dog-a-roo successes…
…and failures 2006.

I started the year with my ‘tutorial’ for newcomers to dog racing which is entitled, Dog Racing: Unravelling the Mystique which I hope some people might have found useful. I included a download of my ‘plot-the dogs’ graph which, if you downloaded it, you could have experimented with.

I consider it a success to have published that work on the internet for use by ordinary punters–and I am pleased to say that is different to what others have written on the subject of greyhound racing; and that gives me a glow!!

In May I started to look for dogs that could be bet at good ante-post prices at 1/4 odds a place 1.2.3.4. or in some cases 3 places.

Without too much detail (some of it is painful!) this is my update:

I started with Amaarillo Slim in the Greyhound Derby which I bet at ew odds of 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 twice and 8/1. Amarillo Slim was beaten into 3rd place by Westmead Hawk . So, I collected ew money on those bets. But I also had an article on those bets posted on the Inside-Edge magazine and the Total Gambler magazine. I received £25 for the article.

In June I allocated my own ratings and priced up the whole of the Irish Greyhound Derby in anticipation of placing some early bets at good prices.

I took a fancy to Droopys Electric early on and tried to get the price of 20/1 from an irate and unhelpful counter assistant in a local betting shop who insisted that I couldn’t get a bet on, this early in the year.

I told her PaddyPower bookmakers had prices available and that she should ring up her area office and enquire on my behalf. She didn’t want to do it and as she walked towards the phone she said, over her shoulder, ‘They won’t have prices – I’m telling you!’

She was on the phone for some minutes.

Put the phone back on its cradle and strode over to where I was leaning on the counter, with my two elbows for support. I could see she was raging as I looked at her expectantly; and I said a silly thing that caused her to flip… I looked into her eyes and said, in a quiet voice: ’And the Banker says…?’

You should have seen her face when she said through gritted teeth, ‘Never mind what the Banker says…’ (She knew I was taking a rise out of her because of her attitude).

‘Droopys Electric is 20/1!… and people who bet dogs and horses are only fools,’ she finished tritely.

By this time I had a big smile on my face while I completed the transaction but I wondered why people take jobs that they obviously don’t like. In the event Droopys Electric didn’t win the Irish Derby … Razldazl Billy did.

That was a sort of speculative bet I put on before I had really looked at the Derby in some depth.

My bets that I did collect some money on in the Irish Derby were: Antrim Classic 33/1 2nd and Skywalker Magic 3rd at 50/1.

In July I then lost my ante-post bet on Door Latch which dropped out tamely in the Peterborough Veteran’s Derby, but my bet on Temple Lad in the Greyhound Puppy Derby paid off with a 2nd place at 50/1.

Next on the agenda in August I had Lundhill Flash 3rd at 16/1 in the Northumberland Plate.

I used my blog at this point to discuss betting in a handicap such as this race and I tried to explain as best I could the ‘R’ factor which indicated how many lengths the best, or ‘scratch’ dog, gave to other runners. I hope that particular blog was useful to some people.

Then onto September with the Sheffield Steel Cup in my sights.

I took the opportunity to talk about using the Dutching Calculator which allows you to bet on two or more selections to get the same return no matter which one wins.

I tried it out on this race with two selections and a 7 point bet on Droopys Sami and Farloe Hobbs. I lost out to Womble which won, priced at 25/1 !!

The Wimbledon Grand National in October was a race where I had 3 dogs through to the final: Custom Paul 12/1, Druids Scully 20/1 and Snazzy Time 50/1 and ended up with only one getting 2nd place. (But I can’t remember which one).

I had a 2 point deficit in early October in the Irish Puppy Derby even though I had two in the final: Winetavern Henry 14/1 and Rusheen Hondo. Oran Majestic won it and it is a dog we should look out for next year.

October 21st my selection in the Irish Laurels : Disco Stu was 3rd at 25/1, but I lost on other bets.

The end of October/early November I bet Fabulous Sophie which was outclassed in the Wimbledon Greyhound St Leger.
The Leger was won in good style by Ninja Blue. I lost 11 points on that race.

In November I bet Broadacres Bob at 33/1 in the Nottingham Eclipse . It ran 2nd to Clash Harmonica, who won by 4 lengths.

The last big race of the year that I tackled was the Romford Essex Vase. I bet Ninja Blue as my main hope to beat Eye Onthe Veto but it finished 5th costing me my biggest loss of 15 1/2 points

There you have it. I’m not sure if I made a profit on the year or not but if I didn’t, it did not cost me a lot; and I had a great deal of interest in doing it.

I have given you the main details. I bet in quarter-finals and semi–finals and sometimes with wins in those races I was really onto a ‘bet to nothing’ which is a good position to get into. And I ran with several selections based on what I considered ‘value bets’ as it is really difficult to pick just one dog to win out of 100 dogs.

Let’s see how I get on next year. If you follow this blog perhaps you would like to make a comment; I’d really appreciate that.

You can post a comment on the bottom right hand corner of this blog or email me on : crawley1000@msn.com

Happy New Year everyone.

Come racing!!

Ninja Blue ran 'like a drain'...
...finishing 5th in the Essex Vase.

The bookies had this race made up to a tee with the favourite Eye Onthe Veto winning in splendid style, with Westmead Aoifa in 2nd place and Bubbly Casino in the 3rd spot.

The writing was on the wall for Ninja Blue, who was suffering the effect of recent hard races, drifting from 10/1 to 12/1. So I got this one so wrong!

Ah! well there's always more races to have a go at next year!

My total losses on this race was: 15 1/2 points, as I did an 'allways trio' with Eye Onthe Veto, Westmead Aoifa and Ninja Blue for 3 points; which of course Ninja Blue spoiled.

My graph in the last blog pointed to the first two home. (I should have done a straight forecast - easy in hindsight isn't it? That's what I get for being too greedy!)

(Doesn't it get you when dog owner's run the words together with names such as: Eye Onthe Veto? - What the hell for ? And what the heck does it mean?)

I'll be doing an update of my 'dog-racing year' in my next blog ...

In the meantime...

Come racing!!

'Eye' is the fastest starter in the Essex Vase but...
...can it win this contest?

I think the bookies have got it right with the short prices of Eye Onthe Veto and Westmead Aoifa; it looks like a toss-up between the two, if you study the graph. Eye Onthe Veto I think can just shade it.

It's a dog I highlighted in my blog on the Nottingham Eclipse that made a really good run, that I thought might have been a fluke. It seems it wasn't !
(I think it finished last in that race though - but there has been some improvement since then).

There didn't seem much point in looking for a value bet in this race but Ninja Blue, given its fine reputation, looks overpriced at 10/1 Coral's price.

As my only representative I hope it does win but I will not be adding it to my present bets as it looks up against it this time!

My heart was ruling my head when I bet Side Leg at 66/1,which didn't survive the last round; but you have to take a chance now and again. Side Leg should win some good races in the future...

Come racing!!
 

The Romford Essex Vase moves to the semi-final stage...

...with three good races featuring Ninja Blue in the 1st semi, Westmaid Aoifa in the 2nd semi and Eye Onthe Veto with a good chance in the third semi.

I made a list of the 18 runners based on earlier races and the times in the first heats then and allotted my prices depending where the dogs ranked on my list. Each dog was given a number from 1 to 18.

I used the list to sort out the best value in order to increase my portfolio which only had Ninja Blue remaining (see last blog).

From the list I then selected one more dog to run with in the Final.

It was Side Leg at 66/1 with Betfred 1/4 odds a place 1,2.3; which I bet 1 point ew.

I was only looking for a dog that could, perhaps, make it through to the Final and then get placed (16 1/2 points 1,2,3) .

I then set out the 3 semi-finals, with six dogs in each, and then using the NUMBERS on the master list as a guide - depending on where they came on the list- used them to allocate prices in the 3 semis.

In each semi the 3 lowest numbers were called A. B, C .

Like this:-

18 Blonde Ozzy
13 Shelbourne Ryan
9 Westfield Max (B) 2/1 my price; 7/1 Coral's odds.
10 Blissful Classic (C) 3/1; Coral 7/4; no value.
1 Ninja Blue (A) 1/1; Coral 13/8; slight value.

The other 2 semis were done in the same way and these are the value bets from those races : Side Leg my price 2/1; Coral 14/1.
In the last semi: Bubbly Tojo my price 1/1; Coral 5/2; slight value.

I've bet Side Leg 1 point ew at 14/1 in the 2nd semi; and 2 points win Ninja Blue at 13/8 in the 1st semi.

Did my heart rule my head ? We'll see, after tonight!

Come racing !!

The Romford Essex Vase over 575 metres...
.
..is a quite famous greyhound race first run in 1939.

I thought I would have a go at it even though it has 36 dogs in six heats.

I've done a fair amount of work on it analysing all the dogs but I didn't have time to put my selections on my blog.

This is what I came up with:

Ninja Blue at my price of 5/1 to win the final; 2 points win at Coral's price of 8/1 (good value).

Rio Gigalo at Coral's odds of 66/1; 1 point ew 1,2,3,4. My price : 8/1.

The first heats have been run and my bets in the heats were:

1 point win Rio Gigalo which lost.( It had won 3 Open races on the trot!)
1 point win Bubbly Tojo at 6/4; won.
1 point win Side Leg; 2nd. This was 100/1 at the start. (Though I didn't bet it to win the Final - it might be worth adding to the list but its time was not outstanding)

I was betting trying to weigh up the opposition in each of three heats.

Ninja Blue was 2nd in its heat to Westmead Aoifa; the winning time being 35.83 sec. Westmead Aoifa will take a bit of beating in this contest...

So my book is in deficit already to 2 1/2 points.

I've lost out with Rio Gigalo failing to qualify but I still have Ninja Blue to fly the flag!

And there will be more opportunity to add to my portfolio after I have
assessed the time in the first heats. They are run on Wednesday so I'll try to sort out some more bets before that! Have faith!

Come racing!!