Monday, April 03, 2006

Now let's talk about handicap races, where the traps are set at intervals...

Handicap races, whilst fun to try to figure out, would not lend themselves to the same graph as above if only a few of the distances travelled were the same; if the distances are all the same then a graph would be quite illuminating. The classier dogs in traps 5 and 6 would have most of their peaks higher up in the graph (almost in another time zone). The other four graphs would usually occupy the lower sections in the graphs (lesser times).

From my observations it seems that the traps are allocated by the best time*- but not always; maybe class – with the best dog in trap 6; next best time* in trap 5 and so on down to trap 1. The spacing of the traps is important also with each trap allocated an ‘R’ figure depicting the metres start each dog has on trap 6 in scratch position.
‘R’ stands for received; so R 7, for example, means that the dog in the trap allocated this term has a 7 metre start on trap 6.

Your job is to try to determine what effect, if any, the ‘start’ the five dogs get on the ‘scratch’ runner in trap 6 will affect the outcome of the race. The hard-core punters and the trainers and the racing managers probably know of a ‘weighting’ formulae that can be used to figure out what traps might have an ‘edge’ on the 6 dog but when are these people going to reveal their secrets to us, the punters, with a decent expertly written book on the subjects raised in this article?..And that’s as much the reason I am writing this ‘blog’, as is my intention to make punters aware that so often in races they are betting blind!
Handicap races are a real intellectual challenge - a conundrum in essence; but you can get some good prices in these races.

Come racing!!

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