhound Derby over 480m at Wimbledon on 7th July? I always like to have a go at that. Well the early heats have begun which gives us some information to work on and the second round is on Friday 16th June and Saturday 17th June and I have done some work on trying to find a few hopeful, good price ante-post bets, to run with over the next few weeks.
On an earlier blog I said that Eye Onthe Veto might be a dog to consider if it ran in the Derby and Coral had it priced at 50/1 to win the competition at 1/4 odds e.w.1,2,3,4,5,6 places so I put 1 point e.w. without doing any research on it as I was confident it could put up a good show. Mind you it will have to be on its toes in heat 14 on Saturday as it is up against Geordie Parker, Iceman Ross and Zigzag Dutchy. It won’t be easy but it has to win up against good dogs if it has to win the trophy. I bet it to win its first heat at 6/4which it did, which gives me a ‘bet to nothing’ for the final.
But - there is always a ‘but’- I advocated betting Temple Lad at 50/1 for the Derby last year and it ran in the heats to no avail; and another of my long range selections at that time, Amarrillo Slim, is not running in the event; therefore I’m down 4 points before the Derby really begins . Ah! Well … too bad…
Blue Square and the Racing Post are running a really interesting competition in the Derby called Dream Dogs which has a top prize of £5000 in which I will invest £10. It will take a lot of luck to win it but it will give me enormous fun checking on the result of my selections. I will let you know how I am doing – good or bad.
And so to the Derby proper…
I have been through the form and allotted each of the dogs a rating and my price slot and then compared the bookies prices for ‘value’. This is what I intend to run with:-
Tyrur Lee 20/1 Ladbrokes. My price 7/1.
Farloe Premier 66/1 Betfred . My price 9/1.
Loyal Honcho 16/1 Coral. My price 9/1.
Barnfield On Air 14/1 Ladbrokes My price 9/1.
Eye On the Veto 50/1 Coral. My price 6/1.
Phoenix Paddy 7/1 Betfred. My price 5/1.
All, except Phoenix Paddy, 1 point ew.
Phoenix Paddy will be 2points win only.
I have included all these dogs in my selections for the Dream Dogs comp.
Best of luck with your own selections.
Come racing!!
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
The 843m greyhound marathon at Yarmouth looks to be an interesting puzzle..
... so let’s have a go at solving it.
I’m talking about the William Hill TV Trophy at Yarmouth Stadium on Tuesday 5th June; the three heats being run tomorrow 30th May.
It is extremely difficult to assess dogs over a distance like this especially as only half the field of the 3 heats have a ‘best time’ over that distance
I’ve examined the information available for the nine runners who have competed over various distances from around 600m to over 800m and have tried to slot them into the list containing the nine runners that have run over the 843m course.
Let’s say that one of the current favourites Spiridon Louis 15/8 looks like it could win this but I’m not sure that Head Iton Jordan at 7/4 from Coventry can do the business. I‘ve no intention of backing either because as usual I will be looking for a good price ‘value’ bet. I think the Hove dog of Brian Clemerson’s Cash For Kate at 5/1 could put up a good show. This one is a value bet but I’m looking for something bigger at what I term ‘excellent value’. It has to be big enough for each way betting at low stakes. I’ve come up with a list of 5 at 1 point ew, 1/4 odds a place, to give me a bit of fun between now and June 5th. I need at least one to get through to the final.
If they all blow up I will have lost 10 points! Which won’t be too bad…
Here goes:
Snappy Girl at 33/1 Ladbrokes.
Shes The Deal at 66/1 Ladbrokes.
Smooth Darika 50/1 Ladbrokes and Coral. (It’s 100/1 with William Hill but we don’t have a Hill’s shop in our town).
Shelbourne Holly 25/1 Ladbrokes.
Teds Anchor 50/1 Coral.
OK - roll the dice and let’s see how I get on…
Come racing!!
... so let’s have a go at solving it.
I’m talking about the William Hill TV Trophy at Yarmouth Stadium on Tuesday 5th June; the three heats being run tomorrow 30th May.
It is extremely difficult to assess dogs over a distance like this especially as only half the field of the 3 heats have a ‘best time’ over that distance
I’ve examined the information available for the nine runners who have competed over various distances from around 600m to over 800m and have tried to slot them into the list containing the nine runners that have run over the 843m course.
Let’s say that one of the current favourites Spiridon Louis 15/8 looks like it could win this but I’m not sure that Head Iton Jordan at 7/4 from Coventry can do the business. I‘ve no intention of backing either because as usual I will be looking for a good price ‘value’ bet. I think the Hove dog of Brian Clemerson’s Cash For Kate at 5/1 could put up a good show. This one is a value bet but I’m looking for something bigger at what I term ‘excellent value’. It has to be big enough for each way betting at low stakes. I’ve come up with a list of 5 at 1 point ew, 1/4 odds a place, to give me a bit of fun between now and June 5th. I need at least one to get through to the final.
If they all blow up I will have lost 10 points! Which won’t be too bad…
Here goes:
Snappy Girl at 33/1 Ladbrokes.
Shes The Deal at 66/1 Ladbrokes.
Smooth Darika 50/1 Ladbrokes and Coral. (It’s 100/1 with William Hill but we don’t have a Hill’s shop in our town).
Shelbourne Holly 25/1 Ladbrokes.
Teds Anchor 50/1 Coral.
OK - roll the dice and let’s see how I get on…
Come racing!!
Saturday, March 10, 2007
The Coventry Emerald Cup ...
...didn't prove to be a winner for me as Eye Onthe Veto won it in good style.
It was a 5 dog race with Iceman Ross in 2nd place and my selection Droopys Wells managing only 3rd place.
I was already in deficit by 6 points and my 5 point win bet on Droopys Wells put me into an 11 point loss on the Emerald Cup.
There was one redeeming thing I can point to, though, and that is one of my selections on the run-up to this contest: Minnies Premier, happened to be running in an Invitation Race on the same evening as the Emerald Cup. I put two points on it and it won at 5/2. So I got a little of my cash back; which wasn't so bad!
I am impressed by the recent form of Eye Onthe Veto and I am beginning to think that it could be a good ante-post bet for the Greyhound Derby at around 50/1...
I'll probably put a 1 point ew bet on it to add to the 2 others I have bet(Temple Lad and Amarillo Slim - although, now, I am not sure Amarillo Slim will run).
Eye Onthe Veto looks good value.
I haven't got anything going on the greyhound front for the moment. I'll probably get something going after the Cheltenham National Hunt Festival which is a horse race meeting I enjoy. For now...
Come racing!!
...didn't prove to be a winner for me as Eye Onthe Veto won it in good style.
It was a 5 dog race with Iceman Ross in 2nd place and my selection Droopys Wells managing only 3rd place.
I was already in deficit by 6 points and my 5 point win bet on Droopys Wells put me into an 11 point loss on the Emerald Cup.
There was one redeeming thing I can point to, though, and that is one of my selections on the run-up to this contest: Minnies Premier, happened to be running in an Invitation Race on the same evening as the Emerald Cup. I put two points on it and it won at 5/2. So I got a little of my cash back; which wasn't so bad!
I am impressed by the recent form of Eye Onthe Veto and I am beginning to think that it could be a good ante-post bet for the Greyhound Derby at around 50/1...
I'll probably put a 1 point ew bet on it to add to the 2 others I have bet(Temple Lad and Amarillo Slim - although, now, I am not sure Amarillo Slim will run).
Eye Onthe Veto looks good value.
I haven't got anything going on the greyhound front for the moment. I'll probably get something going after the Cheltenham National Hunt Festival which is a horse race meeting I enjoy. For now...
Come racing!!
Saturday, February 17, 2007
The 'significant improver' Droopys Wells could win this...
... contest at Coventry.
Tomorrow(Sunday) is the final of the Coventry Emerald cup over 480m and I have prepared a graph of the last few runs at Coventry stadium.
The dog I discarded at the start of this competition, the ex-Irish Droopys Wells, in trap 6 fits the bill as a dog that has improved after each run. Winess its improvement on the graph over its last 4 runs. It has a good split time of 5.42 and the connections of this dog are confident it will put up a good show.
Tomll Fix It, trap 2, has marginally the quickest split time at 5.41 but if it gets out first can it stay in the lead? Its performance, shown on the graph, suggests not; although I haven't forgot about the run of Womble in the Sheffield Steel Cup, who at 25/1, led all the way even - though it did not have anything like the best form!
Well Tutored, trap 3, seems capable of winning this. Look at the first run of it on the graph, the highest peak which was several months ago at Coventry. If it could produce that sort of run it could be a factor in this contest. Personally I think it won't.
Eye Onthe Veto,trap 5, is always good for a strong run but I think the distance is too short for it.
Iceman Ross, trap 4, has 6 consistent runs and is perhaps strong enough to get there. But I have the feeling not this time.
Which leaves us with Cleenas Lady, trap 1, a dog that I thought at the beginning could take this trophy; and its running, as displayed on the graph, bears it out. I have the feeling that perhaps it has had some hard races recently and for that reason I will bet against it.
This is a fascinating contest that could go any way but I intend to bet 5 points win on Droopys Wells to do the business. Here's hoping ...
I have been disappointed with this competition, though, as apart from a few snippets in the Racing Post the Emerald Cup has had very little publicity and it has been largely ignored by the bookies. Half the fun of looking at a contest in the opening heats is the challenge of sorting out a couple of ante-post bets, at good prices, to run with right to the final. But I have not been able to get ant ante-post prices for the heats, or the semis. Indeed I don't know any prices for the final, and it is run tomorrow; shame on the bookies.
I lost my last bet on this contest when Minnies Premier ran into 4th place and failed to qualify for the final so I am in deficit to 6+ points. I hope Droopys Wells can get it back...
Come racing!!
... contest at Coventry.
Tomorrow(Sunday) is the final of the Coventry Emerald cup over 480m and I have prepared a graph of the last few runs at Coventry stadium.
The dog I discarded at the start of this competition, the ex-Irish Droopys Wells, in trap 6 fits the bill as a dog that has improved after each run. Winess its improvement on the graph over its last 4 runs. It has a good split time of 5.42 and the connections of this dog are confident it will put up a good show.
Tomll Fix It, trap 2, has marginally the quickest split time at 5.41 but if it gets out first can it stay in the lead? Its performance, shown on the graph, suggests not; although I haven't forgot about the run of Womble in the Sheffield Steel Cup, who at 25/1, led all the way even - though it did not have anything like the best form!
Well Tutored, trap 3, seems capable of winning this. Look at the first run of it on the graph, the highest peak which was several months ago at Coventry. If it could produce that sort of run it could be a factor in this contest. Personally I think it won't.
Eye Onthe Veto,trap 5, is always good for a strong run but I think the distance is too short for it.
Iceman Ross, trap 4, has 6 consistent runs and is perhaps strong enough to get there. But I have the feeling not this time.
Which leaves us with Cleenas Lady, trap 1, a dog that I thought at the beginning could take this trophy; and its running, as displayed on the graph, bears it out. I have the feeling that perhaps it has had some hard races recently and for that reason I will bet against it.
This is a fascinating contest that could go any way but I intend to bet 5 points win on Droopys Wells to do the business. Here's hoping ...
I have been disappointed with this competition, though, as apart from a few snippets in the Racing Post the Emerald Cup has had very little publicity and it has been largely ignored by the bookies. Half the fun of looking at a contest in the opening heats is the challenge of sorting out a couple of ante-post bets, at good prices, to run with right to the final. But I have not been able to get ant ante-post prices for the heats, or the semis. Indeed I don't know any prices for the final, and it is run tomorrow; shame on the bookies.
I lost my last bet on this contest when Minnies Premier ran into 4th place and failed to qualify for the final so I am in deficit to 6+ points. I hope Droopys Wells can get it back...
Come racing!!
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Just shows how wrong you can be...
...with dog racing!
In heat 1 of the Emerald Cup at Coventry I advocated that Bossmans Bridge, Hee Haws Barney and Droopys Wells should be left out of calculations and these are the three that got through to the semi- finals tonight! what do I know? Still that's greyhound racing for you.
I bet : Barnfield On Air 1 point win in the first heat- lost 1 point.
: Centaur Trooper 1 point win 2nd heat- lost.
: Minnies Premier 1 point win in the 3rd heat- won at 11/8.
: Cleenas Lady 1 point win in 4th heat - 2nd; so lost 1 point.
: A 1 point each way accumulator on all 4- so lost 2 points.
My total loss was: 4.63 points.
As for the semi-finals tonight I am afraid I haven't had time to look at the 2 races in any depth (well, it is Valentines Day!) so I have just put a 2 point win on Minnies Premier - the only winner I had in the heats - and I am hoping for the best; to get me out of trouble.
It will be interesting to see who gets through to the final then we can have a closer look at trying to find the cup winner.
For now...no graphs tonight...
Come racing!!
...with dog racing!
In heat 1 of the Emerald Cup at Coventry I advocated that Bossmans Bridge, Hee Haws Barney and Droopys Wells should be left out of calculations and these are the three that got through to the semi- finals tonight! what do I know? Still that's greyhound racing for you.
I bet : Barnfield On Air 1 point win in the first heat- lost 1 point.
: Centaur Trooper 1 point win 2nd heat- lost.
: Minnies Premier 1 point win in the 3rd heat- won at 11/8.
: Cleenas Lady 1 point win in 4th heat - 2nd; so lost 1 point.
: A 1 point each way accumulator on all 4- so lost 2 points.
My total loss was: 4.63 points.
As for the semi-finals tonight I am afraid I haven't had time to look at the 2 races in any depth (well, it is Valentines Day!) so I have just put a 2 point win on Minnies Premier - the only winner I had in the heats - and I am hoping for the best; to get me out of trouble.
It will be interesting to see who gets through to the final then we can have a closer look at trying to find the cup winner.
For now...no graphs tonight...
Come racing!!
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
The Emerald Cup at Coventry looks a good 480m race...
...to start looking for value.
I've done 4 graphs of the greyhound performances over their last 6 or 7 runs on the Coventry track. Unfortunately a couple of dogs have made only one run which doesn't give us a lot to go on.
Anyway, I've assumed that three dogs from each heat will go through to make up the semi-finals.
You will have to enlarge the graphs to see the runs in greater detail but that should be easy enough to do.
I have chosen 3 from each heat that I have ranked as (A (B and (C in preference. See what you think ought to be 1st , 2nd and 3rd.
Heat 1 - I think that Bossmans Bridge and trap 6 Droopys Wells don't look to be in the ball park so I have discarded them. I have gone for (A Barnfield On Air in trap 1, (B Zig zag Dutchman trap 4 and (C Fear Armani trap 2.
Heat 2 -It's between ( A Centaur Trooper trap 3 and (B Bailiff Diesel trap 1.
(C Eye Onthe Veto is my 3rd choice - I think the distance is too short for it to win.
Heat 3 - This is a much too competitive a heat to call (look at the graph). If you are thinking of leaving out a heat this is it. My choice all the same is :-
(A Minnies Premier trap 6, (B Discreet Cat trap3 and (C Ronnies Champion trap 1. If I were to predict 4th it would be trap 5 Reagrove Roe. That's how close I rate it.
Heat 4 - If Well Tutored in trap 5 were to come back to good form it would be a force to be reckoned with but my selections are :- (A Cleenas Lady trap1, Iceman Ross in trap 6 and Well Tutored trap 5.
Overall reading the graphs points to Cleenas Lady to win the Emerald Cup outright.
I haven't any prices yet; the 4 heats are run at Coventry on Sunday. Let's see how far out I am. I'll let you know!
Come racing!!
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