Saturday, January 21, 2006

For this next bit you need a calculator...

Add together the best times* of all six dogs and divide by 6 to obtain the average time. Plot the average time and draw a broken line (-----) across all six dog graphs.

This is a good visual check about the assumption that: ‘the winning time of the race will, at least, be the average time’. That is not always the case but it is an advantage to have some sort of graphical guide for selection purposes.

By viewing the finished graph, you would expect that: ‘any dog selected would have the ability, or could improve, to reach the average time’. The top dogs would, of course, have that ability.

If you concluded that a dog did not have the ability because it was very old, or too young, for example, then you would not select it; thus improving the odds of selecting the winner.

That’s all for now…

Come racing!!

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Take note of the number of…

… Qaw’s (‘quickly aways’) each dog has in its form lines. Jot the number down on the empty space on each tiny graph; also look out for SAw’s (‘slowly aways’), that’s useful as well.

This is good information on the graphs and augments the previous paragraph on split times by not only having identified the dog that can break most quickly from the trap but also the dog who has the most Qaw’s in its form lines in the last six runs; which might not be the same dog. The dog with the fastest break may only have done it the once!

The bends:-

A dog’s position in 1st and 2nd place going around the bends is also another piece of data that is useful to note, although some dogs run very well in other positions going round bends and then come with a flourish!

The position on the bends can be found on the race cards under the dog’s name after the split time column. There will be numbers like this: 1221; or this: 5534; or this:
1111 (good numbers). Dogs that can fly around the bends are usually worth betting.

Write ‘B’ for bends on the bottom of each dog graph and put a comment or a tick e.g. Ex (excellent ) or X ( bad ; or no good!).

Next part …coming soon…

Come racing!!

Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Jot down on a spare space on the graph...

the class of the six dog’s races they have been campaigned in e.g. A1 class, A2 class, Trials, Open Race class etc. so that you can compare them with the race in hand. Open Races, A1, A2 are all the best class races; A9 and A8 are the weaker races. It can be useful to take note of a dog going down or up in class.

You might ask: why put that on the graph when it is on the race card?
Answer: It is useful to get it all together and it draws it to your attention as a check that you have examined every angle.

The old hands at the dog racing game are always concerned about how fast a dog can get out of the trap.

It can certainly make a difference so it makes sense to include it on the graph. There are two terms that I know of that are used to record this. One is the ‘split time’ and the other term it is known as is the ‘sectional time’ which I think better describes it. The split time is the time it takes a dog to run from the trap to the winning post (or first bend in some races) on its first circuit of the track.

This time can be found under the term S Tm (Split Time) in the race card. It is useful information so it should be entered on the graph near the trap number.

There will be six split times for each of the dogs so pick out the fastest for each dog and then determine which dog can break the quickest; 2nd quickest, 3rd quickest.

Now allocate 1st best split time the Roman Numeral 1; the second quickest Roman Numeral (2) 11 and 3rd quickest Roman Numeral (3) 111.

Instant recognition!

Looking across the graph you can quickly weigh up the split time symbols of the Roman Numerals with the best time* symbols of the circle; the square and the diamond. If any of them coincide; for instance the circle (best time*) with the Roman Numeral 1 (best split time) this means that the dog with the best time in the race is also the fastest getting out of the trap. This could give you an edge in betting on the race.

That’s all for now …

Come racing!!

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

We now have the trend...

or pattern, of each dog’s recent runs. This same operation as described above is easily done in Excel spread sheets with a computer; but who takes a laptop racing?

This is not as daft as it sounds, because I know that in the USA there are software programs for dog handicap races and punters do take a laptop there sometimes.

The graph is meant to be re-usable and of a handy size to take with you when you go dog racing on track or at the bookies and I hope you will find it useful. But...

It has to be more than a graph with peaks and troughs if we are to put a dog race ‘under the microscope’

So starting at the top of the six tiny graphs - using the blank space on the grid - enter under each trap number the relevant dog’s best time*. Just jot it down in numbers like this: e.g. 25.85.

Then plot the dog’s best time* on the graph and draw a tiny - very tiny- straight bar and write BT (best time) above it. Do this with all the dogs so that you can look across all six graphs and can compare the best times and see how far each dog is off its own best time.

Under the trap numbers of the three best times out of all six dogs, draw a circle О for 1st best time, a square 2nd best time and a diamond for 3rd best time. (Instant recognition!)

Next; near to each trap jot down the dog’s age (it’s on the race card near the dog’s name). You want to know if it is a crafty old dog or a young upstart!

Write on the graph ‘youngster’ or ‘really old’- or any other comment that is relevent. It helps you to make up your mind about which dog to bet.

More on the next ‘blog’…

Come racing!!

Friday, January 13, 2006

Each dog’s time of its last 6 races..

should be taken off the race card and entered on the laminated plastic covered graph.

Here is an example of, say, dog No1 time over several months :-

6th Jan 06--- 26.40
28th Dec 05---25.85
15th Dec 05---26.61
1st Dec 05 ----26.18
14thNov 05 --27.02
3rd Nov 05 ---27.09 <- Start here!

Note the time for dog No 1 which is listed at the bottom of the column of calculated times. (It is called the calculated time because the actual time has been adjusted to include the condition of the racing surface – the ‘going’ in essence).

You must work upwards in date line order.

START to plot the dots by locating the time that you have noted on the TIME line and place a dot on first vertical line; which is Race 1. Add more ‘time’ dots for Race 2; Race 3 Race 4; Race 5; and Race 6. Join up the dots to make the peaks and troughs of greyhound No1’s performance. This will complete one tiny graph.

Carry out the same procedure for the greyhound No 2; No3; No 4; No 5 and No 6. to make five more tiny graphs.

This dog graph can only be used for a race where all the previous races have been over the same distance. If any race has been over a different distance to the race you are plotting the race in question should be left off the graph!

Please note you can print off the full size graph (18 x18 centimetres) if you edit with Microsoft Word for Windows and Microsoft Photo Editor.

More on the next blog...

Come racing!!

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

To start making a graph…

Choose a race and study the times on the race card to determine the parameters (or range) of the times of the six dogs. Over 36 races (6 dogs x 6 races = 36) the times might stretch from, for example, 25.96sec through to 26.00sec and through to 27.35secs.

Note: For the next step you must use only a black felt tip pen as anything else will ruin the laminated plastic.

When you have decided on the three INTEGERS (whole numbers) say 25, 26, 27 you require to cover the range of times of the 36 races, write, the least value, number 25 between the .90 and the .10 on the top red line of the graph and then moving downwards write the INTEGER 26 on the next red line between the .90 and .10 and so on downwards to the bottom red line where we insert the largest INTEGER 27 between the .90 and .10 which gives us a graph where we can plot the peaks and troughs of each dog’s last six races.

When the graph is complete it can be wiped clean and used for another race.

Note: A good pen to use is a ‘dry wipe’ pen; sometimes called a ‘white board’ marker pen.

Come racing!!
You should have the graph in the last blog…

First let me tell you about how it is constructed…

On the graph, which is really 6 tiny graphs, side by side - one for each of the six dogs in the race - you will see TIME in seconds on the vertical axis plotted against the last 6 RACES each dog has run. The RACES: 1 2 3 4 5 6 are on the horizontal axis of each tiny graph.

The fastest times are at the top of the graph and the slowest times at the bottom of the graph. The reason for doing that (as opposed to a normal graph, for example, temperature rising from 0 to100 degrees) is that I needed to have the dog’s fastest time performances as peaks and its slowest performances as troughs so that good form and bad form is instantly recognised.

The TIME axis is numbered: .10 .20 .30 .40 .50 .60 .70 .80 and .90 going downward. I have deliberately left out the INTEGER (the whole number). I have done this on purpose so that the graph can be used again and again for races of different distances. The numbers .10 to .90 are the number of ‘spots’ (or hundredths of a second) between the whole numbers.

To be continued on the next post…

Come racing!!
Posted by Picasa
A simple graph.

I’ve found the best way to really analyze a race is to make a simple graph and include on it all the main properties that it is useful to know about a race (excluding things like breeding and ‘going’ and wide - runners and railers etc. Those things, important as they are, are for you to decide about separate to this.)

I have supplied a graph which I have included with this text. Print it off and cut it out and glue it on to thin cardboard and then laminate it. I will explain in a future ‘blog’ that I issue, how to use it.

The graph, which is 18cms x18cms full size, will appear in the next post.

Come racing!!

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

The Best of the Best

It is useful if you can have a quick guide to compare a dog’s performance. A fairly useful process is to examine all six of the dog’s best times and then determine which time is the ‘best of the best’ times.

When this is ascertained jot it down on a piece of paper and then use this time by subtracting it, in turn, from the time of the last run of each dog and write the answer (the number of ‘spots’- or decimal places) to each sum against each dog’s name. This will give you a series of six numbers going down the list of dog’s names which will indicate which dog’s last run is nearest to the best of the best times.

Of course if the dog with the best of all the times gained it on its last run the answer will be a zero!

It is still a useful comparison to the other five dog’s last run. The old hands can do this as second nature, but as an amateur I have to put the ‘spots’ down in writing.

Don’t assume that the lowest number of ‘spots’ is the winner - you have to assess other factors on the card before coming to a decision on which dog to bet.

An alternative to the above method – and one that got me winners – is to do a different calculation, which is easier than the above, and that is to subtract each dog’s own best time from the time of its last run to see how many spots it is off making its own best time again. However, if its last run was its best time then the answer is zero!

But it is still good to compare it with other dogs in the race. It is all a matter of judgement. Experiment to see what works best for you. Do the math!

Do these methods get me winners? As I have said: I did very well with the second method of assessment, so the answer is, yes and no. You need to consider the other factors and you can do all the above and the dog you have picked can be bowled over on a bend! That’s dog racing!

Come racing!!

Monday, January 09, 2006

At the races.

Let’s start with a race card at my nearest track which is Peterborough; as that is the card I know best. Now in the early races which are usually low grade races A10 or A9 I usually use the Racing Post selections or just pick numbers for low stakes; this gives me time to have a drink and go through the rest of the card.

The ‘best times’ of the dogs are listed down the right-hand side with an asterisk indicating the best time. First of all I jot the best time of each dog* in the race in the margin.

Now, later, when I get to the race in question I want to know what the three best times of the six dogs are; instantly! Mainly because there is so little time between races and because there is so much going on with different distractions.

I want to know which trap number dog has the best time* of the six; 2nd best time* of the six; and 3rd best time*. Because I know that one of those three times invariably comes in the forecast and the trio and that gives me a slight edge in the selection process.

I said that I want to know instantly.
As soon as I turn the page!

I instantly know the times because I mark them using hieroglyphs.

Just like the ancient Egyptians I use heiroglyphics to show the 1st 2nd and 3rd best times.

In order to do that I use the same markings that show main traffic routes : the circle, the square and the diamond. At the trap number of the dog with the best of the best times I draw a circle to denote 1st best time. The next best time gets a square ; and the 3rd best time is denoted by a diamond.

○ = 1st best time
□ = 2nd best time
◊ = 3rd best time

Use your own symbols if you wish. You now have instant recognition!

Thursday, January 05, 2006

I promised I would publish my article on dog racing ...

It is over six thousand words and may be longer by the time I have finished because I may want to add to it, as I go along, or perhaps I will comment on what I have written after each episode. We'll see...

Dog Racing: Unravelling The Mystique © G. Crawley 2006

A beginner’s guide

I see it every day: punters picking dogs in a bookmaker’s shop from a large racing sheet, quickly assessing the form and through intuition, or the prices on offer, backing dogs to win or be placed in forecast doubles etc. Some of them – the old hands especially are quite good at it; or so some of them tell me; but they know, at a glance, how to assess the ‘spots’ (the hundredths of a second in a greyhound’s time) that separate each dogs’ time - and hence, performance on the track. But what about the amateurs like me, what do we rely on? Mostly a glance through the form; counting the number of 1sts; and hope!

Usually it’s from a small corner of the shop with a dimly lit board that has one or two people trying to read a race at the same time. What have they assessed and what are they putting their money on? Maybe a tipster’s selection, or a certain trainer or perhaps a Racing Post rating of 100; or maybe a price?

Well, have you ever looked closely at some tipster’s selections for a race meeting on the dogs? Have you ever checked them out? I have; and I’ve found that some tipsters can go through a meeting without one selection being correct. The punter following such tipsters would be better off with a dice to make selections. Of course there are some racing journalist/ tipsters that I have enormous respect for, and you wonder how they do it!

What sort of aids do they have? A computer perhaps, and if so: what data is fed in? Maybe they rely on a lot of ‘local’ dog track information and knowledge; which I have great respect for.

Going to my local dog track I see a many people studying the race card and coming up with what might be the solution to the outcome of a race. Many, many people are really knowledgeable about dog racing at the track and really know their stuff. However, I imagine that they follow the same pattern week after week in their search for winners. With only 6 dogs in a race you would think it was easy – wouldn’t you? It’s not. It is anything but; it’s the most tantalising and mercurial, frustrating and demoralising, form of betting imaginable; and one of the most exhilarating when you get it right! And don’t you feel small when one of your family, usually a female, gets it right and you ask how she did it and she says, ‘I took all the girls’ names’. In disgust you growl -through clenched teeth – that, the damned dog doesn’t even know its name!

So where does the young hopeful person start when they get the bug? Going dog racing that is… The canny old punters with local and inside knowledge aren’t likely to be forthcoming in helping them get to know the racing game. Even deciphering the race card (though it tries to be helpful) is going to take time. How can we unravel the mystique that surrounds the dog racing fraternity? How can we assess what the trainers know that is not immediately known to us – or ever likely to be. There may be books around that are helpful, but has anyone written about how to assess a dog race? I never seem to come across anything that is really useful about the mechanics of dog racing; therefore that is the reason I have carried out my own experiments in assessing a race and why I am passing the result of my work to you; and hope it will be informative and useful. What I am about to explain is not a panacea to cure all the problems of winner finding; because I don’t know that anyone can devise a system for a sport where the competitors are so erratic. What I hope to do is to help, by sifting all the facts, so that you will make a more informed choice.

Come racing!!

Sunday, January 01, 2006

Happy New Year Everybody - From George

One of the problems of writing something that is new in dog racing - from the point of view of an amateur; which I am - is that there is a knowledge base of dog racing 'out there' that I'm not aware of...

In other words: 'I don't know, what I don't know!' If that makes sense. So for that reason if there are any experts who can explode my theories please write in to tell me, because that is what I'm after, I want to learn too. Further to that, if you have a dog racing method that works for you already please continue with it; and good luck to you.

I will have to put what I want, to you, in stages, because it comprises 6,400 words. Over the next few weeks I hope to find the time to get it out to you. It would be advisable to print it of so that you can keep it all together.

These are the topics , I will cover:

- At the races
- The Best of the Best (best times method)
- A simple graph
- Greyhound times.
- Random numbers
- The future of dog racing.

-and anything else that comes to mind... That's all for now.

Come racing!!