dog-a-roo successes…
…and failures 2006.

I started the year with my ‘tutorial’ for newcomers to dog racing which is entitled, Dog Racing: Unravelling the Mystique which I hope some people might have found useful. I included a download of my ‘plot-the dogs’ graph which, if you downloaded it, you could have experimented with.

I consider it a success to have published that work on the internet for use by ordinary punters–and I am pleased to say that is different to what others have written on the subject of greyhound racing; and that gives me a glow!!

In May I started to look for dogs that could be bet at good ante-post prices at 1/4 odds a place 1.2.3.4. or in some cases 3 places.

Without too much detail (some of it is painful!) this is my update:

I started with Amaarillo Slim in the Greyhound Derby which I bet at ew odds of 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 twice and 8/1. Amarillo Slim was beaten into 3rd place by Westmead Hawk . So, I collected ew money on those bets. But I also had an article on those bets posted on the Inside-Edge magazine and the Total Gambler magazine. I received £25 for the article.

In June I allocated my own ratings and priced up the whole of the Irish Greyhound Derby in anticipation of placing some early bets at good prices.

I took a fancy to Droopys Electric early on and tried to get the price of 20/1 from an irate and unhelpful counter assistant in a local betting shop who insisted that I couldn’t get a bet on, this early in the year.

I told her PaddyPower bookmakers had prices available and that she should ring up her area office and enquire on my behalf. She didn’t want to do it and as she walked towards the phone she said, over her shoulder, ‘They won’t have prices – I’m telling you!’

She was on the phone for some minutes.

Put the phone back on its cradle and strode over to where I was leaning on the counter, with my two elbows for support. I could see she was raging as I looked at her expectantly; and I said a silly thing that caused her to flip… I looked into her eyes and said, in a quiet voice: ’And the Banker says…?’

You should have seen her face when she said through gritted teeth, ‘Never mind what the Banker says…’ (She knew I was taking a rise out of her because of her attitude).

‘Droopys Electric is 20/1!… and people who bet dogs and horses are only fools,’ she finished tritely.

By this time I had a big smile on my face while I completed the transaction but I wondered why people take jobs that they obviously don’t like. In the event Droopys Electric didn’t win the Irish Derby … Razldazl Billy did.

That was a sort of speculative bet I put on before I had really looked at the Derby in some depth.

My bets that I did collect some money on in the Irish Derby were: Antrim Classic 33/1 2nd and Skywalker Magic 3rd at 50/1.

In July I then lost my ante-post bet on Door Latch which dropped out tamely in the Peterborough Veteran’s Derby, but my bet on Temple Lad in the Greyhound Puppy Derby paid off with a 2nd place at 50/1.

Next on the agenda in August I had Lundhill Flash 3rd at 16/1 in the Northumberland Plate.

I used my blog at this point to discuss betting in a handicap such as this race and I tried to explain as best I could the ‘R’ factor which indicated how many lengths the best, or ‘scratch’ dog, gave to other runners. I hope that particular blog was useful to some people.

Then onto September with the Sheffield Steel Cup in my sights.

I took the opportunity to talk about using the Dutching Calculator which allows you to bet on two or more selections to get the same return no matter which one wins.

I tried it out on this race with two selections and a 7 point bet on Droopys Sami and Farloe Hobbs. I lost out to Womble which won, priced at 25/1 !!

The Wimbledon Grand National in October was a race where I had 3 dogs through to the final: Custom Paul 12/1, Druids Scully 20/1 and Snazzy Time 50/1 and ended up with only one getting 2nd place. (But I can’t remember which one).

I had a 2 point deficit in early October in the Irish Puppy Derby even though I had two in the final: Winetavern Henry 14/1 and Rusheen Hondo. Oran Majestic won it and it is a dog we should look out for next year.

October 21st my selection in the Irish Laurels : Disco Stu was 3rd at 25/1, but I lost on other bets.

The end of October/early November I bet Fabulous Sophie which was outclassed in the Wimbledon Greyhound St Leger.
The Leger was won in good style by Ninja Blue. I lost 11 points on that race.

In November I bet Broadacres Bob at 33/1 in the Nottingham Eclipse . It ran 2nd to Clash Harmonica, who won by 4 lengths.

The last big race of the year that I tackled was the Romford Essex Vase. I bet Ninja Blue as my main hope to beat Eye Onthe Veto but it finished 5th costing me my biggest loss of 15 1/2 points

There you have it. I’m not sure if I made a profit on the year or not but if I didn’t, it did not cost me a lot; and I had a great deal of interest in doing it.

I have given you the main details. I bet in quarter-finals and semi–finals and sometimes with wins in those races I was really onto a ‘bet to nothing’ which is a good position to get into. And I ran with several selections based on what I considered ‘value bets’ as it is really difficult to pick just one dog to win out of 100 dogs.

Let’s see how I get on next year. If you follow this blog perhaps you would like to make a comment; I’d really appreciate that.

You can post a comment on the bottom right hand corner of this blog or email me on : crawley1000@msn.com

Happy New Year everyone.

Come racing!!

Ninja Blue ran 'like a drain'...
...finishing 5th in the Essex Vase.

The bookies had this race made up to a tee with the favourite Eye Onthe Veto winning in splendid style, with Westmead Aoifa in 2nd place and Bubbly Casino in the 3rd spot.

The writing was on the wall for Ninja Blue, who was suffering the effect of recent hard races, drifting from 10/1 to 12/1. So I got this one so wrong!

Ah! well there's always more races to have a go at next year!

My total losses on this race was: 15 1/2 points, as I did an 'allways trio' with Eye Onthe Veto, Westmead Aoifa and Ninja Blue for 3 points; which of course Ninja Blue spoiled.

My graph in the last blog pointed to the first two home. (I should have done a straight forecast - easy in hindsight isn't it? That's what I get for being too greedy!)

(Doesn't it get you when dog owner's run the words together with names such as: Eye Onthe Veto? - What the hell for ? And what the heck does it mean?)

I'll be doing an update of my 'dog-racing year' in my next blog ...

In the meantime...

Come racing!!

'Eye' is the fastest starter in the Essex Vase but...
...can it win this contest?

I think the bookies have got it right with the short prices of Eye Onthe Veto and Westmead Aoifa; it looks like a toss-up between the two, if you study the graph. Eye Onthe Veto I think can just shade it.

It's a dog I highlighted in my blog on the Nottingham Eclipse that made a really good run, that I thought might have been a fluke. It seems it wasn't !
(I think it finished last in that race though - but there has been some improvement since then).

There didn't seem much point in looking for a value bet in this race but Ninja Blue, given its fine reputation, looks overpriced at 10/1 Coral's price.

As my only representative I hope it does win but I will not be adding it to my present bets as it looks up against it this time!

My heart was ruling my head when I bet Side Leg at 66/1,which didn't survive the last round; but you have to take a chance now and again. Side Leg should win some good races in the future...

Come racing!!
 

The Romford Essex Vase moves to the semi-final stage...

...with three good races featuring Ninja Blue in the 1st semi, Westmaid Aoifa in the 2nd semi and Eye Onthe Veto with a good chance in the third semi.

I made a list of the 18 runners based on earlier races and the times in the first heats then and allotted my prices depending where the dogs ranked on my list. Each dog was given a number from 1 to 18.

I used the list to sort out the best value in order to increase my portfolio which only had Ninja Blue remaining (see last blog).

From the list I then selected one more dog to run with in the Final.

It was Side Leg at 66/1 with Betfred 1/4 odds a place 1,2.3; which I bet 1 point ew.

I was only looking for a dog that could, perhaps, make it through to the Final and then get placed (16 1/2 points 1,2,3) .

I then set out the 3 semi-finals, with six dogs in each, and then using the NUMBERS on the master list as a guide - depending on where they came on the list- used them to allocate prices in the 3 semis.

In each semi the 3 lowest numbers were called A. B, C .

Like this:-

18 Blonde Ozzy
13 Shelbourne Ryan
9 Westfield Max (B) 2/1 my price; 7/1 Coral's odds.
10 Blissful Classic (C) 3/1; Coral 7/4; no value.
1 Ninja Blue (A) 1/1; Coral 13/8; slight value.

The other 2 semis were done in the same way and these are the value bets from those races : Side Leg my price 2/1; Coral 14/1.
In the last semi: Bubbly Tojo my price 1/1; Coral 5/2; slight value.

I've bet Side Leg 1 point ew at 14/1 in the 2nd semi; and 2 points win Ninja Blue at 13/8 in the 1st semi.

Did my heart rule my head ? We'll see, after tonight!

Come racing !!

The Romford Essex Vase over 575 metres...
.
..is a quite famous greyhound race first run in 1939.

I thought I would have a go at it even though it has 36 dogs in six heats.

I've done a fair amount of work on it analysing all the dogs but I didn't have time to put my selections on my blog.

This is what I came up with:

Ninja Blue at my price of 5/1 to win the final; 2 points win at Coral's price of 8/1 (good value).

Rio Gigalo at Coral's odds of 66/1; 1 point ew 1,2,3,4. My price : 8/1.

The first heats have been run and my bets in the heats were:

1 point win Rio Gigalo which lost.( It had won 3 Open races on the trot!)
1 point win Bubbly Tojo at 6/4; won.
1 point win Side Leg; 2nd. This was 100/1 at the start. (Though I didn't bet it to win the Final - it might be worth adding to the list but its time was not outstanding)

I was betting trying to weigh up the opposition in each of three heats.

Ninja Blue was 2nd in its heat to Westmead Aoifa; the winning time being 35.83 sec. Westmead Aoifa will take a bit of beating in this contest...

So my book is in deficit already to 2 1/2 points.

I've lost out with Rio Gigalo failing to qualify but I still have Ninja Blue to fly the flag!

And there will be more opportunity to add to my portfolio after I have
assessed the time in the first heats. They are run on Wednesday so I'll try to sort out some more bets before that! Have faith!

Come racing!!

Hail! Clash Harmonica...
...winning the Nottingham Eclipse in a stunning time of 29.50 by 4 1/4 lengths from Broadacres Rob; Zigzag Dutchy ran third.

I was disappointed that Broadacres Rob - the dog I had bet at 33/1- was beaten but at least I managed to pick up the each way money.

I would have made a profit of 3 1/4 points except that I put 2 points saver on Eye Ofthe Veto at 4/1. It was last.

So my final tally was 1 1/4 points profit. Not much; but at least it was free betting; it was Broadacres Rob that saved me by winning its heat in the semi-final and picking me up 7.25 points in the final.

I'll be on the lookout for something more soon...in the meantime...

Come racing!!

Keep an 'Eye on the Veto'...

...in trap 6 in the Nottingham Eclipse. It's made significant improvement in its last run, doing a cracking time of 29.69 over the 500m.

Looking at the graph Zigzag Dutchy has a great chance with such consistent figures and Carleones Rammi shows steady improvement
to clock 30.08.

I'm hoping, as usual, that the dog I have got in the race Broadacres Rob wins (33/1) but his figures are on a par with Clash Harmonica which don't look good enough. They are both not out of it, though, and David Pruhs has won this race twice before!

Mackrel Sky looks too far down in the graph to pose a threat. (But I have said similar before and been so wrong!)

If you haven't got a bet on this race yet it could be between Zigzag Dutchy at Corals price of 7/4 or take a chance on Eye Onthe Veto at Betfred's odds of 4/1 and hope that the last run it made wasn't a fluke!

Come racing!!
 

The Betfred Eclipse is run at Nottingham…

…on the 20th November, which gives us time to sort out a few bets.

Let’s start by saying that it is aiming for the semi-final stage on Monday 13th Nov, but we can still get a bet on the outcome of the final. Although the place bets are 1/4 odds for only 3 places; which isn’t so good.

There are 18 runners in the three semi-finals. I have selected one dog from each semi which means that the dog selected for each race will have to run at least into second spot. Which is a tall order; but here goes…

I have ranked the 18 dogs based on ‘good pace’ and have allocated my tissue price to each greyhound and come up with a ‘value’ bet. I’ve taken note of the stiff opposition in the shape of Clash Harmonica, Zigzag Dutchy and West Tipp who will take a bit of beating; but there is always hope in dog racing and I wouldn’t find it interesting to go along with the ‘crowd’.

Selection Bubbly Tojo 60/88. My price: 12/1; Ladbrokes 25/1. I point ew.

From 2nd semi Broadacres Rob 60/78. My price 7/1; Coral’s 33/1. 1 point ew .

From 3rd semi Droopys Sami 60/72. My price:5/1; Coral’s 10/1. 2 points win

There are no prices for betting on the semi–finals yet, but I will probably support those dogs when prices are available. If they are ‘value’.

One dog into the final will keep the interest going. Good luck!

Come racing!!

Ninja Blue is the worthy champion …

… in the Wimbledon St Leger beating Westmead Olivia in a photo finish by a short head.
It was an exciting race that could easily have been a dead heat. The big surprise was the running of Blissful Classic, a dog I had dismissed, who finished 3rd !

I said in my last blog that in order to win Westmead Olivia needed to improve on her sectional time of 15.72 sec. She didn’t; it was 15.73. Ninja Blue’s split time was 15.52 – fastest out of the trap. It made all the difference.

Fabulous Sophie was outclassed in the end, finishing 4th and as I was sure it was unlikely to win, after studying my graph, I put 2 points win on Westmead Olivia at 9/2 as a saver - which, in fact was a loser, which increased my losses by 2 points. My total loss (I’d won a little in the heats) was: 11 3/4 points. Not a great amount; but that is racing!

On the same Wimbledon Card on Sky Sport I was pleased to see Amarillo Slim and Temple Lad competing against each other. Perhaps you will remember these two from an earlier blog? They had both ran with great distinction earlier in the season; and I have bet them both in the 2007 Derby at good prices. Well, Amarillo Slim finished last in the Wimbledon race (possible injury) but Temple Lad who had come in as a reserve won in great style at 5/1. I didn’t back either as I did not know they were running. Keep them in mind as good dogs to follow.

I’m not sure what race I’ll tackle next - but there will be one… excuse me while I go and lick my wounds…!

Come racing!!

Fabulous Sophie goes for the greyhound St Leger Final...

... but what's her chances ?

A look at the graph indicates that she is not out of it but others look like they have shown a better steady improvement.

Let's look at what we think we can eliminate to give us an edge...Blissful Classic in trap 6 looks like it is out of it; so that goes.

Ninja Blue is the best trapper with a 15.35 split time and it has done nothing wrong so far so I reckon it will be in the shake-up at the end.

Blackmagic Guy is a significant improver but I feel that it won't quite make it; even though it has a good sectional time of 15.48.

Fabulous Sophie and Daisyfield Seani's performance looks on a par except Daiseyfield has a better sectional time.

So, although I hope Fabulous Sophie wins - because I've bet her ante- post at 12/1- it looks to me that Westmead Olivia at 9/2 (Ladbrokes and Coral) is the good value bet, to improve once more, and take the trophy with Ninja Blue as second string at a great value price of 4/1 Coral.

Westmead will have to get out quicker than 15.72 sec, though!

Come racing!!

St Leger update…

…two of my selections are through to the Semi-Finals but they are drawn in the same semi. They are: trap 2 Dark Hondo and trap1 Fabulous Sophie.

Droopys Leah could only make 4th place and Chobham Star came down like a lead balloon into 6th place.

I’ve done the semi-finals with my idea of what the odds ought to be; along with prices on offer:
1st Semi

Alabama Star 5; on offer: 20 Lad – Excellent value.
Rosewell Bluesky 12; on offer: 16 Cor- Good value.
Westmead Swift 5/2; on offer: 5/2 Cor- No value.
Blackmagic Guy 9; on offer: 10 Cor/Lad – Slight value.
Daiseyfield Seani 2; on offer: 1/1 Lad –No value.
Blissfull Classic 3; on offer: 6 Cor – Good value.


2nd Semi

Fabulous Sophie 5; on offer: 11/4 Lad –No value.
Dark Hondo 2; on offer: 9/2Lad – Excellent value.
Jazz Hurricane 12; on offer: 12 Cor- No value.
Drominboy Jet 9; on offer: 12 Cor – Slight value.
Westmead Olivia 3; on offer: 3 Cor – No value.
Ninja Blue 5/2; on offer: 7/2 Cor – Good Value.

I have no runners in the 1st semi but the 20/1 on offer for Alabama Star is much better than my price of 5/1 so I will bet it: 1 point ew 1/4 odds 1.2.

In the second semi I will bet 2 points win on: Dark Hondo 9/2.

I won’t bet Fabulous Sophie at less than 5/1 in the semi ( no value) although I hope it qualifies for the final with Dark Hondo.

I have increased my St Leger Final bets by 1 point win Dark Hondo at 10/1 Ladbrokes price; and Fabulous Sophie by 1 point win at 5/1 Ladbrokes price; to improve on the 33/1 I have on Hondo and the 12's on Sophie.

Come racing!!

In support of my Wimbledon St Leger bets...

...I've bet the same dogs in their heats tonight; here they are:

2 points win Fabulous Sophie at 1/1 Coral
1 point ew Droopys Leah at 10/1 Coral
1 point ew Dark Hondo at 5/1 Coral
1 point ew Chobham Star at 25/1 Ladbrokes

I had to bet the last one at that price even though I rate it at 12/1 to win the heat. I've bet it mostly because, if by some fluke it won, I would kick myself if I didn't have a bean on it!! So much for form.Eh...

As I haven't much more to put on my blog I thought I might as well put on a snap I took of my tele whilst the William Hill Grand National was on. You will see that it is a picture of the Sky Sports Predictor with the ratings of the dogs.

Now, I always thought that the predictor was probably a computer generated programme using some computer mumbo-jumbo, which I found quite impressive, but I noticed the dogs positions were very like the graph I had produced for my blog.

On taking a closer look, and comparing the predictor ratings of: 99, 89,83 etc with the ratings in the Racing Post...they were exactly the same!

So there you are - you don't have to wait 'expectantly' for Sky Sports to give you a few seconds glance at the predictor (at a time when you probably couldn't get a bet on, anyway) you just have to buy a Racing Post; or better still read it in the bookies for nothing...!!

Come racing!!

Sky Sports Predictor. William Hill.Co Greyhound Grand National Final.

It’s still a lot of fun – even when you lose…

… with Disco Stu running into 3rd place in the Irish Laurels.

I had a good go at it but it wasn’t to be… that is Disco Stu winning at 25/1.

I was aware that it would be an uphill struggle because my last graph told me that Droopys Electric or Ardkill Jamie would likely win and Ardkill Jamie won by a neck in a 5 dog race with the withdrawal of that great little dog Tyrur Ted who has been retired.

Although I picked up 6.25 points with Disco Stu my total losses throughout this exercise, that is Final, Semi and quarter Finals and early heats was: 1 and 1/4 points.
But I got a lot of entertainment and fun from doing it.

Now to look at the Wimbledon Greyhound St Leger… Here we go:

The two favourites have been knocked out in the early round and I was amazed to see that 16 dogs out of the 24 that got through to the next round had no ‘best time’ for the 668 metres race. That’s what makes this great game challenging: attempting to weigh up whether dogs running over different distances will last out over the St Leger course.

I’ve done some work to see what dogs have run at a ‘good pace’ over some of those distances and here’s what I’ve found (with current odds):-

Chobham Star 59/28; odds 66/1.Westmead Olivia 59/75 odds 8/1.Teds Anchor 60/19 odds 12/1.Ninja Blue 60/30 odds 5/1. Magna Mike 60/56 odds 33/1. Fabulous Sophie 60/92 odds 12/1.

Keep an eye on them to see what happens. Ninja Blue is vying for favouritism with Westmead Swift at present. I’ve got Westmead Swift over 640m as a 61/43 dog…but I know the Westmeads are always open to improvement.

My usual method with these races is to make a list ranking the dogs in order. I then work out the percentage the bookies are betting at. I then allot my prices to the list and compare what value is on offer from the layers.

These are the ‘value’ bets I’m going to run with:

Fabulous Sophie, my price 6/1; Ladbrokes 12/1; 2 points win at 12/1 (not worth betting ew 1/4 odds place 1234; better to double the stake).

Droopys Lea, my price10/1; Coral’s 33/1; 1 point ew 1/4 odds place.

Dark Hondo my price 12/1; Coral’s 33/1; 1 point ew.

Chobham Star is well down my list and is not a value bet but I’m going to back it with 1 point ew at 66/1 purely on the ‘pace figure’ of 59/28 I gave you at the beginning. I like to run with a big outsider to see how far I can go with it. Should be interesting…

Come racing!!

Gnasher was last...
.
..and so was Tyrur Brett in the second semi-final of the Irish Laurels. Ah well! At least Disco Stu, who won the first semi is through to the Final. That's a relief!

Bog Dale Lad was 4th in his semi. So he didn't run too bad for a 100/1 shot.
The traps for the Final are as follows, and based on the graph my values are :

Trap 1 Ardkill Jamie , my price 5/2; Ladb odds 11/4; good value.
Trap 2 Disco Stu 5/1; Ladb 4/1; no value.
Trap 3 Droopys Electric 6/4; Ladb 11/4; excellent value; lump on if you fancy it!
Trap 4 Tyrur Lee 7/2; Ladb 11/4; no value.
Trap 5 Oran Premier 6/1; Ladb 12/1; excellent value; especially 1/4 odds 1.2.
Trap 6 Tyrur Ted 12/1 ; Ladb 6/1; no value.

My book is 128.47%. Ladbrokes is 128.69% and they have taken the easy route and made 3 joint favourites at 11/4! If you fancy Droopys Electric or Ardkill Jamie at 11/4 the book is in your favour - they should be much shorter.

It was a toss-up with Oran Premier and Tyrur Ted who would be the longer price and it is obvious that Ladbrokes decided that the experience and reputation of Tyrur Ted wins the day; but my graph puts that in doubt. I wouldn't be surprised at this level which of the six dogs won; they all stand a chance; so it should be a good race.

Study the graph and check the figures on the Irish website at : www.shelbournepark.com

Go to: Upcoming Meetings; click on Cork 21/10/06.
Go to: Race 9 Cashmans Bookmakers Irish Laurels Final 09.30;
click on : View Complete Race Form.

A word of warning though, when reading Irish racing form you have to start at the top of each trap form and work downwards as the dates are arranged in order of the oldest race date first and the latest race at the bottom. It's the opposite to our race card in Britain.

Update on my semi-final betting:
I lost 2 points on Gnasher and 2 points on Tyrur Brett but I picked up 4 points on Disco Stu. So I'm even.

I've bet Disco Stu at 25/1 and 16/1- here's hoping for a result.

I have put the split times on the graph under each dog and you can see that Droopys Electric is the fastest starter. The prices at the bottom of the graph (in green) are my prices.

I have bet Amarillo Slim (from a good source) at 50/1 for the English Greyhound Derby 2007 and Temple Lad at 80/1; both at Coral.

Come racing!!

The Irish Laurels Semi-Final trap numbers are out...

...so I have made a tissue on the two races (my price first; Ladbrokes price second) :

Note - Ladbrokes are betting at 119.32%; I am at around 20%.

Trap 1 Moonveen Doyler 11/1; Ladb 12/1; very slight value. Unrealistic bet.
Trap 2 Disco Stu 5/2; Ladb 4/1; excellent value ; realistic; good bet.
Trap 3 Westmead Iroko 20/1; Ladb 50/1; good value if you fancy it - I don't.
Trap 4 Droopys Electric 6/4; Ladb 1/1; no value; deserves to be favourite.
Trap 5 Gnasher 3/1; Ladb 8/1; excellent value, I'm betting it for the semi.
Trap 6 Tyrur Ted 6/1; Ladb 5/2; no value; good little battler.

Second semi:

Trap 1 Bog Dale Boy 6/1; Ladb 12/1; good value; but..I'll leave it...
Trap 2 Tyrur Brett 7/2; Ladb 3/1; no value.
Trap 3 Tyrur Lee 5/1; Ladb 7/2; no value.
Trap 4 Black Abbey Lord 12/1; Ladb 20/1; good value; not for me.
Trap 5 Ardkill Jamie 9/4; Ladb 9/4; = value; no bet; no edge).
Trap 6 Oran Premier 5/2; Ladb 5/2; = value; no bet. (But could be the overall winner of the Laurels).

My selections:
2 points Gnasher 8/1
Saver : 1 point Disco Stu 4/1

2 points Tyrur Brett at SP (in the hope it will be bigger than 3/1).

I forgot to update on my bets in the heats: all that I gained was a 1.5 points profit. I'm hoping I get at least one dog into the Final, though...

Come racing!!

First an update on the Irish Puppy Derby…

… in the event Oran Majestic won it and my two selections Winetavern Henry (14/1) was 2nd with Rusheen Hondo 3rd. I hadn’t done much work on that race – so it was not too bad. My outlay on the final and the semi was 5 points; my return was 3 points; a two points deficit.

Now to the Irish Laurels. I’ve lost one dog out of my 4 selections: Final Showdown 4th.

The semi– finals trap numbers have been issued and it looks like there is a strong semi (A) with three 1/4 final winners, one 2nd place dog and two 3rd place dogs.

The weak semi (B) has one 1st place dog, three 2nd place and two 3rd place.

So, this is my strategy in betting dogs to reach the final (and hopefully to increase my ‘perceived’ profit), based on what I see in the two semi-s.

I’m adding Gnasher 25/1 ( my tissue price 4/1), 1point ew 1/5th 1.2.3.

And increasing my stake on Disco Stu (already on at 25/1ew) by a 1 point win at 16/1( that’s Ladbrokes price at present, I rate him a 4/1 shot at this point; in this game of ‘greyhound poker’ !).

Tyrur Brett is worth a 1 point win stake at 10/1(my price, at this stage, to win the final 6/1).

By far my weakest bet, based on running so far: Bog Dale Boy (already bet at 100/1 ew) 3rd in the 1/4 finals.

Amazingly, still 100/1. Well you never know with dog racing so I’m staking another 1 point ew on it at 1/5 odds 1.2.3 (it would pay 24 points return if it reaches 3rd in the final and 24 points if it reaches 4th place with the first bet I placed on it).

If it wins the final I would like the name changed to BLOG Dale Boy!

I was right when I said in a previous blog : that the dog that had been added, Oran Premier, was fast (59/45) because it is now in the semi-finals at 5/1 having run 2nd in the 1/4 final. The bookies must have known about it when they entered it high on their list at 6/1, when the competition started. It is 58 and 59 dogs that win big finals.

There are no prices for the semi-finals which are run at Cork on 14th October, so we will take a look at them when the prices come out.

(By the way, thanks for your letter, Richard; much appreciated.)

Come racing!!

A Final is a tougher proposition than a heat…

… as I was about to find out in the final of the William Hill Grand National with a good hand of: 4 good prospects in the final; all at great prices; with only one of them getting 2nd place!

Suit Man was a really great winner with a fantastic burst of speed, for a hurdler, and he had the benefit of experience as he had done at least 4 good runs at that distance before tackling the final.

My losing stake was 8 points, but as I won in the semis it wasn’t so bad.

Here is an update on the Irish Laurels Quarter Finals:

I have produced a list from the 1/ 4 Finals of 9 dogs that represent ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ value but I have cut the list down to 4 as I believe that the others are too short on price or are too far down my speed list.

These are my selections:

2 points win Orion Premier; rating 59/45; my tissue price 1/1 Ladbrokes price 11/4.
1 point win Tyrur Brett; rating 60/26; my price 1/1 Ladbrokes 4/1.
1 point win Bog Dale Boy; rating 60/28; my price 2/1 Ladbrokes 8/1.
1 point win Final Showdown; rating 60/47; my price 3/1 Ladbrokes 7/1.

Bog Dale Boy and Tyrur Brett are in the same 1/4 final; the only reason I’m betting Tyrur Brett is as a ‘saver’.

The other dog I have in my first list, Disco Stu, which I consider an excellent value bet for the Final is only 5/2 for the quarter final, and unless you put a lot of money on… wouldn’t be worth betting. I think it is an even money shot to win its heat; although it has Ardkill Jamie in trap 6, who is the record holder over 525yards at this Curraheen Park Greyhound Stadium in Cork, to contend with!

Come racing!!

Update post on the Irish Laurels...

...The Irish heats, complete with trap numbers, for this contest are now available and I see that they have put in three dogs that did not need to qualify. This has put my tissue slightly out; but not enough to make me concerned.

I've analysed the three dogs and have slotted them in based on their recent times. This makes life interesting because one of the dogs has a really excellent time and takes its place at the top of my list in front of Holborn Post!

Oran Premier is its name ,which I have priced at 3/1; Ladbrokes have it in their list as 6/1 - which makes it an 'excellent value' bet. If I was betting only one dog; I would consider betting it. But I'm looking for ew value bets with a chance of reaching the final-it being a bonus if they win; and a lot can happen during heats.

The next interesting new entry to consider is Bog Dale Boy which I have priced at 22/1; which slots ino my tissue about 7th from the top of the total list of 24. Ladbrokes have priced it at 100/1 which I consider is really excellent value and is worth 1 point ew 1/4 odds a place. So I will be adding it to my list which will now comprise of :

Disco Stu 25/1
Final Showdown 33/1
Tyrur Brett 33/1
Bog Dale Boy 100/1

The 3rd dog added to the heats is Blue Majestic at 100/1, Ladbroke's odds, but I see it was originally in at 40/1. It is about mid-way in my list and could be classed as a good value bet; but I'm put off by the fact that the price has gone out in the betting; besides I've got enough 'hopefuls' in there already!

Come racing!!

I’ve got 3 dogs through to the final of the Wimbledon Grand National…

… Custom Paul 12/1, Druids Scully 20/1, and Snazzy Time 50/1.

The other dog that I bet, Xamax Mr Grumpy – how did they come up with that name? – did not qualify. The bets are paid for, though, as I bet Custom Paul 11/2 and Snazzy Time 8/1 to win their heats; which they did. And Druids Scully 5/1 was 2nd to Suit Man which I bet each way. So the bets running now are at no cost.

The two favourites Knockafurtig and That’s The Bullet failed to qualify and the new favourite is Suit Man.

A dog I was tempted to bet is in the final, Baran Geronimo, was priced at 20/1 and is now available with W Hill at 14/1; I think I will put 1 point to win on it so that I will have 4 dogs running in the final…A bit of insurance…

On to other things – I have two dogs through to a semi-final of the Irish Puppy Derby but I didn’t have time to put them on my blog. They are: Rusheen Hondo, 1 point win at 5/1 and Winetavern Henry, 1 point ew at 14/1. I’m hopeful one of them will win.

Now that won’t help readers of this blog, but this might…

I have done a study of the Irish Laurels that will be run soon. The first heats were run on Saturday at Cork. I have done my usual task of making a list of the times and then writing my own tissue of prices based on how good the times are. I don’t at this stage have any idea of what the draw for heats will contain but I’ve been busy putting on a few bets at fairly good prices with Ladbroke; 1.2.3.4 a place.

The fastest dog so far is a dog that performed well in the Irish Greyhound Derby called Holborne Post and although it is probably the winner, at 3/1 it doesn’t suit my tactics. It is too easy to fall down over several tough heats and at 3/1– no thanks!

Anyway, I’ve sorted out what I think are ‘value’ bets. The first figure is my tissue price; the second figure is Ladbroke’s price. Value is about getting, for example, an even money shot at say 2/1 - based on how high up you have ranked your dog.

Irish Laurels Final :

8/1 Disco Stu 25/1 Ladbroke – excellent value.
8/1 Tyrur Brett 33/1 - excellent value.
14/1 Final Showdown 33/1 – very good value.

All are at 1/4 odds 1.2.3. 4. place.

See how they get on in their heats; if they don’t do well we might have to make some adjustments to our betting; but it looks like a good betting race at this stage.

Come racing!!

The Wimbledon Grand National is next on the agenda…

…I thought I would have a go at a greyhound hurdle race and what better than the Grand National run over 460 metres at Wimbledon?

There has been one round of heats so there is not a lot to go on with only one run. Nevertheless I have prepared a chart with all the times so far. My strategy is to play it a little like the football pools and bet a few hopefuls to see where that takes us.

Here are the times converted to seconds /metre; see if we can spot any significant improvers after the semi-finals; and during this exercise.

Knockafurtig 61/82; (fastest so far)

Then the next group:

Custom Paul 62/08; Jills Fault 62/13; Baran Geronimo 62/13; Druids Sully 62/15; Suit Man 62/19; Xamax Mr Grumpy 62/21; Droopys Campo 62/28; Snazzy Time 62/28; Thats The Bullet 62/28; Dechardon 62/30; Heavens Supreme 62/45; Kelso Brumo 62/47; Ballymoyer Mick 62/78;

And finally the slowest ; so far:

Druids Forrest 63/04; Ballyeacle 63/15; Taipan 63/21; Liscarney Jack 63/21.

Knockafurtig and Thats The Bullet are the current favourites with Taipan (which was slow) fairly well up the list. The bookies must be expecting Taipan to improve…

Well the layers can control the ante post prices but they can’t control the draw for the 3 semi- finals; so there are some interesting couplings in there.

Lets look at the semi-finals. I’ve not put them in trap order. I have arranged them in pace order as shown in my list. The top dogs are the quickest on what evidence we have so far.

Semi-final 1 :-

Jills Fault 62/13; 9/2 odds
Snazzy Time 62/28; 50/1 odds
Kelso Brumo 62/47; 33/1 odds
Dechardon 62/30; 66/1 odds
Taipan 63/21; 6/1 odds


Semi –final 2:-

Knockafurtig 61/82; 4/1 odds ( but unbelievably 8/1 with Coral)
Custom Paul 61/08; 12/1 odds
Baran Geronimo 62/13; 20/1 odds
Droopys Campo 62/28; 20/1 odds
Druids Forrest 63/04; 20/1 odds
Ballyeacle 63/15; 33/1 odds


Semi final 3:-

Druids Sully 62/15; 20/1 odds
Suit Man 62/19; 5/1 odds
Xamax Mr Grundy 62/21; 40/1 odds
Thats The Bullet 62/28; 7/2 odds
Ballymore Mick 62/78; 16/1 odds
Liscarney Jack 63/21; 40/1 odds

Study those figures if you want to bet ante-post; 1/4 odds a place 1.2.3.

My selections are:

1 point ew Snazzy Time 50/1 Coral
1 point ew Druids Sully 20/1 Coral
1 point win Custom Paul 12/1 Coral
1 point ew Xamax Mr Grundy 40/1 Ladbroke


There will be the opportunity to bet my selections in the semi-finals which might pay for my ante post bets if I’m lucky. We will see.

Mind you the 8/1 on offer for Knockafurtig with Coral does look tempting as a good win bet…

Come racing!!

Womble brings me down to earth…
… with a bump!! Ouch!

It is never a surprise in dog racing when the outsider wins; Womble, trap 4, won at 25/1 and left the bookies smiling. Its price was 50/1 ante-post earlier this week.

It was first out of the traps and was never headed. Fear Me, trap5, ran into 2nd position with Droopys Sami 3rd. Although it had improved its time the race wasn’t a particularly fast time. It was 29.39 secs. I’m sure we will hear more about this dog, though.

I couldn’t make up my mind on this race and ended up backing Droopys Sami and Farloe Hobbs.

I decided I would risk 7 points on this race using a Dutching Calculator to work out what I should put on each dog.

A Dutching Calculator can be accessed at ‘Tools’ on www.oddschecker.com

This is how it works:

My two selections were priced at 15/8 and 3/1.

The first thing to do is to change the fractions to decimal and add 1 (for the stake).

So, 15/8 = 15 divided by 8 = 1.875. Then add 1 = 2.875.

Next : 3+1 = 4.

Enter 2.875 in the first field of the calculator; and then enter 4 in the second field.

Enter the total staked, 7 points, in the Total Staked field

Press the button marked Recalculate and the calculator shows the stake required for each selection that will return the same amount no matter which selection wins.

In this case I wanted a 5 point profit so my stake was actually 4.32 points on the 15/8 shot and 3.11 points on the 3/1 dog. If either selection had won the return would have been 12.43 points; which included the 5 point profit.

The calculator will take up to 12 selections in horse racing and it can be used in football bets if, for instance, you fancy that a certain team won’t get defeated, but you don’t know whether your team will win or draw, then you can bet it for a win and a draw with the Dutching Calculator and return the same profit; either way.

The Sheffield Steel City Cup was a big let down for me and for most of the punters but at least it gave me the opportunity to talk about the Dutching Calculator…

Come racing!!

Sheffield Steel City Cup...

...I haven't followed the heats of this 500m competition; but I have found time to make a graph which has 2 runs on it (the heat and the semi-final) but it is highly illuminatimg, for all that.

Droopys Sami is an interesting dog having only run two times in its career; both runs in the 29.20 range. It looks, in the graph, like a worthy, if inexperienced, favourite at around 7/4. If it can duplicate its last run it should be good enough to win this contest.

Examining the graph, again, the dog that could rob Droopys of victory appears to be Farloe Hobbs. At around 3/1 it seems like the next logical best bet if you want to take on the favourite.

You would need at least a 5 point stake to make any money out of this race. I will bet one or the other but will leave it until the Final on Saturday to bet as I could lose my stake if one of them is withdrawn.

The bookies odds are at the top of the graph; the price tissue I have made is at the bottom. I've put 2/1 Farloe Hobbs; the bookies have got it at least 3/1 or 100/30, so in my book that makes it a 'value' bet.

I like betting 'value,' so that might be just what I will plonk for.We'll see...

Examine the graph; make up your own mind, it's your money!

Come racing!!

 

Riverview Toby sees them all off…

…The Final of the Northumberland Plate was an exciting event with trap 1 Riverview Toby triumphing over Belpac Tomas, trap 2, with Lundhill Flash,scratch dog, running from trap 6 into 3rd place.

The trap ‘R’ numbers, showing the lengths received, were printed in the Racing Post on Tuesday: -

Droopys Rocokoko R3 – means 3 metres off of the 670 metres = 667m.
Time and Time Again R5 – 5m off = 665m
Lundhill Flash R5 –5m off = 665m
Portant Lady R6 – 6m off = 664m
Bellpac Tomas R8 – 8m off = 662m
Riverview Toby R10–10m off = 660m

I was amazed at the leeway Riverview Toby got with, effectively, a 7 metre start (although listed 10 metres, as Droopys Rokocoko was given R3 metres from the starting line).

I spoke to an old hand at the game, called Ginger, who told me that in handicaps such as this the dogs keep their handicap marks throughout the heats. He said that the original 'scratch' dog at the beginning of the competition must have been knocked out in the heats! So there you have it. No wonder Riverview Toby looked such a good thing!

My total outlay on the heats and the Final was 10 points and as I had already picked up 14 points in the heats and Droopys Rokocoko made 3rd place at 12/1 (I got 3 points return) making 17 points, my total profit was 7 points.

I learned some things about this excercise on handicaps but I wouldn't mind betting that a lot of punters don't know what they are betting on when it comes to dog racing handicaps.

I for one, will know next time. Well done those who bet Riverview Toby !

Hopefully my next blog will contain a graph of the Steel City Cup at Sheffield on Saturday - if I get around to it...

Come racing!!

Handicap of handicappers…

… That’s the Northumberland Plate.

Three heats of handicap races have been run leaving three winners and three runners-up to contest the Northumberland Plate Final.

This provides us with a conundrum about the likely winner of this race.

I’ve not seen any article on handicapping dog races so, from what I know, let’s try and work it out…

The first thing we know is that if one dog in a race beats another dog by 1 length (roughly a metre) it is deemed to have beaten it by o.o8 seconds.

Half a length would be 0.04 and a head would be 0.02.

In Ireland it would be deemed 0.06 for a yard; as they race in yards.

When preparing a handicap race let’s assume dog ‘A’ has done the fastest time of all six dogs and has won over 670 metres in 40.00 seconds.

This will be placed in trap 6 in the ‘scratch’ position as the superior dog.

Let’s assume dog ‘F’ has done the worst time over 670m in 41.10 seconds; it will be placed in trap 1; as the inferior dog.

We have to work out how many metres trap 1 should be placed ahead of trap 6…

Subtract the time of the superior dog ‘A’ (40.00 sec) from the inferior dog ‘F’ (41.10 sec)

41.10 sec minus 40.00 sec = 1.10 sec.

Divide 0.08 sec (deemed 1 length) into 1.10 sec = 13.75 (deemed 13.75 lengths).

Therefore trap 1 would be placed 13.75 metres (rounded up to 14 metres) ahead of trap 6.

The other dogs B C D and E will be treated in a similar way with the, ‘bench mark,’ superior ‘A’ dog’s time subtracted from each dogs’ time to establish the number of metres BCD and E will be ahead.

The ‘metres ahead’ for dogs on the race card is referred to as ‘R’ metres. The ‘R’ means: Received. That is lengths received from the superior dog ‘A’ in trap 6.
Trap 6 is described on the race card as: ‘Scr’ meaning scratch.

In the example above R14 means trap 1 has: 14 lengths start on trap 6.

Now to turn to the Northumberland Plate; I hope the two dogs I have in it, Droopys Rokocoko a worthy 2nd favourite in trap 6 and Lundhill Flash in trap 4 do well but a lot depends on how the traps have been allocated.

I heard one commentator on tv saying that as far as possible the dogs in the final would keep the same traps. I’m in the dark about how the draw was made and I certainly don’t know at this stage, what, if any, ‘R’ lengths have been allotted; presumably they will be allotted as it is a handicap. I will find out on Tuesday when the race is run.

Based on the calculated times issued on the six dogs, in my view the traps should be as follows with Droopys Rokocoko in scratch position in trap 6 with a best calculated time of 41.71.

Droopys Rokocoko 41.71 Trap 6
Portant Lady 41.92 Trap 5
Lundhill Flash 41.93 Trap 4
Riverview Toby 42.03 Trap 3
Time and Tide 42.10 Trap 2
Belpac Tomas 42.24 Trap 1

But the actual allocation of the traps is much different. So therefore I believe that there is a possibility that the traps allocated leaves us with room to exploit the differences in what, theoretically, they should be; to what they actually are!

I have listed them with comments about the treatment of the dogs. These are the actual trap placings, with the sponsor’s ( William Hill) odds :-

Trap 6 Droopys Rokocoko – correct trap; worthy scratch dog 11/4
Trap 5 Time And Tide – badly treated; a mountain to climb 6/1
Trap 4 Lundhill Flash – correct trap, even chance, no excuses 7/2
Trap 3 Portant Lady - well in; ought to be in trap 5;V/G value 11/2
Trap 2 Belpac Tomas - no favours; should be in trap 1; possible 7/1
Trap 1 Riverview Toby- really well in; how did it get this trap? 9/4

See what you think about this race and see if you can spot the winner; as my two are in the correct traps I’m quite pleased; but I might have little side bet as Potent Lady is very good value and Riverview Toby will never have a better chance of glory!

I hope this has been helpful…

Come racing!!

Update: Two in the Final…

…Two dogs out of my 4 reached the Final of the Northumberland Plate.
Graham Calvert Jnr’s Droopys Rokocoko (12/1) powered to a strong finish to win its heat and my top rated Lundhill Flash (16/1) was equally impressive in doing the business.

I’ve lost some side bets + the cash on the bets for the Final for the other two picks but I’ve made up for it by 2 points side bets on Droopys at 5/1 and Lundhill at 4/1.

It’s all to play for in the final…

Come racing!!

I’m having a go at the William Hill Northumberland Plate…

…This contest is held at Brough Park over 670 metres, and because these animals have run over a multitude of distances it will be a difficult greyhound contest to work out; also most have been running in handicaps which are not very good races to compile a speed reference from.

I’ve been through the list of the 18 dogs involved and I have ranked them in speed figures; as I have seen them. I have allocated my price to each dog from 5/1 to 100/1. But the bookies ranking is from 7/1 to 33/1. I find it difficult to believe they haven’t gone to at least 66/1 - but then they don’t really gamble; do they?

Anyway, my top 4 dogs, which I have priced, are from 5/1 to 10/1.

They are as follows:-

Lundhill Lass 60/98 speed; my price 5/1; bookies price 16/1 ew 1.2.3. Excellent value bet.(1 point ew)
Magna Mike 61/61 speed; my price 6/1; bookies price 10/1. Good value, win only. (2 points win).
Stitchill Bronze 61/62speed; my price 8/1; bookies price 20/1 ew 1.2.3. Excellent value (1 point ew).
Droopys Rokocoko 62/11 speed; my price 10/1 ew 1.2.3; bookies price 12/1 ew 1.2.3 Slight value (1 point ew).

I have put on some side bets on the 3 heats tonight. If they win they will pay for my bets on the Final. Here’s hoping for a good run!

Come racing!!

Razldazl Billy wins the Derby in style…

…What a race! It lived up to expectations although the result wasn’t what I thought it would be with the favourite, Kieron Fallon’s dog Bar The Devil finishing last!

Take nothing away from Razldazl Billy this dog won in fantastic style over the 550yds in a stunning time of 29.49 sec. Which I have rated him as a 58/63 dog.

This dog was on the orginal list of Derby dogs I posted on my blog on 30th June; he was reasonably high on the list classified as a 59/71 dog; an extraordinary improvement to 58/63! Paddy Power bookmakers (http://www.paddypower.com/) had him at best price 16/1 then. Well done, if you spotted him at the time of writing, I didn’t think he would have increased his pace per metre by that much.

Two of my selections finished 2nd and 3rd. Antrim Classic 33/1 and Skywalker Magic 50/1. My other selection Barefoot Jenny ran disappointingly into 5th place.

I suppose it wasn’t too bad picking, so far in advance of the Derby and I do have the each way returns of: 8.25+12.5= 20.75 points.
The race gave me a great thrill and I was pleasantly surprised that Sky Sports put it on the box live.

My profit was negligble after deducting my losses although Barefoot Jenny helped me out when she won her heat at 12/1.

The main thing is I had a lot of enjoyment searching for that elusive thing, at a good price - a Greyhound Derby winner. Plus the fact that my methods seem to work.

Let's see what happens next and what winners we might get from the lists that have been compiled of vey good dogs that we can still have a bet on.

Come racing!!

My graph 'shouts out' that: Bar The Devil should win the Irish Greyhound derby...

..by a good margin!

Kieron Fallon's greyhound looks a good bet at 2/1 Coral. www.coral.co.uk
and the graph shows that it seems it is in a different league. Although a word of caution, because it is running from trap 1 which it has only won from once.

The graph also shows that Barefoot Jenny, trap 2, and Skywalker Magic, trap 6, are not out of it and I fancy Barefoot Jenny to be, perhaps, the first bitch to win the Derby. (I'm not sure of the stats on that). I hope so, because I have bet her ante-post at 50/1 ew 1.2.3.4. a place. This fast finishing bitch will take all the beating and she has a lot of crafty experience as she is a year older than the others; except Trey United.

If Jenny pulls it off she could be world famous because people love stories about a fast bitch!

Skywalker Magic, which I have also bet ante-post at 50/1 ew, is in an ideal wide trap to capatalise on any mistakes made by the front runners.

My third bet ante-post 33/1 ew Antrim Classic, trap 3, is my least fancied, but the graph shows it is not a forlorn hope, and if it runs into 4th I will collect!

Study the graph to see what you think about the others.
Visit www.dog-a-roo.blgspot.com

Good luck.

Come racing!!

I’m in a fairly rosy position after the semi-final heats of the Irish Derby…

… with three of my ante-post bets in the final!! The favourite: He Said So, was a surprising elimination in that round!

My three remaining bets – from over a hundred dogs are:
Barefoot Jenny 50/1
Antrim Classic 33/1
Skywalker Magic 50/1
All each way at ¼ odds 1,2,3,4, places.

Barring withdrawals, or accidents, one of my dogs is certain to get at least 4th place.

To speculate on the possible minimum return of 1 point each way if:
Antrim Classic, 4th place or better, return = 8¼ points.
Barefoot Jenny = 12½
Skywalker Magic= 12½

If:
Two 50/1 get placed, 12½ +12 ½ = 25 points
All 3 get placed, 8¼ +12 ½ + 12 ½ = 33¼

If:
Either 50/1 wins, 50+12½ = 62½ points
33/1 wins, 33+ 8¼ = 41¼

If:
Either 50/1 wins and 50/1 placed, 50+ 12 1/2+ 12 1/2 = 75
Either 50/1 wins and 33/1 placed, 50+12 1/2+8¼ = 70 3/4
33/1 wins and 50/1placed, 33/1+ 8 1/4+12 ½ = 53 3/4
33/1 wins and two 50/1 placed, 33+ 8 1/4+12½+12½ = 66 1/4
50/1 wins and 50/1 and 33/1 placed, 50+12½+12 1/2+8 ¼ = 83 1/2 (The best scenario)

Of course I have take off the cost of betting dogs that eliminated but I will calculate that later to see if I end up in profit. Although I did bet I point at 12/1 on Barefoot Jenny to win her semi-final, which she did, so that will take care of some losses!

Let’s hope it is not the minimum return of 8¼ that I pick up. But that is racing…
I wonder what the outcome will be?

I wonder what the odds are on all 3 dogs ending up in first 2nd and 3rd? Could happen!

I hope to put the Derby Final graph on the next blog.

Come racing!!

My second blog tonight looks at the 2nd semi-final of the Irish Greyhound Derby...

You will see that 4 dogs stand out in this graph. Holborn Post in trap 2, Barefoot Jenny in trap 4, Ardkill Jamie in trap 1 and SkywalkerMagic in trap 5.

Holborn Post seems to have the edge; we will see later tonight...

The first semi-final is in an earlier blog .

Come racing!! 

I'm a bit late with this, but I still think you will find it interesting...
...It is my new vertical graph of tonight's 1st semi-final of the Irish Greyhound Derby. I made the graph vertical so that it fits inside a racecard for ease in transferring the time data.

If you study the graph you will see that in trap 1 He Said So and in trap 5 Bar the Devil are in a higher panel than the other 4 dogs. In racing slang you would say 'In another County'. On this evidence they should both qualify tonight...



The graph of the other semi-final is a more conventional one, and should be on my next blog.

Come racing!!

Ante-post betting is a minefield; but fun…
… except when the luck of the draw contributes to your main hope being eliminated by your other 3 dogs!

As I said in my last blog: I had 4 dogs in the last quarter final heat in the Irish Greyhound Derby; 3 dogs got through to the semi-finals but Si Senor (at 10/1 for the final) did not qualify.

One of the three I have left, Antrim Classic, is drawn in the same semi-final heat as He Said So and Bar-The-Devil the two leading favourites and as only 3 can go through he will have to be on his mettle to qualify.

The other two Barefoot Jenny (I like that name of this bitch) and Skywalker Magic are drawn against fast finishing dog Holborn Post in the other semi-final so one of them might get into the final. I think it will be difficult for me to come out with a profit; but you never know in dog racing…

I like to take an objective ‘value betting’ view,- putting aside the ones I have bet- of dogs that might be in the final based on their recent times (converted to my ratings).

‘Value betting’ means evaluating the dogs; setting them down in a list from 1 to 6 based on how you see the race and not how the bookies see it.

So my list of who might be in the final with a tissue of around 120% would be:

Bookies current prices to win the Final:
Holborn Post (top rating 59/15) 1/1 8/1
He Said So (59/17- capable of better) 7/4 7/4
Martinstown Lass (59/51 fast finishing bitch) 9/2 25/1
Ardkill Jamie (59/51) 5/1 10/1
Trey United (59/75) 20/1 33/1
Bar The Devil (59/85) 25/1 5/2

Therefore if my list is correct for the Final (it may be so wrong!) the value bets at this stage would be:

Holborn Post – excellent value ( 8/1 for an even money shot).

Martinstown Lass 3rd top rated here - EXCELLENT VALUE (25/1 for a 9/2 shot).

Ardkill Jamie- good value 10/1 for a 5/1 dog.

Trey United – value 33/1 for a 20/1 dog.


See, it’s fun doing that sort of thing which may, or may not come off; but what would you take a chance on from that list? I would say Martinstown Lass at 25/1 quarter odds 1.2.3. a place with http://www.ladbrokes.com/ would represent a sporting bet. I don’t know if a bitch has ever won the Irish Derby; but who knows there is always a first time. Mind you if a bitch is going to win I hope it is Barefoot Jenny which I’ve backed at 50/1.

If you are going for big prices you will have to get on before Saturday; semi-final day.

Come racing!!

The Irish Greyhound Derby is still in progress…

… entering the quarter final stages at Shelbourne Park with the heats on Saturday evening.

I’ve added to my list of small stakes bets hoping for some each way bets to reach the final; but guess what? In the last heat, Race 11 no fewer than 4 of my selections have ended up opposing each other! And as only 3 can get through one of my bets will fall by the wayside.

Si Senor 10/1 (my main hope; now) has the best time but Tullow Rumble (not my selection) has the next best time. So I’ll be lucky if I get two through to the semi-final! Such is the luck of the draw, that lands my selections together…

The new ones I have added (they are in the above heat) because of pretty good times and good prices are:

Barefoot Jenny 50/1
Skywalker Magic 50/1

The other one in that heat is: Antrim Classic 33/1which I bet a while ago

We’ll see how it goes…

Come racing!!

Crunch day for big prices…
at Shelbourne Park tonight in the Irish Greyhound Derby if we are to get big prices before the quarter and semi–final stage.

I’ve made up my mind to support 4 more dogs from my Significant Improvers short list at good prices besides Catunda Francie (which I have bet at 100/1). The four are:

Si Senor 10/1
Lefanta April (bitch) 66/1
Ballyhoe Marble 33/1
Antrim Classic 33/1 (I missed the 50/1)

I expect the two favourite s to get through: He Said So ( last year’s winner) and Bar the Devil.

They should both be hard to beat but are not worth betting at short prices at this stage. When it comes to dog racing you can always live in
hope…

Come racing!!

Droopys Electric…shock exit !!

My ante post bet on Droopys at 20/1 didn’t get past the first round proper with a shock defeat whilst 10/1 favourite to win the competition. The connections must have been disappointed; but there is always other good races to be won.

I have been following the heats closely and I have a few dogs that could be classed at this stage as Significant Improvers. Take note:
12/1 Si Senor 59/07
66/1 Lefanta April 59/23
6/1 Bar The Devil 59/23(Kieron Fallon’s Dog)
40/1 Barlyhoe Marble 59/27
50/1 Antrim Classic 59/51

And last, but not least, last years winner : He Said So, has done a category 59/45 but we know from last years performance that he is capable of 58/73. It is no wonder he is 4/1 favourite now to win the Derby again.

There could be some value in taking a chance with some of the bigger prices…I might do that.

I’ve bet Catunda Francie at 100/1; but with a rating of 60/56 it will have to improve a great deal to win this – but you never know with dog racing; anything can happen!

Come racing!!

Greyhound Puppy Derby…Temple Lad 2nd…

Well, my gamble on Temple Lad was foiled by Droopys Tops winning by ½ a length, but it was a good try and I still came out winning on the each way bet which paid 11/1. It was a lot of fun working it out and I am pleased that my strategy of tracking ‘Significant Improvers’ moving up the category, bore some fruit. It will be a dog to keep in your sights as it is about 50/1 for next year’s Greyhound Derby; but then so is Amarrilo Slim too!

Things are beginning to happen in the Irish Greyhound Derby which has about 130 entries with the draw recently taking place. The long list I prepared in a previous blog will be out of date now because of a few absentees due to retirement or injury. Droopys Electric (I bet it at 20/1) is now favourite at 10/1 after the retirement of Tyrur Ted.

My original shortlist has lost some dogs with the withdrawal of : Goldstar Premier; Tyrur Ted; Group Rooster ( Kieren Fallon’s dog) and Winetavern Oscar.

I have seen the final list; complete with the draw. The First round proper takes place this week. At this point I will start to bring my analysis up to date; and see what is worth betting ante post. Meanwhile I have bet Catunda Francie at 100/1 ew. It is the fastest dog on my list but its rating has been gained over 400 yards: so I am taking a chance with it, but I think it is worthy of betting with a small stake at that price with Coral.

I had another winning bet on Quick Shift and I was wondering if trainer P. Ward would leave it in the Derby; but he didn’t!

Come racing!!

Temple Lad wins the semi-final…

… I’ve been tracking the performances of the young dogs in the William Hill Puppy Derby at Wimbledon ; but neglecting to update my blog .Which is a shame on me, because I had come to the conclusion that Temple Lad could improve its time enough to pose a threat to Cobra Striking in the Final, and I didn’t Blog it!

I bet Temple Lad at 50/1 (1/4 odds 123 place) in the Final but I couldn’t get on at 66/1 with www.betfred.com bookmaker because although it was that price on www.oddschecker.com the betting shop could not give me a price.

Can you believe that ? They spend thousands of pounds advertising and sponsoring races yet you can’t get the advertised price because you are not betting on the internet with an account!!

Anyway Temple Lad look likes it might win the Final as it beat the favourite Cobra Striking in an astounding time of 27.59 sec over 460m; by my calcs 59/97.

How did I come to the conclusion that Temple Lad was worth betting ante post; you might ask? Answer : the same way I bet Amarillo Slim to get a place in the Greyhound Derby. (An earlier Blog)

I listed all the times at the heat stage, when there were 18 dogs still in, and converted the times into metres /sec to make comparisons on my list. (I can compare them better that way). The dogs ranged from 60/05 (Cobra Striking’s time) to 62/63; Auton Swift’s time.

I sorted out a ‘Significant Improvers List’ of dogs moving up the category. I then had a list of 4 dogs :

Counts Ad Queen 14/1 www.ladbrokes.com
Manic Mile 5/1 www.totesport.com
Discrete Cat 12/1 www.ladbrokes.com
Temple Lad 66/1 www.betfred.com

I thought Temple Lad looked as if it had plenty of scope for improvement; and the 66/1 was very inviting!

We’ll see what happens in the Final but as I was only looking for ¼ odds 123 I will be pleased if it gets at least 3rd place in the final; if it wins, that will be a great bonus.

By the way I have bet Droopys Electric to win the Irish Greyhound Derby at 20/1 www.coral.com ; its price is now 10/1.

Come racing!!

Door Latch drops out tamely…

…from the Peterborough Veteran’s Greyhound Derby in the semi-finals, along with the 5/2 favourite Purple Monkey, who could only finish 3rd.

Bang, goes my 16/1 shot who came out of the number one box very slowly over the 420 metres and ran a poor race into 4th place in 26.10 secs. I expected a better show from Door Latch but it looks likely that had he reached the Final he would have struggled against Driving Up Rob who won his heat in a very quick time of 25.37 sec (a 60/40 catogory dog by my calculations). I expect Driving Up Rob will be the new (worthy) favourite…

On to another topic… I couldn’t believe my eyes when I looked at the Peterborough card for Saturday 8th, July because in the last race of the evening was a dog called Quick Shift.

Surely not the Irish greyhound, Quick Shift, that is listed in my last blog on the entries for the Irish Greyhound Derby at 100/1and a rating of 58/91?!! What was it doing an A1 contest at Peterborough?

I was at Peterborough dog racing on Saturday so I asked the trainer, Mr P. Ward, if it was the same dog; and it was! And its brother, Fat Man Scoops, from the same litter, was entered in the A3 race at 10 o’clock, that evening !

Both dogs had run a trial together and had done decent times at Peterborough. So I figured they would be a good betting proposition.
Especially with one of them entered in the Irish showpiece…

Quick Shift won at 6/4 and Fat Man Scoops won at 5/2 so I made a nice profit. Now that they are in England I will be surprised if the Irish Derby is still on the agenda; but you never know. I was impressed with both dogs and I will keep an eye out for them wherever they run.

Which brings me to the last part of this blog; and that is a selection from my short list of dogs I might bet in the Irish Derby. I haven’t made up my mind yet and time is getting short (Aug 2nd first rounds) if we are to get any of the fancy prices.

If it is any help, the track record for Shelbourne Park over 550 yards (the Derby distance) is held by Bypass Byway in 29.42sec (58/49 by my
standards).

A pointer may come from Droopys Electric (60/31) who is one I like at 20/1;and who is running in an important race in Ireland 12th July.

I will to back him early as one of my selections.

Come racing!!

Latch on to Door Latch…

…In the Peterborough Veteran’s Derby. Trainer Bob Creckendon’s charge, Door Latch, won its heat over the 420mtrs at Peterborough in 25.44 sec (60/57 by my rating) which was 100th of a second short of the current favourite, Purple Monkey’s time of 25.43 sec (60/54). The best time so far…

I have bet Door Latch at 16/1 (Coral’s odds) to go all the way at ¼ odds 1.2.3.4.

There are further heats to go before the Peterborough final on Friday 21st July and Door Latch is still an incredible Coral price of 8/1 (1.2.3. ¼ odds a place; but vacant trap in the final, revert to SP). Ladbrokes have him at 9/2!

Purple Monkey’s (5/2 F Coral) claims can’t be ignored, but Door Latch, a grade A1 winner, and a local dog, who knows the Peterborough track well and usually runs from trap 1 or 2, will take all the beating!

Looking at my ratings for the Irish Greyhound Derby in my last blog, I have used them to bet a bitch in the Irish Greyhound Oaks. I actually favoured Early Talent(58/91) but it has been withdrawn leaving a trap vacant in the Final so I have reverted to betting my second choice: Tyrur Kitten (59/10). It is at odds of 11/10 and the Final is this coming Sunday At Shelbourne Park. It will be interesting to see how the ratings work out!

Come racing!!

Irish Greyhound Derby…

…It is notoriously difficult to compare performances of greyhounds running over different distances, but I enjoy the challenge using my own methods of evaluation measuring greyhounds performance over 1 metre as explained earlier in my blog.

It’s particularly more difficult in the Irish Greyhound Derby as their races are measured in yards! There aren’t many English racers involved but what there is, I like to compare their performances against the Irish; and as I am more familiar with speeds over metres I have converted the Irish racing times to metric.

It is quite easy; just multiply the yards by 0.9144. For example: 550yds x 0.9144 = 502.92mtrs. After doing that I divide the result (502.92) into the time recorded in seconds; this gives me a category I can relate to that equates to English times.

The Irish Greyhound Derby is not until Sunday 15th Oct so that gives us plenty of time to identify a short list of potential winners and to take a good price.

The short listed dogs I have identified are:-

Catunda Francie (58/15) 40/1; Westmead Eagle (58/72) 66/1; Goldstar Premier (58/93) 40/1; Quick Shift (58/94) ; Tyrur Ted (59/05) 8/1 Jt Fav; Tyrur Kitten (59/10) 40/1; Group Rooster (59/05) 100/1+ ; Bubbly Tojo (59/45) 66/1; Winetavern Oscar (59/47) 33/1; Droops Electric (60/31) 20/1.
Note: Group Rooster is owned by Kieren Fallon. Could it be the K. Fallon the champion jockey?...!

The list could change over time as heats take place etc. Here is the whole list I have compiled (the lower the number on the scale the speedier the dog) ; see what you think about it and make your own selections.

Come racing!!

Catunda Francie 40
58/15 (over 400yds; over 525yds it is 60/30)
Westmead Eagle 66
58/72
He Said So
58/73
Early Talent 50 (bitch)
58/91
Goldstar Premier 40
58/93
Quick Shift 100
58/94
Digital
58/95
Dead Set 50

59/04
Coolboy George 50
59/03
Tyrur Paddy 25
59/03
Dead Set 50
59/04
Droopys Marco
59/05
Astronomic 33
59/05
Tyrur Ted 8/1 Jt F
59/05
Fear Me 33
59/06
Droopys Learoy
59/07
Charity Jack
59/07(current)

Tyrur Kitten 50
59/10
Dustin Fox 50
59/15

Group Rooster
59/21
Yeah Man 8/1 Jt F
59/22
Tallinin 66
59/24

Blue Majestic 66
59/31
Trey United 33
59/34

Roisins Dessie 50
59/41
Large Mac 66
59/43
Superhods Hero 50
59/45
Eskimo Jack 50
59/45
Bubbly Tojo 66
59/45
Ardkill Jamie 25
59/47
WinetavernOscar 25
59/47

Droopys Blanco 100
59/51
Agamemnan 100
59/52
Baliff Diesel
59/53
Campaign Trail
59/55
Great Display 50
59/57
Blackstone Gold 20
59/58
Climates Lisa
59/59

Goldstar Lee 66
59/61
Killough Billy
59/63
Westmead Joe 16
59/64
Ballymac Pires
59/65
Eye King 33
59/68
Farloe Eoin
59/68

Tullow Rumble 100
59/70
Ahane Lad
59/71
Razldazl Billy 16
59/71
Stow Alert 100
59/72
Droopys Mourinho
59/72
Mineola Zeus 25
59/73
Dark Davy 66
59/73
Farloe Roony 100
59/78

Razldazl Pearl 50
59/82
Distant Sparky
59/84
Droopys Wells 20
59/87

Catunda Deano 50
59/93
Mango Tango 50
59/93
Billy Payback
59/96
Holborn Concorde 100
59/97
----------------
Greenwell storm 50
60/02
Hondo Dubh 100
60/02
-----------------
60/10
Shelbourn Becky 50 (this bitch has run a fast time recently; adjust rating)60/12

Benjo
60/20
Droopys Sella 100
60/21
Good Dog Jack 20
60/26

Dalcash Valley 100
60/30
Droopys Electric 20
60/31
Droopys Sabatini
60/36
Tyrur Fracas 50
60/38

Droopys Leah
60/61
Martinston Lass 50
60/65

Brickfield Gypsy
60/83
Borna Magic 50
60/84

Jeffs Star 50
61/12

-------------------------
Redwood Miner 50
61/81
---------------------
Unable to find records of the following:
Adfert Billy 50
Bunboggin Lane 50

Practical use of my Greyhound Derby graph...

I made a graph before the Greyhound Derby to illustrate what is possible to put on it; and to give me a graphical picture of the six dogs' previous runs and also to asses how near Amarillo Slim's form was to Westmead Hawk's.
It revealed, looking at the peaks and troughs, that dog No 1 and dog 6 could be eliminated from calculations as having little or no chance of winning.

If you have read my previous blogs you will understand the markings I have made on the graph but to refresh your memory :

The best time of each dog is written at the top of each column and I have marked each graph with the letters: BT (best time).

I have marked the dog with the best of the best times with a red circle;
the next best time with a red square; and the third best time with a red diamond ( in this case case dogs 3 and 4 are equal times).

The black numbers in each column 4.89; 4.24, 5.04 , etc are the split times which indicate which dogs have the best time trapping and I have marked them in red using Roman Numerals I, II, and III.

The characters at the bottom of the graph in red are to indicate how good the dog is at negotiating the bends. Each time I put 'B' meaning Bend and follow with a remark such as: VG; very good; or B Ex! meaning excellent!; Bx meaning Bends-not good etc. or QG = Quite good.

The bends performance is obtained by examining the race cards.



That's all for now... but you can download a blank graph if you go into the archives on this website and make a graph yourself on any race where dogs have run predominately over the same distance.If you print one off don't forget to laminate it so that you can use it time and time again.

You will notice that the whole numbers (Integers)on the vertical axis are inserted after you have laminated the graph!

Come racing!!  

Amarillo Slim 3rd in the Greyhound Derby…

…the big day came for Amarillo and he ran a great race from trap 5 into third place behind the great Westmead Hawk in trap 4 and Mineola Farloe in trap 2.

I thought the writing was on the wall for Amarillo when he drifted from odds of 7/2 to 6/1 before the off. I figured that there must have been something wrong when the bookies lengthened the odds. Even so, he ran a really good race in a great time of 28.56 sec (by my classification a: 59/50 dog. The Hawk covered the ground in a fantastic 28.44 sec (a 59/25 dog).

I always had Amarillo (he is named after a famous poker player, so I’m told) in mind as 1,2,3,4, place bet and a win would have been a huge bonus at double figure odds. I made a profit with my each-way bets so my objective (each-way thieving bets; as the bookies call them) was made… Mission accomplished; and it looks like this dog is one to follow - perhaps he will run in the Irish derby? Look out for him (his breeding is Knockeven Star – Lemon Sugar).

As a matter of interest my blog post advocating that Amarillo should be bet each-way at decent odds was re-produced on two websites: www.inside-edge-mag.co.uk and www.toalgambler.com - so quite a few people could have bet it; and perhaps made a few bob. The thought of that is very pleasant…It is in the website archives of those mags now.

If you won on it–let me know by commenting on space at the bottom of this blog.

Come racing !!