The Wimbledon Grand National is next on the agenda…
…I thought I would have a go at a greyhound hurdle race and what better than the Grand National run over 460 metres at Wimbledon?
There has been one round of heats so there is not a lot to go on with only one run. Nevertheless I have prepared a chart with all the times so far. My strategy is to play it a little like the football pools and bet a few hopefuls to see where that takes us.
Here are the times converted to seconds /metre; see if we can spot any significant improvers after the semi-finals; and during this exercise.
Knockafurtig 61/82; (fastest so far)
Then the next group:
Custom Paul 62/08; Jills Fault 62/13; Baran Geronimo 62/13; Druids Sully 62/15; Suit Man 62/19; Xamax Mr Grumpy 62/21; Droopys Campo 62/28; Snazzy Time 62/28; Thats The Bullet 62/28; Dechardon 62/30; Heavens Supreme 62/45; Kelso Brumo 62/47; Ballymoyer Mick 62/78;
And finally the slowest ; so far:
Druids Forrest 63/04; Ballyeacle 63/15; Taipan 63/21; Liscarney Jack 63/21.
Knockafurtig and Thats The Bullet are the current favourites with Taipan (which was slow) fairly well up the list. The bookies must be expecting Taipan to improve…
Well the layers can control the ante post prices but they can’t control the draw for the 3 semi- finals; so there are some interesting couplings in there.
Lets look at the semi-finals. I’ve not put them in trap order. I have arranged them in pace order as shown in my list. The top dogs are the quickest on what evidence we have so far.
Semi-final 1 :-
Jills Fault 62/13; 9/2 odds
Snazzy Time 62/28; 50/1 odds
Kelso Brumo 62/47; 33/1 odds
Dechardon 62/30; 66/1 odds
Taipan 63/21; 6/1 odds
Semi –final 2:-
Knockafurtig 61/82; 4/1 odds ( but unbelievably 8/1 with Coral)
Custom Paul 61/08; 12/1 odds
Baran Geronimo 62/13; 20/1 odds
Droopys Campo 62/28; 20/1 odds
Druids Forrest 63/04; 20/1 odds
Ballyeacle 63/15; 33/1 odds
Semi final 3:-
Druids Sully 62/15; 20/1 odds
Suit Man 62/19; 5/1 odds
Xamax Mr Grundy 62/21; 40/1 odds
Thats The Bullet 62/28; 7/2 odds
Ballymore Mick 62/78; 16/1 odds
Liscarney Jack 63/21; 40/1 odds
Study those figures if you want to bet ante-post; 1/4 odds a place 1.2.3.
My selections are:
1 point ew Snazzy Time 50/1 Coral
1 point ew Druids Sully 20/1 Coral
1 point win Custom Paul 12/1 Coral
1 point ew Xamax Mr Grundy 40/1 Ladbroke
There will be the opportunity to bet my selections in the semi-finals which might pay for my ante post bets if I’m lucky. We will see.
Mind you the 8/1 on offer for Knockafurtig with Coral does look tempting as a good win bet…
Come racing!!
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Saturday, September 23, 2006
Womble brings me down to earth…
… with a bump!! Ouch!
It is never a surprise in dog racing when the outsider wins; Womble, trap 4, won at 25/1 and left the bookies smiling. Its price was 50/1 ante-post earlier this week.
It was first out of the traps and was never headed. Fear Me, trap5, ran into 2nd position with Droopys Sami 3rd. Although it had improved its time the race wasn’t a particularly fast time. It was 29.39 secs. I’m sure we will hear more about this dog, though.
I couldn’t make up my mind on this race and ended up backing Droopys Sami and Farloe Hobbs.
I decided I would risk 7 points on this race using a Dutching Calculator to work out what I should put on each dog.
A Dutching Calculator can be accessed at ‘Tools’ on www.oddschecker.com
This is how it works:
My two selections were priced at 15/8 and 3/1.
The first thing to do is to change the fractions to decimal and add 1 (for the stake).
So, 15/8 = 15 divided by 8 = 1.875. Then add 1 = 2.875.
Next : 3+1 = 4.
Enter 2.875 in the first field of the calculator; and then enter 4 in the second field.
Enter the total staked, 7 points, in the Total Staked field
Press the button marked Recalculate and the calculator shows the stake required for each selection that will return the same amount no matter which selection wins.
In this case I wanted a 5 point profit so my stake was actually 4.32 points on the 15/8 shot and 3.11 points on the 3/1 dog. If either selection had won the return would have been 12.43 points; which included the 5 point profit.
The calculator will take up to 12 selections in horse racing and it can be used in football bets if, for instance, you fancy that a certain team won’t get defeated, but you don’t know whether your team will win or draw, then you can bet it for a win and a draw with the Dutching Calculator and return the same profit; either way.
The Sheffield Steel City Cup was a big let down for me and for most of the punters but at least it gave me the opportunity to talk about the Dutching Calculator…
Come racing!!
… with a bump!! Ouch!
It is never a surprise in dog racing when the outsider wins; Womble, trap 4, won at 25/1 and left the bookies smiling. Its price was 50/1 ante-post earlier this week.
It was first out of the traps and was never headed. Fear Me, trap5, ran into 2nd position with Droopys Sami 3rd. Although it had improved its time the race wasn’t a particularly fast time. It was 29.39 secs. I’m sure we will hear more about this dog, though.
I couldn’t make up my mind on this race and ended up backing Droopys Sami and Farloe Hobbs.
I decided I would risk 7 points on this race using a Dutching Calculator to work out what I should put on each dog.
A Dutching Calculator can be accessed at ‘Tools’ on www.oddschecker.com
This is how it works:
My two selections were priced at 15/8 and 3/1.
The first thing to do is to change the fractions to decimal and add 1 (for the stake).
So, 15/8 = 15 divided by 8 = 1.875. Then add 1 = 2.875.
Next : 3+1 = 4.
Enter 2.875 in the first field of the calculator; and then enter 4 in the second field.
Enter the total staked, 7 points, in the Total Staked field
Press the button marked Recalculate and the calculator shows the stake required for each selection that will return the same amount no matter which selection wins.
In this case I wanted a 5 point profit so my stake was actually 4.32 points on the 15/8 shot and 3.11 points on the 3/1 dog. If either selection had won the return would have been 12.43 points; which included the 5 point profit.
The calculator will take up to 12 selections in horse racing and it can be used in football bets if, for instance, you fancy that a certain team won’t get defeated, but you don’t know whether your team will win or draw, then you can bet it for a win and a draw with the Dutching Calculator and return the same profit; either way.
The Sheffield Steel City Cup was a big let down for me and for most of the punters but at least it gave me the opportunity to talk about the Dutching Calculator…
Come racing!!
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Sheffield Steel City Cup...
...I haven't followed the heats of this 500m competition; but I have found time to make a graph which has 2 runs on it (the heat and the semi-final) but it is highly illuminatimg, for all that.
Droopys Sami is an interesting dog having only run two times in its career; both runs in the 29.20 range. It looks, in the graph, like a worthy, if inexperienced, favourite at around 7/4. If it can duplicate its last run it should be good enough to win this contest.
Examining the graph, again, the dog that could rob Droopys of victory appears to be Farloe Hobbs. At around 3/1 it seems like the next logical best bet if you want to take on the favourite.
You would need at least a 5 point stake to make any money out of this race. I will bet one or the other but will leave it until the Final on Saturday to bet as I could lose my stake if one of them is withdrawn.
The bookies odds are at the top of the graph; the price tissue I have made is at the bottom. I've put 2/1 Farloe Hobbs; the bookies have got it at least 3/1 or 100/30, so in my book that makes it a 'value' bet.
I like betting 'value,' so that might be just what I will plonk for.We'll see...
Examine the graph; make up your own mind, it's your money!
Come racing!!
...I haven't followed the heats of this 500m competition; but I have found time to make a graph which has 2 runs on it (the heat and the semi-final) but it is highly illuminatimg, for all that.
Droopys Sami is an interesting dog having only run two times in its career; both runs in the 29.20 range. It looks, in the graph, like a worthy, if inexperienced, favourite at around 7/4. If it can duplicate its last run it should be good enough to win this contest.
Examining the graph, again, the dog that could rob Droopys of victory appears to be Farloe Hobbs. At around 3/1 it seems like the next logical best bet if you want to take on the favourite.
You would need at least a 5 point stake to make any money out of this race. I will bet one or the other but will leave it until the Final on Saturday to bet as I could lose my stake if one of them is withdrawn.
The bookies odds are at the top of the graph; the price tissue I have made is at the bottom. I've put 2/1 Farloe Hobbs; the bookies have got it at least 3/1 or 100/30, so in my book that makes it a 'value' bet.
I like betting 'value,' so that might be just what I will plonk for.We'll see...
Examine the graph; make up your own mind, it's your money!
Come racing!!
Riverview Toby sees them all off…
…The Final of the Northumberland Plate was an exciting event with trap 1 Riverview Toby triumphing over Belpac Tomas, trap 2, with Lundhill Flash,scratch dog, running from trap 6 into 3rd place.
The trap ‘R’ numbers, showing the lengths received, were printed in the Racing Post on Tuesday: -
Droopys Rocokoko R3 – means 3 metres off of the 670 metres = 667m.
Time and Time Again R5 – 5m off = 665m
Lundhill Flash R5 –5m off = 665m
Portant Lady R6 – 6m off = 664m
Bellpac Tomas R8 – 8m off = 662m
Riverview Toby R10–10m off = 660m
I was amazed at the leeway Riverview Toby got with, effectively, a 7 metre start (although listed 10 metres, as Droopys Rokocoko was given R3 metres from the starting line).
I spoke to an old hand at the game, called Ginger, who told me that in handicaps such as this the dogs keep their handicap marks throughout the heats. He said that the original 'scratch' dog at the beginning of the competition must have been knocked out in the heats! So there you have it. No wonder Riverview Toby looked such a good thing!
My total outlay on the heats and the Final was 10 points and as I had already picked up 14 points in the heats and Droopys Rokocoko made 3rd place at 12/1 (I got 3 points return) making 17 points, my total profit was 7 points.
I learned some things about this excercise on handicaps but I wouldn't mind betting that a lot of punters don't know what they are betting on when it comes to dog racing handicaps.
I for one, will know next time. Well done those who bet Riverview Toby !
Hopefully my next blog will contain a graph of the Steel City Cup at Sheffield on Saturday - if I get around to it...
Come racing!!
…The Final of the Northumberland Plate was an exciting event with trap 1 Riverview Toby triumphing over Belpac Tomas, trap 2, with Lundhill Flash,scratch dog, running from trap 6 into 3rd place.
The trap ‘R’ numbers, showing the lengths received, were printed in the Racing Post on Tuesday: -
Droopys Rocokoko R3 – means 3 metres off of the 670 metres = 667m.
Time and Time Again R5 – 5m off = 665m
Lundhill Flash R5 –5m off = 665m
Portant Lady R6 – 6m off = 664m
Bellpac Tomas R8 – 8m off = 662m
Riverview Toby R10–10m off = 660m
I was amazed at the leeway Riverview Toby got with, effectively, a 7 metre start (although listed 10 metres, as Droopys Rokocoko was given R3 metres from the starting line).
I spoke to an old hand at the game, called Ginger, who told me that in handicaps such as this the dogs keep their handicap marks throughout the heats. He said that the original 'scratch' dog at the beginning of the competition must have been knocked out in the heats! So there you have it. No wonder Riverview Toby looked such a good thing!
My total outlay on the heats and the Final was 10 points and as I had already picked up 14 points in the heats and Droopys Rokocoko made 3rd place at 12/1 (I got 3 points return) making 17 points, my total profit was 7 points.
I learned some things about this excercise on handicaps but I wouldn't mind betting that a lot of punters don't know what they are betting on when it comes to dog racing handicaps.
I for one, will know next time. Well done those who bet Riverview Toby !
Hopefully my next blog will contain a graph of the Steel City Cup at Sheffield on Saturday - if I get around to it...
Come racing!!
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Handicap of handicappers…
… That’s the Northumberland Plate.
Three heats of handicap races have been run leaving three winners and three runners-up to contest the Northumberland Plate Final.
This provides us with a conundrum about the likely winner of this race.
I’ve not seen any article on handicapping dog races so, from what I know, let’s try and work it out…
The first thing we know is that if one dog in a race beats another dog by 1 length (roughly a metre) it is deemed to have beaten it by o.o8 seconds.
Half a length would be 0.04 and a head would be 0.02.
In Ireland it would be deemed 0.06 for a yard; as they race in yards.
When preparing a handicap race let’s assume dog ‘A’ has done the fastest time of all six dogs and has won over 670 metres in 40.00 seconds.
This will be placed in trap 6 in the ‘scratch’ position as the superior dog.
Let’s assume dog ‘F’ has done the worst time over 670m in 41.10 seconds; it will be placed in trap 1; as the inferior dog.
We have to work out how many metres trap 1 should be placed ahead of trap 6…
Subtract the time of the superior dog ‘A’ (40.00 sec) from the inferior dog ‘F’ (41.10 sec)
41.10 sec minus 40.00 sec = 1.10 sec.
Divide 0.08 sec (deemed 1 length) into 1.10 sec = 13.75 (deemed 13.75 lengths).
Therefore trap 1 would be placed 13.75 metres (rounded up to 14 metres) ahead of trap 6.
The other dogs B C D and E will be treated in a similar way with the, ‘bench mark,’ superior ‘A’ dog’s time subtracted from each dogs’ time to establish the number of metres BCD and E will be ahead.
The ‘metres ahead’ for dogs on the race card is referred to as ‘R’ metres. The ‘R’ means: Received. That is lengths received from the superior dog ‘A’ in trap 6.
Trap 6 is described on the race card as: ‘Scr’ meaning scratch.
In the example above R14 means trap 1 has: 14 lengths start on trap 6.
Now to turn to the Northumberland Plate; I hope the two dogs I have in it, Droopys Rokocoko a worthy 2nd favourite in trap 6 and Lundhill Flash in trap 4 do well but a lot depends on how the traps have been allocated.
I heard one commentator on tv saying that as far as possible the dogs in the final would keep the same traps. I’m in the dark about how the draw was made and I certainly don’t know at this stage, what, if any, ‘R’ lengths have been allotted; presumably they will be allotted as it is a handicap. I will find out on Tuesday when the race is run.
Based on the calculated times issued on the six dogs, in my view the traps should be as follows with Droopys Rokocoko in scratch position in trap 6 with a best calculated time of 41.71.
Droopys Rokocoko 41.71 Trap 6
Portant Lady 41.92 Trap 5
Lundhill Flash 41.93 Trap 4
Riverview Toby 42.03 Trap 3
Time and Tide 42.10 Trap 2
Belpac Tomas 42.24 Trap 1
But the actual allocation of the traps is much different. So therefore I believe that there is a possibility that the traps allocated leaves us with room to exploit the differences in what, theoretically, they should be; to what they actually are!
I have listed them with comments about the treatment of the dogs. These are the actual trap placings, with the sponsor’s ( William Hill) odds :-
Trap 6 Droopys Rokocoko – correct trap; worthy scratch dog 11/4
Trap 5 Time And Tide – badly treated; a mountain to climb 6/1
Trap 4 Lundhill Flash – correct trap, even chance, no excuses 7/2
Trap 3 Portant Lady - well in; ought to be in trap 5;V/G value 11/2
Trap 2 Belpac Tomas - no favours; should be in trap 1; possible 7/1
Trap 1 Riverview Toby- really well in; how did it get this trap? 9/4
See what you think about this race and see if you can spot the winner; as my two are in the correct traps I’m quite pleased; but I might have little side bet as Potent Lady is very good value and Riverview Toby will never have a better chance of glory!
I hope this has been helpful…
Come racing!!
… That’s the Northumberland Plate.
Three heats of handicap races have been run leaving three winners and three runners-up to contest the Northumberland Plate Final.
This provides us with a conundrum about the likely winner of this race.
I’ve not seen any article on handicapping dog races so, from what I know, let’s try and work it out…
The first thing we know is that if one dog in a race beats another dog by 1 length (roughly a metre) it is deemed to have beaten it by o.o8 seconds.
Half a length would be 0.04 and a head would be 0.02.
In Ireland it would be deemed 0.06 for a yard; as they race in yards.
When preparing a handicap race let’s assume dog ‘A’ has done the fastest time of all six dogs and has won over 670 metres in 40.00 seconds.
This will be placed in trap 6 in the ‘scratch’ position as the superior dog.
Let’s assume dog ‘F’ has done the worst time over 670m in 41.10 seconds; it will be placed in trap 1; as the inferior dog.
We have to work out how many metres trap 1 should be placed ahead of trap 6…
Subtract the time of the superior dog ‘A’ (40.00 sec) from the inferior dog ‘F’ (41.10 sec)
41.10 sec minus 40.00 sec = 1.10 sec.
Divide 0.08 sec (deemed 1 length) into 1.10 sec = 13.75 (deemed 13.75 lengths).
Therefore trap 1 would be placed 13.75 metres (rounded up to 14 metres) ahead of trap 6.
The other dogs B C D and E will be treated in a similar way with the, ‘bench mark,’ superior ‘A’ dog’s time subtracted from each dogs’ time to establish the number of metres BCD and E will be ahead.
The ‘metres ahead’ for dogs on the race card is referred to as ‘R’ metres. The ‘R’ means: Received. That is lengths received from the superior dog ‘A’ in trap 6.
Trap 6 is described on the race card as: ‘Scr’ meaning scratch.
In the example above R14 means trap 1 has: 14 lengths start on trap 6.
Now to turn to the Northumberland Plate; I hope the two dogs I have in it, Droopys Rokocoko a worthy 2nd favourite in trap 6 and Lundhill Flash in trap 4 do well but a lot depends on how the traps have been allocated.
I heard one commentator on tv saying that as far as possible the dogs in the final would keep the same traps. I’m in the dark about how the draw was made and I certainly don’t know at this stage, what, if any, ‘R’ lengths have been allotted; presumably they will be allotted as it is a handicap. I will find out on Tuesday when the race is run.
Based on the calculated times issued on the six dogs, in my view the traps should be as follows with Droopys Rokocoko in scratch position in trap 6 with a best calculated time of 41.71.
Droopys Rokocoko 41.71 Trap 6
Portant Lady 41.92 Trap 5
Lundhill Flash 41.93 Trap 4
Riverview Toby 42.03 Trap 3
Time and Tide 42.10 Trap 2
Belpac Tomas 42.24 Trap 1
But the actual allocation of the traps is much different. So therefore I believe that there is a possibility that the traps allocated leaves us with room to exploit the differences in what, theoretically, they should be; to what they actually are!
I have listed them with comments about the treatment of the dogs. These are the actual trap placings, with the sponsor’s ( William Hill) odds :-
Trap 6 Droopys Rokocoko – correct trap; worthy scratch dog 11/4
Trap 5 Time And Tide – badly treated; a mountain to climb 6/1
Trap 4 Lundhill Flash – correct trap, even chance, no excuses 7/2
Trap 3 Portant Lady - well in; ought to be in trap 5;V/G value 11/2
Trap 2 Belpac Tomas - no favours; should be in trap 1; possible 7/1
Trap 1 Riverview Toby- really well in; how did it get this trap? 9/4
See what you think about this race and see if you can spot the winner; as my two are in the correct traps I’m quite pleased; but I might have little side bet as Potent Lady is very good value and Riverview Toby will never have a better chance of glory!
I hope this has been helpful…
Come racing!!
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Update: Two in the Final…
…Two dogs out of my 4 reached the Final of the Northumberland Plate.
Graham Calvert Jnr’s Droopys Rokocoko (12/1) powered to a strong finish to win its heat and my top rated Lundhill Flash (16/1) was equally impressive in doing the business.
I’ve lost some side bets + the cash on the bets for the Final for the other two picks but I’ve made up for it by 2 points side bets on Droopys at 5/1 and Lundhill at 4/1.
It’s all to play for in the final…
Come racing!!
…Two dogs out of my 4 reached the Final of the Northumberland Plate.
Graham Calvert Jnr’s Droopys Rokocoko (12/1) powered to a strong finish to win its heat and my top rated Lundhill Flash (16/1) was equally impressive in doing the business.
I’ve lost some side bets + the cash on the bets for the Final for the other two picks but I’ve made up for it by 2 points side bets on Droopys at 5/1 and Lundhill at 4/1.
It’s all to play for in the final…
Come racing!!
I’m having a go at the William Hill Northumberland Plate…
…This contest is held at Brough Park over 670 metres, and because these animals have run over a multitude of distances it will be a difficult greyhound contest to work out; also most have been running in handicaps which are not very good races to compile a speed reference from.
I’ve been through the list of the 18 dogs involved and I have ranked them in speed figures; as I have seen them. I have allocated my price to each dog from 5/1 to 100/1. But the bookies ranking is from 7/1 to 33/1. I find it difficult to believe they haven’t gone to at least 66/1 - but then they don’t really gamble; do they?
Anyway, my top 4 dogs, which I have priced, are from 5/1 to 10/1.
They are as follows:-
Lundhill Lass 60/98 speed; my price 5/1; bookies price 16/1 ew 1.2.3. Excellent value bet.(1 point ew)
Magna Mike 61/61 speed; my price 6/1; bookies price 10/1. Good value, win only. (2 points win).
Stitchill Bronze 61/62speed; my price 8/1; bookies price 20/1 ew 1.2.3. Excellent value (1 point ew).
Droopys Rokocoko 62/11 speed; my price 10/1 ew 1.2.3; bookies price 12/1 ew 1.2.3 Slight value (1 point ew).
I have put on some side bets on the 3 heats tonight. If they win they will pay for my bets on the Final. Here’s hoping for a good run!
Come racing!!
…This contest is held at Brough Park over 670 metres, and because these animals have run over a multitude of distances it will be a difficult greyhound contest to work out; also most have been running in handicaps which are not very good races to compile a speed reference from.
I’ve been through the list of the 18 dogs involved and I have ranked them in speed figures; as I have seen them. I have allocated my price to each dog from 5/1 to 100/1. But the bookies ranking is from 7/1 to 33/1. I find it difficult to believe they haven’t gone to at least 66/1 - but then they don’t really gamble; do they?
Anyway, my top 4 dogs, which I have priced, are from 5/1 to 10/1.
They are as follows:-
Lundhill Lass 60/98 speed; my price 5/1; bookies price 16/1 ew 1.2.3. Excellent value bet.(1 point ew)
Magna Mike 61/61 speed; my price 6/1; bookies price 10/1. Good value, win only. (2 points win).
Stitchill Bronze 61/62speed; my price 8/1; bookies price 20/1 ew 1.2.3. Excellent value (1 point ew).
Droopys Rokocoko 62/11 speed; my price 10/1 ew 1.2.3; bookies price 12/1 ew 1.2.3 Slight value (1 point ew).
I have put on some side bets on the 3 heats tonight. If they win they will pay for my bets on the Final. Here’s hoping for a good run!
Come racing!!
Saturday, September 09, 2006
Razldazl Billy wins the Derby in style…
…What a race! It lived up to expectations although the result wasn’t what I thought it would be with the favourite, Kieron Fallon’s dog Bar The Devil finishing last!
Take nothing away from Razldazl Billy this dog won in fantastic style over the 550yds in a stunning time of 29.49 sec. Which I have rated him as a 58/63 dog.
This dog was on the orginal list of Derby dogs I posted on my blog on 30th June; he was reasonably high on the list classified as a 59/71 dog; an extraordinary improvement to 58/63! Paddy Power bookmakers (http://www.paddypower.com/) had him at best price 16/1 then. Well done, if you spotted him at the time of writing, I didn’t think he would have increased his pace per metre by that much.
Two of my selections finished 2nd and 3rd. Antrim Classic 33/1 and Skywalker Magic 50/1. My other selection Barefoot Jenny ran disappointingly into 5th place.
I suppose it wasn’t too bad picking, so far in advance of the Derby and I do have the each way returns of: 8.25+12.5= 20.75 points.
The race gave me a great thrill and I was pleasantly surprised that Sky Sports put it on the box live.
My profit was negligble after deducting my losses although Barefoot Jenny helped me out when she won her heat at 12/1.
The main thing is I had a lot of enjoyment searching for that elusive thing, at a good price - a Greyhound Derby winner. Plus the fact that my methods seem to work.
Let's see what happens next and what winners we might get from the lists that have been compiled of vey good dogs that we can still have a bet on.
Come racing!!
…What a race! It lived up to expectations although the result wasn’t what I thought it would be with the favourite, Kieron Fallon’s dog Bar The Devil finishing last!
Take nothing away from Razldazl Billy this dog won in fantastic style over the 550yds in a stunning time of 29.49 sec. Which I have rated him as a 58/63 dog.
This dog was on the orginal list of Derby dogs I posted on my blog on 30th June; he was reasonably high on the list classified as a 59/71 dog; an extraordinary improvement to 58/63! Paddy Power bookmakers (http://www.paddypower.com/) had him at best price 16/1 then. Well done, if you spotted him at the time of writing, I didn’t think he would have increased his pace per metre by that much.
Two of my selections finished 2nd and 3rd. Antrim Classic 33/1 and Skywalker Magic 50/1. My other selection Barefoot Jenny ran disappointingly into 5th place.
I suppose it wasn’t too bad picking, so far in advance of the Derby and I do have the each way returns of: 8.25+12.5= 20.75 points.
The race gave me a great thrill and I was pleasantly surprised that Sky Sports put it on the box live.
My profit was negligble after deducting my losses although Barefoot Jenny helped me out when she won her heat at 12/1.
The main thing is I had a lot of enjoyment searching for that elusive thing, at a good price - a Greyhound Derby winner. Plus the fact that my methods seem to work.
Let's see what happens next and what winners we might get from the lists that have been compiled of vey good dogs that we can still have a bet on.
Come racing!!
Monday, September 04, 2006
My graph 'shouts out' that: Bar The Devil should win the Irish Greyhound derby...
..by a good margin!
Kieron Fallon's greyhound looks a good bet at 2/1 Coral. www.coral.co.uk
and the graph shows that it seems it is in a different league. Although a word of caution, because it is running from trap 1 which it has only won from once.
The graph also shows that Barefoot Jenny, trap 2, and Skywalker Magic, trap 6, are not out of it and I fancy Barefoot Jenny to be, perhaps, the first bitch to win the Derby. (I'm not sure of the stats on that). I hope so, because I have bet her ante-post at 50/1 ew 1.2.3.4. a place. This fast finishing bitch will take all the beating and she has a lot of crafty experience as she is a year older than the others; except Trey United.
If Jenny pulls it off she could be world famous because people love stories about a fast bitch!
Skywalker Magic, which I have also bet ante-post at 50/1 ew, is in an ideal wide trap to capatalise on any mistakes made by the front runners.
My third bet ante-post 33/1 ew Antrim Classic, trap 3, is my least fancied, but the graph shows it is not a forlorn hope, and if it runs into 4th I will collect!
Study the graph to see what you think about the others.
Visit www.dog-a-roo.blgspot.com
Good luck.
Come racing!!
..by a good margin!
Kieron Fallon's greyhound looks a good bet at 2/1 Coral. www.coral.co.uk
and the graph shows that it seems it is in a different league. Although a word of caution, because it is running from trap 1 which it has only won from once.
The graph also shows that Barefoot Jenny, trap 2, and Skywalker Magic, trap 6, are not out of it and I fancy Barefoot Jenny to be, perhaps, the first bitch to win the Derby. (I'm not sure of the stats on that). I hope so, because I have bet her ante-post at 50/1 ew 1.2.3.4. a place. This fast finishing bitch will take all the beating and she has a lot of crafty experience as she is a year older than the others; except Trey United.
If Jenny pulls it off she could be world famous because people love stories about a fast bitch!
Skywalker Magic, which I have also bet ante-post at 50/1 ew, is in an ideal wide trap to capatalise on any mistakes made by the front runners.
My third bet ante-post 33/1 ew Antrim Classic, trap 3, is my least fancied, but the graph shows it is not a forlorn hope, and if it runs into 4th I will collect!
Study the graph to see what you think about the others.
Visit www.dog-a-roo.blgspot.com
Good luck.
Come racing!!
Sunday, September 03, 2006
I’m in a fairly rosy position after the semi-final heats of the Irish Derby…
… with three of my ante-post bets in the final!! The favourite: He Said So, was a surprising elimination in that round!
My three remaining bets – from over a hundred dogs are:
Barefoot Jenny 50/1
Antrim Classic 33/1
Skywalker Magic 50/1
All each way at ¼ odds 1,2,3,4, places.
Barring withdrawals, or accidents, one of my dogs is certain to get at least 4th place.
To speculate on the possible minimum return of 1 point each way if:
Antrim Classic, 4th place or better, return = 8¼ points.
Barefoot Jenny = 12½
Skywalker Magic= 12½
If:
Two 50/1 get placed, 12½ +12 ½ = 25 points
All 3 get placed, 8¼ +12 ½ + 12 ½ = 33¼
If:
Either 50/1 wins, 50+12½ = 62½ points
33/1 wins, 33+ 8¼ = 41¼
If:
Either 50/1 wins and 50/1 placed, 50+ 12 1/2+ 12 1/2 = 75
Either 50/1 wins and 33/1 placed, 50+12 1/2+8¼ = 70 3/4
33/1 wins and 50/1placed, 33/1+ 8 1/4+12 ½ = 53 3/4
33/1 wins and two 50/1 placed, 33+ 8 1/4+12½+12½ = 66 1/4
50/1 wins and 50/1 and 33/1 placed, 50+12½+12 1/2+8 ¼ = 83 1/2 (The best scenario)
Of course I have take off the cost of betting dogs that eliminated but I will calculate that later to see if I end up in profit. Although I did bet I point at 12/1 on Barefoot Jenny to win her semi-final, which she did, so that will take care of some losses!
Let’s hope it is not the minimum return of 8¼ that I pick up. But that is racing…
I wonder what the outcome will be?
I wonder what the odds are on all 3 dogs ending up in first 2nd and 3rd? Could happen!
I hope to put the Derby Final graph on the next blog.
Come racing!!
… with three of my ante-post bets in the final!! The favourite: He Said So, was a surprising elimination in that round!
My three remaining bets – from over a hundred dogs are:
Barefoot Jenny 50/1
Antrim Classic 33/1
Skywalker Magic 50/1
All each way at ¼ odds 1,2,3,4, places.
Barring withdrawals, or accidents, one of my dogs is certain to get at least 4th place.
To speculate on the possible minimum return of 1 point each way if:
Antrim Classic, 4th place or better, return = 8¼ points.
Barefoot Jenny = 12½
Skywalker Magic= 12½
If:
Two 50/1 get placed, 12½ +12 ½ = 25 points
All 3 get placed, 8¼ +12 ½ + 12 ½ = 33¼
If:
Either 50/1 wins, 50+12½ = 62½ points
33/1 wins, 33+ 8¼ = 41¼
If:
Either 50/1 wins and 50/1 placed, 50+ 12 1/2+ 12 1/2 = 75
Either 50/1 wins and 33/1 placed, 50+12 1/2+8¼ = 70 3/4
33/1 wins and 50/1placed, 33/1+ 8 1/4+12 ½ = 53 3/4
33/1 wins and two 50/1 placed, 33+ 8 1/4+12½+12½ = 66 1/4
50/1 wins and 50/1 and 33/1 placed, 50+12½+12 1/2+8 ¼ = 83 1/2 (The best scenario)
Of course I have take off the cost of betting dogs that eliminated but I will calculate that later to see if I end up in profit. Although I did bet I point at 12/1 on Barefoot Jenny to win her semi-final, which she did, so that will take care of some losses!
Let’s hope it is not the minimum return of 8¼ that I pick up. But that is racing…
I wonder what the outcome will be?
I wonder what the odds are on all 3 dogs ending up in first 2nd and 3rd? Could happen!
I hope to put the Derby Final graph on the next blog.
Come racing!!
Saturday, September 02, 2006
My second blog tonight looks at the 2nd semi-final of the Irish Greyhound Derby...
You will see that 4 dogs stand out in this graph. Holborn Post in trap 2, Barefoot Jenny in trap 4, Ardkill Jamie in trap 1 and SkywalkerMagic in trap 5.
Holborn Post seems to have the edge; we will see later tonight...
The first semi-final is in an earlier blog .
Come racing!!
You will see that 4 dogs stand out in this graph. Holborn Post in trap 2, Barefoot Jenny in trap 4, Ardkill Jamie in trap 1 and SkywalkerMagic in trap 5.
Holborn Post seems to have the edge; we will see later tonight...
The first semi-final is in an earlier blog .
Come racing!!
I'm a bit late with this, but I still think you will find it interesting...
...It is my new vertical graph of tonight's 1st semi-final of the Irish Greyhound Derby. I made the graph vertical so that it fits inside a racecard for ease in transferring the time data.
If you study the graph you will see that in trap 1 He Said So and in trap 5 Bar the Devil are in a higher panel than the other 4 dogs. In racing slang you would say 'In another County'. On this evidence they should both qualify tonight...
The graph of the other semi-final is a more conventional one, and should be on my next blog.
Come racing!!
...It is my new vertical graph of tonight's 1st semi-final of the Irish Greyhound Derby. I made the graph vertical so that it fits inside a racecard for ease in transferring the time data.
If you study the graph you will see that in trap 1 He Said So and in trap 5 Bar the Devil are in a higher panel than the other 4 dogs. In racing slang you would say 'In another County'. On this evidence they should both qualify tonight...
The graph of the other semi-final is a more conventional one, and should be on my next blog.Come racing!!
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