Handicap of handicappers…

… That’s the Northumberland Plate.

Three heats of handicap races have been run leaving three winners and three runners-up to contest the Northumberland Plate Final.

This provides us with a conundrum about the likely winner of this race.

I’ve not seen any article on handicapping dog races so, from what I know, let’s try and work it out…

The first thing we know is that if one dog in a race beats another dog by 1 length (roughly a metre) it is deemed to have beaten it by o.o8 seconds.

Half a length would be 0.04 and a head would be 0.02.

In Ireland it would be deemed 0.06 for a yard; as they race in yards.

When preparing a handicap race let’s assume dog ‘A’ has done the fastest time of all six dogs and has won over 670 metres in 40.00 seconds.

This will be placed in trap 6 in the ‘scratch’ position as the superior dog.

Let’s assume dog ‘F’ has done the worst time over 670m in 41.10 seconds; it will be placed in trap 1; as the inferior dog.

We have to work out how many metres trap 1 should be placed ahead of trap 6…

Subtract the time of the superior dog ‘A’ (40.00 sec) from the inferior dog ‘F’ (41.10 sec)

41.10 sec minus 40.00 sec = 1.10 sec.

Divide 0.08 sec (deemed 1 length) into 1.10 sec = 13.75 (deemed 13.75 lengths).

Therefore trap 1 would be placed 13.75 metres (rounded up to 14 metres) ahead of trap 6.

The other dogs B C D and E will be treated in a similar way with the, ‘bench mark,’ superior ‘A’ dog’s time subtracted from each dogs’ time to establish the number of metres BCD and E will be ahead.

The ‘metres ahead’ for dogs on the race card is referred to as ‘R’ metres. The ‘R’ means: Received. That is lengths received from the superior dog ‘A’ in trap 6.
Trap 6 is described on the race card as: ‘Scr’ meaning scratch.

In the example above R14 means trap 1 has: 14 lengths start on trap 6.

Now to turn to the Northumberland Plate; I hope the two dogs I have in it, Droopys Rokocoko a worthy 2nd favourite in trap 6 and Lundhill Flash in trap 4 do well but a lot depends on how the traps have been allocated.

I heard one commentator on tv saying that as far as possible the dogs in the final would keep the same traps. I’m in the dark about how the draw was made and I certainly don’t know at this stage, what, if any, ‘R’ lengths have been allotted; presumably they will be allotted as it is a handicap. I will find out on Tuesday when the race is run.

Based on the calculated times issued on the six dogs, in my view the traps should be as follows with Droopys Rokocoko in scratch position in trap 6 with a best calculated time of 41.71.

Droopys Rokocoko 41.71 Trap 6
Portant Lady 41.92 Trap 5
Lundhill Flash 41.93 Trap 4
Riverview Toby 42.03 Trap 3
Time and Tide 42.10 Trap 2
Belpac Tomas 42.24 Trap 1

But the actual allocation of the traps is much different. So therefore I believe that there is a possibility that the traps allocated leaves us with room to exploit the differences in what, theoretically, they should be; to what they actually are!

I have listed them with comments about the treatment of the dogs. These are the actual trap placings, with the sponsor’s ( William Hill) odds :-

Trap 6 Droopys Rokocoko – correct trap; worthy scratch dog 11/4
Trap 5 Time And Tide – badly treated; a mountain to climb 6/1
Trap 4 Lundhill Flash – correct trap, even chance, no excuses 7/2
Trap 3 Portant Lady - well in; ought to be in trap 5;V/G value 11/2
Trap 2 Belpac Tomas - no favours; should be in trap 1; possible 7/1
Trap 1 Riverview Toby- really well in; how did it get this trap? 9/4

See what you think about this race and see if you can spot the winner; as my two are in the correct traps I’m quite pleased; but I might have little side bet as Potent Lady is very good value and Riverview Toby will never have a better chance of glory!

I hope this has been helpful…

Come racing!!