Ante-post betting is a minefield; but fun…
… except when the luck of the draw contributes to your main hope being eliminated by your other 3 dogs!

As I said in my last blog: I had 4 dogs in the last quarter final heat in the Irish Greyhound Derby; 3 dogs got through to the semi-finals but Si Senor (at 10/1 for the final) did not qualify.

One of the three I have left, Antrim Classic, is drawn in the same semi-final heat as He Said So and Bar-The-Devil the two leading favourites and as only 3 can go through he will have to be on his mettle to qualify.

The other two Barefoot Jenny (I like that name of this bitch) and Skywalker Magic are drawn against fast finishing dog Holborn Post in the other semi-final so one of them might get into the final. I think it will be difficult for me to come out with a profit; but you never know in dog racing…

I like to take an objective ‘value betting’ view,- putting aside the ones I have bet- of dogs that might be in the final based on their recent times (converted to my ratings).

‘Value betting’ means evaluating the dogs; setting them down in a list from 1 to 6 based on how you see the race and not how the bookies see it.

So my list of who might be in the final with a tissue of around 120% would be:

Bookies current prices to win the Final:
Holborn Post (top rating 59/15) 1/1 8/1
He Said So (59/17- capable of better) 7/4 7/4
Martinstown Lass (59/51 fast finishing bitch) 9/2 25/1
Ardkill Jamie (59/51) 5/1 10/1
Trey United (59/75) 20/1 33/1
Bar The Devil (59/85) 25/1 5/2

Therefore if my list is correct for the Final (it may be so wrong!) the value bets at this stage would be:

Holborn Post – excellent value ( 8/1 for an even money shot).

Martinstown Lass 3rd top rated here - EXCELLENT VALUE (25/1 for a 9/2 shot).

Ardkill Jamie- good value 10/1 for a 5/1 dog.

Trey United – value 33/1 for a 20/1 dog.


See, it’s fun doing that sort of thing which may, or may not come off; but what would you take a chance on from that list? I would say Martinstown Lass at 25/1 quarter odds 1.2.3. a place with http://www.ladbrokes.com/ would represent a sporting bet. I don’t know if a bitch has ever won the Irish Derby; but who knows there is always a first time. Mind you if a bitch is going to win I hope it is Barefoot Jenny which I’ve backed at 50/1.

If you are going for big prices you will have to get on before Saturday; semi-final day.

Come racing!!

The Irish Greyhound Derby is still in progress…

… entering the quarter final stages at Shelbourne Park with the heats on Saturday evening.

I’ve added to my list of small stakes bets hoping for some each way bets to reach the final; but guess what? In the last heat, Race 11 no fewer than 4 of my selections have ended up opposing each other! And as only 3 can get through one of my bets will fall by the wayside.

Si Senor 10/1 (my main hope; now) has the best time but Tullow Rumble (not my selection) has the next best time. So I’ll be lucky if I get two through to the semi-final! Such is the luck of the draw, that lands my selections together…

The new ones I have added (they are in the above heat) because of pretty good times and good prices are:

Barefoot Jenny 50/1
Skywalker Magic 50/1

The other one in that heat is: Antrim Classic 33/1which I bet a while ago

We’ll see how it goes…

Come racing!!

Crunch day for big prices…
at Shelbourne Park tonight in the Irish Greyhound Derby if we are to get big prices before the quarter and semi–final stage.

I’ve made up my mind to support 4 more dogs from my Significant Improvers short list at good prices besides Catunda Francie (which I have bet at 100/1). The four are:

Si Senor 10/1
Lefanta April (bitch) 66/1
Ballyhoe Marble 33/1
Antrim Classic 33/1 (I missed the 50/1)

I expect the two favourite s to get through: He Said So ( last year’s winner) and Bar the Devil.

They should both be hard to beat but are not worth betting at short prices at this stage. When it comes to dog racing you can always live in
hope…

Come racing!!

Droopys Electric…shock exit !!

My ante post bet on Droopys at 20/1 didn’t get past the first round proper with a shock defeat whilst 10/1 favourite to win the competition. The connections must have been disappointed; but there is always other good races to be won.

I have been following the heats closely and I have a few dogs that could be classed at this stage as Significant Improvers. Take note:
12/1 Si Senor 59/07
66/1 Lefanta April 59/23
6/1 Bar The Devil 59/23(Kieron Fallon’s Dog)
40/1 Barlyhoe Marble 59/27
50/1 Antrim Classic 59/51

And last, but not least, last years winner : He Said So, has done a category 59/45 but we know from last years performance that he is capable of 58/73. It is no wonder he is 4/1 favourite now to win the Derby again.

There could be some value in taking a chance with some of the bigger prices…I might do that.

I’ve bet Catunda Francie at 100/1; but with a rating of 60/56 it will have to improve a great deal to win this – but you never know with dog racing; anything can happen!

Come racing!!

Greyhound Puppy Derby…Temple Lad 2nd…

Well, my gamble on Temple Lad was foiled by Droopys Tops winning by ½ a length, but it was a good try and I still came out winning on the each way bet which paid 11/1. It was a lot of fun working it out and I am pleased that my strategy of tracking ‘Significant Improvers’ moving up the category, bore some fruit. It will be a dog to keep in your sights as it is about 50/1 for next year’s Greyhound Derby; but then so is Amarrilo Slim too!

Things are beginning to happen in the Irish Greyhound Derby which has about 130 entries with the draw recently taking place. The long list I prepared in a previous blog will be out of date now because of a few absentees due to retirement or injury. Droopys Electric (I bet it at 20/1) is now favourite at 10/1 after the retirement of Tyrur Ted.

My original shortlist has lost some dogs with the withdrawal of : Goldstar Premier; Tyrur Ted; Group Rooster ( Kieren Fallon’s dog) and Winetavern Oscar.

I have seen the final list; complete with the draw. The First round proper takes place this week. At this point I will start to bring my analysis up to date; and see what is worth betting ante post. Meanwhile I have bet Catunda Francie at 100/1 ew. It is the fastest dog on my list but its rating has been gained over 400 yards: so I am taking a chance with it, but I think it is worthy of betting with a small stake at that price with Coral.

I had another winning bet on Quick Shift and I was wondering if trainer P. Ward would leave it in the Derby; but he didn’t!

Come racing!!