Ante-post betting is a minefield; but fun…
… except when the luck of the draw contributes to your main hope being eliminated by your other 3 dogs!

As I said in my last blog: I had 4 dogs in the last quarter final heat in the Irish Greyhound Derby; 3 dogs got through to the semi-finals but Si Senor (at 10/1 for the final) did not qualify.

One of the three I have left, Antrim Classic, is drawn in the same semi-final heat as He Said So and Bar-The-Devil the two leading favourites and as only 3 can go through he will have to be on his mettle to qualify.

The other two Barefoot Jenny (I like that name of this bitch) and Skywalker Magic are drawn against fast finishing dog Holborn Post in the other semi-final so one of them might get into the final. I think it will be difficult for me to come out with a profit; but you never know in dog racing…

I like to take an objective ‘value betting’ view,- putting aside the ones I have bet- of dogs that might be in the final based on their recent times (converted to my ratings).

‘Value betting’ means evaluating the dogs; setting them down in a list from 1 to 6 based on how you see the race and not how the bookies see it.

So my list of who might be in the final with a tissue of around 120% would be:

Bookies current prices to win the Final:
Holborn Post (top rating 59/15) 1/1 8/1
He Said So (59/17- capable of better) 7/4 7/4
Martinstown Lass (59/51 fast finishing bitch) 9/2 25/1
Ardkill Jamie (59/51) 5/1 10/1
Trey United (59/75) 20/1 33/1
Bar The Devil (59/85) 25/1 5/2

Therefore if my list is correct for the Final (it may be so wrong!) the value bets at this stage would be:

Holborn Post – excellent value ( 8/1 for an even money shot).

Martinstown Lass 3rd top rated here - EXCELLENT VALUE (25/1 for a 9/2 shot).

Ardkill Jamie- good value 10/1 for a 5/1 dog.

Trey United – value 33/1 for a 20/1 dog.


See, it’s fun doing that sort of thing which may, or may not come off; but what would you take a chance on from that list? I would say Martinstown Lass at 25/1 quarter odds 1.2.3. a place with http://www.ladbrokes.com/ would represent a sporting bet. I don’t know if a bitch has ever won the Irish Derby; but who knows there is always a first time. Mind you if a bitch is going to win I hope it is Barefoot Jenny which I’ve backed at 50/1.

If you are going for big prices you will have to get on before Saturday; semi-final day.

Come racing!!